Predicting ACL 2018: Recent Radio Uptick

In my final prediction set, I brought up a new theory I have been rolling around in my head.  I said:

Recent Radio Uptick:I may be the only one who gets this tickle in my brain, but I feel like the radio starts to overplay certain bands at random, as though they have been given a preview of the ACL lineup (very possible), and told to get people hyped up for bands by playing deep cut music repeatedly.  This makes sense to me - if ACL wants the people to feel hyped when the lineup releases, priming the pump by having people remember that they like The Killers would be a good idea. 

I first had this thought a few weeks ago when it felt like I had heard the Talking Heads more than usual when driving my kids to school in the morning.  Maybe they have been playing "Burning Down the House" and "Once in a Lifetime" all the time, and I'm only just now thinking of it because I'm writing this blog.  Or maybe David Byrne's tasty new album caused some music directors to dust off Remain in Light and give it another spin.  I dunno.  But it feels suspicious.  

At the time, I mentioned Talking Heads, the Cure, and Florence and the Machine as my suspects for this.  I don't actually think they are coming to ACL, but I ran through them as potential possibilities based on this new theory of prediction.

But then moments later I heard three people I'd predicted to be at ACL this year playing on the radio:  an old Franz Ferdinand cut, a recent War on Drugs song, and a deep cut from the National (from that Dead tribute they did a few years back).  That seems very suspicious to me.

I have no clue how to research this, but I'm going to give it a shot right now and then think about it some more for the future.

Let's look at The National as an example.  I'm pretty certain they will be at ACL.

Today, KUTX has played the National three times:

• 12:43 pm - "Morning Dew"
• 9:24 am - "Mistaken for Strangers"
• 6:42 am - "Fake Empire"

Of note, none of those are from a new release, or even from last year's Sleep Well Beast, they are from 2007's Boxer or that 2016 Day of the Dead tribute album.

Meanwhile, if you search the KUTX archives (which are sadly flawed and may not really be working properly), the last time they heavily played The National was in March 2014, just prior to a three night run at the Moody Theater in April 2014, when KUTX had a run of playing a National song or two almost every single day.  After that 2014 show, they don't play The National for an entire year, until June 2015.  Telling.  And then, unfortunately, the KUTX archives searching function shows that no National song has been played since July 9, 2015 (which is obviously untrue since today's playlist shows three plays).  

Now, several things could be causing this uptick in plays for this particular band.

1. I'm right.  C3 gave KUTX the lineup and has asked that KUTX shuffle through some of the big bands on there to whet the people's collective appetites.
2. I'm sorta right.  C3 gave the lineup to KUTX but didn't ask for anything, and KUTX has taken it on themselves to pimp the chosen bands.
3. I'm sorta right, but also totally wrong.  The fine people at KUTX can also read the internet and make guesses about who might show up at ACL, and maybe they have likewise predicted The National, so they're digging back into the crates on their own to spread the gospel so they can be like "we've been playing them a ton!  We're hip!"
4. Random chance.  It's not like The National are out of character for the indie/hippie/Austin vibe on KUTX.  Maybe a full copy of the archive would show that they always get 3 plays every 6 hours and are the official band of KUTX?  Seems unlikely, but could be.

Also, KUTX just played, as I am writing this, a cover version of the Talking Heads' "Burning Down the House."  I swear to God, Matt Reilly, if you are somehow trolling me, I will come stick check your hip into an assisted living facility.  I doubt you even know this blog exists, but I know where you live, man.

Meanwhile, I also just checked the playlist for Sun Radio.  Guess what they have been playing today?  58 minutes ago, The National's "The System Only Dreams in Darkness."  Their playlist only goes back two hours, so I can't see what else they have been up to today, or compare it to historical information, but that sure smells fishy.

I have tweeted KUTX to see if they can fix their archives (you can't say I'm not committed to my nerdy quest here), and in the interim, I plan to search for other ways of telling how radio plays change over time in the Austin market.  If their archives show me everything, then I ought to be able to go back and look at April 2017 and see how that looks in reference to the announced lineup in early May.  Hold tight, more to come.