His spreadsheet shows a ranking, which I thought used to show the top artists based on the number of festivals and their average position on the poster, but it appears to be broken this year. I just tried to order the spreadsheet based on that column and got a bunch of artists who are listed as being on zero posters. So that seems wrong. So I'll ditch trying to figure out the ranking for anyone, and just go with the raw data of number of festivals to see who will be the festival darlings this year - the thought behind this post is that there are always a few artists who end up playing any and every festival all over the place each year. I'm thinking about someone like Chance the Rapper in 2017, LCD Soundsystem in 2016, Drake in 2015, Outkast in 2014, etc.
So, with Mitchum's spreadsheet in hand, here are some thoughts about who fall into those categories and what I think about their chances to show up in October. But first, a note that we got a handful of these last year, so we won't be seeing The Killers, Portugal. The Man, Tash Sultana, Ron Gallo, Vance Joy, Tank & the Bangas, Rainbow Kitten Surprise, Thundercat, Alex G, Jacob Banks, or Two Feet this year. So, what could we see that everyone else is enjoying?
- Manchester Orchestra. Top poster dweller this year (so far) with 9 posters. Never heard of the band. Mentally thought this was Unknown Mortal Orchestra when I saw it on other posters. Huh. Nothing on their calendar after early August, but going to Lolla and Roo and Shaky, so I'm guessing Yes. They can dwell down in the middle-sized type with the other weird bands.
- The War on Drugs. 7 posters, including Coach but not Lolla or Roo. I previously predicted they would be here in the Critical Darlings post. Their tour now includes dates through the end of the year, which leaves a big gap between mid-September dates and early December dates, so they have a nice chunk of downtime to come to Austin and melt faces. Wow, they last played ACL in 2012? Doesn't seem that long ago. I feel better than mediocre that they'd come, so I'll go with a half-hearted yes.
- The National. 6 posters, including Lolla, Shaky, and Roo. I've now predicted them to come twice, both in the Critical Darlings post and the Live Nation Managed Bands post. Feeling very bullish about them coming to Austin now that they will be at Lolla as well. Their current tour ends on September 25, in perfect time to come to Austin and prepare an epic bummer of a show. Absolutely.
- Odesza. 6 posters, including Coach and Lolla. After having experienced a Red Rocks show last summer, and also knowing the drug intake at EDM shows, one can only imagine that the State of Colorado is going to need to declare a state of emergency and get the National Guard on the ground for their two June shows at Red Rocks. Pray for the children. I don't know this music at all, but ACL is going to need an electronic "headliner," so this looks to fit the bill. I'll go with a yes.
- Melt! Festival
- Truck Fump Festival
- Down the Rabbit Hole
- We the Fest
- Tyler the Creator. 6 posters, including Coach and Lolla. Done with his tour in August. I looked at him before he was named to the Lolla lineup and figured that he might come through based on the Critical Darlings list. I guess I'll stick with that prediction, nothing has changed that I see. Yes.
- St. Vincent. 6 posters, including Coach and Lolla (three in a row for that exact phrase). I had recently considered her candidacy for ACL and said no, because she couldn't even sell out two shows at the Moody here in Austin in February. I still think that logic makes sense, why would there be excitement for her to come right back when she couldn't sell out this same year on this same tour. But now that her tour includes Lolla and ends in mid-September, it sure looks like we should expect her in early October. Yes.
- Brockhampton. Surprised they are only on 6 posters, I mentally feel like they are everywhere. And if you look at their website, looks like they are playing more than 20 festivals this year. Those just aren't big enough to make Mitchum's report. And are done in late August. I'm just almost certain they will be here. Got their start down the road in San Marcos, playing all the big fests (Coach, Roo, and Lolla), I've got this one on lock. Yes.
- Eminem. 5 posters, including Coach and Roo, but thankfully not Lolla. As I've stated a few times, I really hope we don't have to suffer through Eminem again, but let's look at the winds one more time. God his new album sucks. His tour ends in London on July 15, as of now, so he has the time. But with no Lollapalooza headliner slot, I think we are safe from a reprise of the lip sync fest from a few years ago. No.
- Jack White. 5 posters, including Lolla and Shaky Knees. The problem is that Austin 360 Amphitheater show he has scheduled for May 2. Tickets are still available for that show, revealing a lack of demand for the guy. And its only 5 months before ACL, which also would seem to point at a lack of demand. But I already predicted he would be here in my Live Nation Bands post, and with him being named as a headliner for Lolla and Shaky, it just seems like he will be included for us as well. His current tour dates end in late August. Going with yes.
- Khalid. 5 posters, including Roo and Lolla. I would be shocked if Khalid wasn't on the ACL bill. Texas boy, blowing up worldwide, showing up on many festival lineups, I'd just be amazed if C3 missed out on him. Although, yet again, he has a May show in Austin (well, Cedar Park) that still has tickets available, belying both demand and excitement for October. But personally, I just think Khalid checks too many boxes for ACL to miss adding him - highly popular right now, never played ACL before, youthful songs, crossover appeal between many demographics. Absolutely.
- Post Malone. 5 posters, including Coach and Lolla. An even more stern test of my thought that a touring show close to the ACL dates equals no slot at the fest. This doofus has a June 16 show at the Austin 360, which is not sold out. So my instinct is no - he sucks, he is playing four months before the Fest, and can't sell out that show. But the same things hold true here as they do for Khalid - highly popular right now, never played ACL, both old dudes and young kids have probably heard his garbage radio hits. The last show on his tour is Sept. 14 in California, so he has perfect timing to be in Austin, and is already on the Lolla poster, so I'll go with yes. He also can hang on the 9th row with Manchester Orchestra.
- Fleet Foxes. 5 posters, although no Lolla or Roo, only Shaky Knees. I'm a dorky fanboy for these dudes - I'd love to see them again - but nothing in their touring schedule makes it feel like they'd be here. No major festivals and their tour appears to end in Europe at a bunch of small fests. Going to say No for now.
- Greta Van Fleet. 5 posters, including Lolla, Shaky, and Coach. More importantly, playing Stubbs in the next month AND its sold out. Tour is over in September. They are totally going to be here. Lock it in.
- Arctic Monkeys. 4 posters, including Lolla. Already guessed that they would be here from my Live Nation post, and I'm still feeling it. Especially now that they have been named to play Lolla. Their tour ends in August, so they've got the time, and I just think they match the rock and roll ethos of the ACL world well. Yes.
- SZA 4 posters, including Coach but no Roo, Shaky, or Lolla. I already talked about her on the Critical Darlings post, and begrudgingly included her in my list of people who would come. But now that she is not going to be at Lolla, and she will be in Austin in May at the Austin 360, I'm just not feeling it. I think she makes sense to pander to the youth vote for the fest, and she really is the major critical darling from last year, but without also including Lolla on her schedule that seems unlikely. Why wouldn't she be booked to play both? Undecided, but now leaning no.
- David Byrne. 4 posters, including Coach and Shaky but no Lolla. Dang. Before he failed to make the Lolla poster, I thought he was going to be a lock for the fall in Austin. He's doing the other big shows and the south American Lollas, so it made sense. I was almost thinking that we might get a Talking Heads reunion as a big nostalgia draw that would blow all minds. Well, his tour shows three nights in June in Chicago, so maybe that took the place of a Lolla slot? Huh. He is playing in Dallas on October 6, which is the Saturday night of the first weekend of ACL. That looks absolutely tailor made for him to be a Friday night headliner in Austin and then drive up 35 on Saturday morning. Yes, I'm going for it. Friday night sub-headliner.
- Anderson Paak & the Free Nationals. 4 posters, with only Roo being a major one. I will not subject you to his website, because it is going to BLARE yacht rock at you as soon as you enter, but I'll let you know that the last things currently on his calendar are overseas performances at festivals (and they don't even list Bonnaroo on that website, which is odd). He claims to be releasing a new album (maybe two) this year, so he could have some buzz by October (which I don't feel at all right now). Uhhhh, I guess my instinct is to go with no.
- Dua Lipa. 4 posters, including Roo and Lolla (and Lolla Paris). Had no clue who this was when I started a Rolling Stone article about her last week. Now I realize that my kids want to hear her hit song all the time and I dislike it in a deep and primal way. She is doing an international tour right now, with stops in Dallas and Houston, but none in Austin. Last thing on her calendar right now is Ireland at the start of September, so she has the time to be here. Since she is at Lolla, I'll lean towards yes.
- Margo Price. 4 posters, none major. I included her on my list because I sure would like to see her again, she is super good and played the hell out of a set two years ago, but nothing out there really points to her being at ACL. (although she is playing the Ryman in Nashville for three nights in May, and then Red Rocks with Lyle Lovett in September - ROAD TRIP - who is with me?). She is part of Willie's Fourth of July festival in July, so I'll go with no.
OK, folks. Where does this set us? Add to the list of other people I expect to come here:
- David Byrne
- Manchester Orchestra
- The War on Drugs
- The National
- Odesza
- Tyler the Creator
- St. Vincent
- Brockhampton
- Jack White
- Khalid
- Post Malone
- Arctic Monkeys
- Greta Van Fleet
- Dua Lipa.
Wait. I pretty much just agreed that every single band on this blog is coming here. 🙄🙄🙄 Hard hitting investigative journalism right here... Whatever, just because its crazy doesn't mean it isn't true.
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