Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Predicting ACL 2026: Other Big Festivals

I thought I would be very clever and try again to use AI this year to help with a prediction set.  Everything I keep reading tells me that THE GAME IS CHANGING and AI IMPROVES BY A MILLION TIMES EVERY SECOND!!!!  Maybe.  I don't know.  I have honestly been pretty freaked out that it is going to crush my job.  And then I got this response when I tried a query:

Key Findings by Year

2025 (Upcoming)

The 2025 ACL lineup includes headliners Sabrina Carpenter, Hozier, Luke Combs, The Strokes, John Summit, Doechii, and The Killers (replacing Doja Cat).  As this festival hasn't occurred yet, no cross-reference data is available for additional Austin concerts in 2025.

Really?  Do computers not know the date?!?  I had asked it to analyze which artists in the past five years had played ACL but also had a concert in Austin that same year - I wanted to see if we might be able to use that to know the distance required between Moody Center shows and ACL headlining.  You know, for some of the rad things coming to the Moody soon like Nine Inch Nails and Bruce Springsteen.  Well, as you can tell from the above, this shit is dumb.  So, sadly, gotta do the caveman work as usual.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UpoZpMBM9Y

I figured my first view would be to look at a couple of other major festivals and see if I could get a little flavor on who is on the circuit.  Obviously, Lollapalooza is the best indicator, and it's lineup isn't out yet, but maybe I'll do a whole post about that one.  Anyway, let's look at some Fests headliners.

Coachella - Sabrina Carpenter, The XX, Nine Inch Noize, Justin Beiber, The Strokes, Giveon, Karol G, Young Thug, Kaskade

Bonnaroo - (also booked by C3) - The Strokes, Griz, Turnstile, Rufus Du Sol, Teddy Swims, The Neighbourhood, Noah Kahan, Role Model, Kesha

Bottlerock - Lorde, Teddy Swims, Lil Wayne, Foo Fighters, LCD Soundsystem, Zedd, Backstreet Boys, Sombr, Ludacris

Governor's Ball - (also booked by C3) - Lorde, Baby Keem, Stray Kids, Kali Uchis, Asap Rocky, Jennie

Innings Festival (also booked by C3) - Mumford & Sons, Goo Goo Dolls, Myles Smith, Twenty One Pilots, Cage the Elephant, Lord Huron, Blink 182, Sublime, Public Enemy

Shaky Knees (also booked by C3) - not out yet

Jazz Fest - always funky because of how many nights - Eagles, Stevie Nicks, Rod Stewart, Kings of Leon, Lainey Wilson, Teddy Swims, Lorde, Jon Batiste, Tyler Childers, David Byrne, The Black Keys

Bourbon & Beyond - GOD DAMN, HAVE A LINEUP!  Foo Fighters, Mumford & Sons, Chris Stapleton, Dave Matthews Band, Queens of the Stone Age, Kacey Musgraves, The Red Clay Strays, Hootie & The Blowfish (and then also Counting Crows, Goose, Jason Isbell, Gary Clark Jr., The War on Drugs, Portugal the man, Father John Misty - I mean, down in small type you have Vertical Horizon, Our Lady Peace, Jet, Better than Ezra, Tonic, Cracker, and the Verve Pipe.  Holy hell!

Shaky Knees (C3 festival too).  The Strokes, Turnstile, Fontaines DC, Twenty One Pilots, Pierce the Veil, The Prodigy, Gorillaz, LCD Soundsystem, Wu Tang Clan.

Not too many overlapping artists, honestly.  Interesting.  But let's dig into a few:

  • The Strokes.  Here in 2025, so nope.
  • Foo Fighters.  I mean, I love the Foos, but I also feel like they have been the rock headliner too many times.  My hope would be no, and after reviewing their tour dates, it is a no for sure.  They'll be in Australia melting faces.
  • Lorde.  That could be interesting.  She played the Moody last year - my youngest went and said it was the best concert she's ever been to.  She is also playing the three south American Lollas, Lolla Berlin, and a ton of other small festivals that I have never heard of.  Her tour ends on September 1 in Luxembourg, so she has the space and time.  She was last here in 2014, so yeah, this feels like a good call.  Yes.
  • Teddy Swims.  I would be a little bummed if he was a headliner - that one song is great, but then I'm left pretty underwhelmed.  Playing a ton of festivals and his tour ends on July 25.  He was last here in 2024, so I don't see why he would need to come back so soon unless his popularity is somehow popping.  Going with my gut to say no.

Others I feel like inspecting:

  • Nine Inch Noize might be kind of fun - that is Trent Reznor with some German EDM guy called Boys Noize.  Could be good times!  Would they be off the list because of being here in Austin in the next month or so?  Not sure.  Thanks AI.  Feels like a no to me.
  • The XX.  NOPE.  They will be in a very long residency at Madison Square Garden from late August to late October.  Not happening. 
  • Griz.  I have mentioned Griz more than once, and how freaking fun his show in the Tito's tent was a while back.  Semi-generic EDM, but he plays the saxophone and goes nuts with it every once in a while as the beat is beating.  I had a good time.  Anyway, he could make it for weekend one, but he is playing the Seven Stars Festival in Arrington, VA during second weekend.  Feels like a no to me.
  • Turnstile.  Hell yes, please do.  They came though Austin last year and I missed the show, which made me sad, but they are signed up for three Lollas, Coachella, Bonnaroo, and more, with a last tour date of 8/28.  They've never been despite my repeated request in the ACL end of year poll.  Feels good.  I vote yes. But I also vote that they are not in the headliner font.
  • Noah Kahan.  Last date on the calendar is 8/31, and the only Texas date is Arlington at the end of July.  He was last here in 2023.  Feels pretty good to me.  I'm leaning yes.
  • LCD Soundsystem.  Remember when he retired?  I member.  His current tour dates on the website show only March and May dates.  Doesn't really seem like that is much of a tour.  Going to go with no.
  • Baby Keem.  I don't even know what a Baby Keem is.  Just felt like I should look at him or her or it.  He is playing Dallas and Houston in April, and then his last show on this tour is September 18.  That feels pretty well set up for him to come back over the pond after that last show in London and rap our faces off or something in October.  Sure.
  • Asap Rocky.  I don't think I like the new album, but I need to give it more time.  I'm just not sure that he is actually a good rapper.  Oh, nevermind.  He plays Austin on June 19.  Bye!
  • Mumford & Sons.  For crying out loud won't you die?  The beatdown here is that their live show is freaking fun as hell.  But please just give me something new and fun as hell!  9/24-27 at Bourbon and Beyond is the last thing on the calendar right now, so, unfortunately, they've got the time to get here.  I'm voting with my heart and saying no.
  • Twenty One Pilots.  Not really on tour, just hopping around to some festivals.  I feel like that would be really weird, just going to Europe and doing successive nights in the Netherlands, then Germany, then another German town, taking a week off, and then Switzerland and Italy before a week off, and then Belgium and France.  Seems like a lot of weird downtime and then a flurry of action.  Especially when your music is dumb.  Anyway, the last thing on here is the Sommo Festival on 9/11 in something called New Glasgow, PE.  I want to unpack so much from that.  Peru is shortened to PE?  They have a town called New Glasgow down there?  I don't know what to do with this data.  Anyway, my vote is no.
  • Eagles.  Their tour just says SPHERE for months and then tacks on Jazz Fest.  Nope
  • Stevie NicksNope, she plays Austin in April.
  • The Black Keys.  They play New Braunfels in July.  Feels too close, even if not in Austin.  They are out for second weekend for sure, as they will be in Maine and Canada.  I'll go with no.
  • Dave Matthews Band.  Playing the Moody on May 11, so nah.
  • Queens of the Stone Age.  That last show of theirs I saw was weird.  Neat, and interesting, but weird.  Their shows on tour are listed as either with System of a Down or Foo Fighters.  That is a big show.  After Kentucky on 9/24, they play Vegas on 9/26, which would leave them the time to be here.  I feel like they'd need to release new music for people to be interested, and it has been years.  I freaking love them, but saying no for now.
  • The Red Clay Strays.  It seems like bands have been able to play Two Step Inn and then still show up at ACL, so I could see this one.  Their tour has a gap from 9/26 to 10/22, so that feels like a pretty good indicator that they'll show back up for ACL.  Yes.
  • Backstreet Boys.  I mean, I hope not!  There was entirely too much of them involved in the Super Bowl commercials.  Nope, they will be in Germany!
  • Sombr.  Dunno what a Sombr is, but figured it sounded like a hip thing the kids would want to tiktok with.  His last show is 9/12, oh wait, PE is a part of Canada!  Not Peru!  I'm not changing what I said above though.  I don't see it.  Going with no.
So, that could be Red Clay Strays, Lorde, Turnstile, Noah Kahan, and Baby Keem.  And probably freaking Mumford & Sons.  Not an especially exciting start!