Happy Prediction Season! I'm super late to the game this year. I don't know what is up, but for some reason, I just haven't been all that fired up about digging through band's touring schedules and making predictions. I suspect that starting the process will get my rocks off all over again, but I definitely think I am going to bag a few of my prior prediction models. First, no way am I doing the whole Live Nation bands post again. Just about every band on the planet is now represented by Live Nation or one of its affiliates, so running through that list just becomes an exercise in looking at every band that exists.
But I also have a few other ideas of new prediction methods I can try. Who knows, one might actually work! For this first one, I thought I would look for the old people music choice of the year. Last year it was Paul McCartney (and to some extent, David Byrne) who made the Festival into a must-see for die hard music people, regardless of genre. 2017 didn't have anyone like that (although I would argue that Jay-Z acted like he was a 76 year old just there to get the check and get back on the bus). 2016 had Willie Nelson (and to some extent, LCD Soundsystem and Radiohead) as the old school legacy act you needed to see one more time before he dies. So, who might be our non-currently popular headliner this year? I previously predicted Dead & Company. Which I still think would be rad. They have a 2019 tour bouncing around the US, with one Texas date in Dallas on July 2. After that, they only have two more shows, both in Boulder in early July. That would leave them room to play Lolla at the start of August and ACL at the start of October. So, for now, it is still possible. I'd like the prediction more if they had dates that ran right up to October, but for now I'll leave it at maybe. Elton John. Elton's Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour started back in September and included past dates in both Houston and Dallas, but none in Austin. By May, the tour will head across the Atlantic for a long string of European dates, but then he has the entirety of August off (when Lollapalooza happens) before restarting American dates in September. BUT, weekend one (10-4 - 10/6) is pretty well booked with two shows in Canada on Friday and Saturday nights. That means he could ostensibly play on Sunday night as the big dog closer of the weekend, and weekend two is entirely open, but I don't see other times on his touring schedule where he fires up three nights in a row. AND IT WOULD SUCK for them to just book him for weekend two and not both weekends. So I'm feeling like this one is pretty unlikely. Which kinda sucks, I'd be down for this one. Rolling Stones. Their tour isn't a farewell one, but I guess they all could be the last one at this stage and age for these dudes. They play Houston on April 28, but no other Texas shows on the tour. They play two dates in June at Soldier Field in Chicago, so a Lolla headliner spot doesn't make much sense. Their tour peters out in June. This would be massive, like I almost went ahead and bought Jazz Fest tickets thinking it would be worth it to see the Stones one last time. But I don't see how this makes any sense with their current touring schedule. If they add more shows, then maybe we'll revisit. Nope. Kiss. All it takes is for me to see that they are playing Corpus Christi and I realize that these guys aren't really all that big of a deal. Probably there are still people who love them, but it wouldn't jazz me up all that much for them to be on the ACL bill. They're more famous for the outfits and face-paint than their actual music. They have a handful of Texas dates right now in mid-February, and then they come back to San Antonio and Houston in September. They skip over Austin, and the entirety of October is open in between US dates and a Australian leg of their tour. Interesting. The Lolla weekend is also open on their calendar. I guess this one could fit. Meh. Aerosmith. Man, I loved me some Aerosmith back in the day. "Back in the Saddle" used to get me all sorts of riled up and ready to fight. They went off the rails in the mid-90's, but their stable of hits is unquestionable. They are on a Las Vegas residency deal right now, with dates at the same place in Vegas from April through the end of July, and then September through the end of the year. But, that includes dates on Oct. 3 and 6, which bookend the weekend one dates. But the second weekend is available. They could do Friday or Saturday of first weekend, but then would have a show either the day before or the day after in Vegas. Which likely isn't impossible - they're likely playing a setlist that has calcified into stone anyway - but isn't especially likely. Their tour schedule doesn't show any of those residency nights going back-to-back, and I'm sure they are getting generously paid, so I don't see any reason to hustle down to Texas for a back-to-back show for a semi-interested crowd of kids who just want to see Offset from Migos so that they can take molly and mosh. No. The Cure. The Cure said that they were going to play 20 festivals in 2019, although the quote is that most will be in Europe. But not all! So they very well could come back to ACL again for another appearance. They were very cool a few years back, but if I'm being honest I feel like I pretty well saw them. With no new music or anything interesting, not sure I need to see that same show again. Those festival dates start in March in South Africa, and bounce all over Europe over the summer (including a date smack dab in the midst of Lolla Chicago) with dates in Japan and Moscow included. 23 total shows listed on that website. Last one is August 23, so they have the time on their schedule to show up in Austin, but without any other indication, I don't see why they would. No. George Strait. I mean, this is just wishful thinking. He wouldn't get the same reception as anyone else on this list - even if he is the MAN with regard to modern country music. He purportedly retired a few years ago, but his touring page shows a handful of shows this year. None conflict with ACL dates, so this is theoretically possible. I don't buy it. No. Fleetwood Mac. They just played Austin, for a sold out (and apparently amazing) show. I probably should have jumped on those tickets... But I also don't think that a show by this particular band here in Austin is going to dampen any excitement for them showing up at ACL. They're a big enough name with big enough hits that I don't see it being an issue. Their schedule shows a gap in early August that could fit Lolla, and then the end of their tour shows as September 21. So they have the time to be here in October. And the popularity as well. That would be a pretty great one, so let's just embrace the unknown and go with Maybe. Bruce Springsteen. Nope. Which blows, but I'll just keep on hoping for future years. Billy Joel. He's playing smack dab in the middle of weekend two, in Arlington. Which meant my first instinct was an automatic no, but if you really think about it, then he could easily be the big Sunday night closer, or the nostalgic Friday night opener, and then just bop on up to Dallas to play his other show. Huh. In my opinion, he's not nearly the draw that Elton or Fleetwood or most of these old bands are, but at the same time, singing "Piano Man" and "Captain Jack" at the top of my lungs with 70,000 other people would be pretty sweet. Huh, again. I guess I'll go with Maybe for now. Ozzy Ozbourne. He's on the "No More Tours 2" tour, trying to further milk nostalgia for his brand, and purportedly hanging it up after this one. He just cancelled a bunch of tour dates to deal with sickness, so Australia, New Zealand, and Japan are without his old man rocking for now. I also have to note that he is playing something called Rocklahoma in May, which means that this "final" tour is the kind of sad, dying rattle usually reserved for casinos and state fairs. His tour ends at the end of July, so theoretically he could show up at both Lolla and ACL. I may be biased, because I think he kind of sucks, but I'm just going to go with a no for this one, even though he has the time and space to do it. Bob Seger. Another dude purportedly on his final tour ever (we'll see), but he will be in Austin at the Erwin Center on March 7. Last year, I did a study on the timing for bands to come to Austin prior to ACL and still make the lineup, and while I generally discovered that there is no hard and fast rule, I think that March is early enough to not make an artist banned from October, as it has happened a lot to have someone come through for SXSW and then still end up here for ACL. But would people even care about big Bob coming to town? Not so sure. He has a bunch of classic rock hits, but I don't feel like many of them have captured the all-ages zeitgeist like others of these old classics have. Also, his final shows of this tour are in June, with three nights in a row in his hometown of Detroit, so I suspect that is going to be his big finale. It would seem weird for him to go do that big trio of hometown shows and then later play ACL too. No. Queen + Adam Lambert. With the huge popularity of Queen right now, after the biopic and awards season lavishing the movie with praise, this feels like a great idea. Well, assuming that Lambert is actually good with the rest of the band, which I don't know about, but either way this would seem exciting to all ages. Their tour cranks right through the Lolla dates, so they're not going to go there. But it ends well before ACL's dates, so they have the room to show up in Austin. They play Houston and Dallas on this tour, but nothing in Austin or San Antonio. Some fake ass Queen band will be playing Austin in June, but not the real thing. Makes total sense for them to come and be the power nostalgia act that everyone would enjoy. I'll include them as a Maybe as well. The Who. Their tour takes them to Dallas and Denver just before weekend one, and then they play L.A. on Friday and Sunday of weekend two. I think that makes this one unlikely, so I'll say no. Bob Dylan. Appears to be on his neverending tour for all time, but this year looks to be all Europe all the time. I guess I'll go with a no. The Eagles. The tour is out of the States by now, in Europe and Australia, and ends in July. So again, they could have the time to do it, but would they? I still hold that The Big Lebowski killed their ability to grab the Gen X and Millennial generations. So even though this one looks technically possible, I'm going to go with no.
I left off some hard rock stuff like Slayer and Judas Priest, but these days who the hell really knows what the genre of ACL is anymore. With Metallica and Camilla Cabello sharing a bill last year with Travis Scott and Paul McCartney, pretty much anything is in play. Who knows? And I know I'm super copping out with the maybe answers, but we are so early in the year that nothing is published for a lot of these tours past the summer. Once we get a few months closer, we'll see if any new news would help discern who its gonna be. In order of likelihood for them actually being on the poster, here are the five that pass on from this post:
Okkervil River - In the Rainbow Rain. Taking a page from the book of Arctic Monkeys, this band went full lounge singer with this one, and it blows. I recall this band (from the Austin area) being more rock/Americana-based and kind of rad, but this is sad and slow and treacly. "Don't Move Back to LA" is probably the best one, with a more country feel, and unsurprisingly has the most streams at 1.0 million.
Moving on. Anderson .Paak - Oxnard. Paak has a very cool flow, a great singing voice, and generally goes with an upbeat, sunny sound on his stuff that I really like. "Headlow" is a lovely, funky little ode to oral sex that ends with a car accident that he ignores for a bit to just finish his business. "Mansa Musa" has a Nicki Minaj-soundalike rapper named Cocoa Sarai and an odd sounding Dr. Dre, but the better G-Funk cameo is "Anywhere" with Snoop. "Tints" is like Paak's best stuff from his last album, a low-key Stevie Wonder keyboard funk odyssey that features a medium good verse from Kendrick Lamar. That's the hit at 34.9 million streams.
Dark ass video, and the more I listen to the song, the less I think I have any clue what it is about. About him needing to hide from public view? But then he's talking about the goons on his payroll doing work? Not real sure. Either way, fun song for sure. "6 Summers" starts out with a line that keeps popping back up in my head - "Trump's got a love child, and I hope that bitch is buck wild," with a Jefferson Airplane-sounding bass wiggle in the background. This is a very solid album - kind of surprised it didn't pop up as a top album of last year on anyone's list. Tom Morello - The Atlas Underground. Oh, hey, a new album from the Rage Against the Machine guitarist? Cool, I bet its
Oh God. My ears. The opening riffs are just what I expect, and then all hell breaks loose when they throw the real instruments into a volcano of generic EDM squiggles and squonks. Make sure you get to the drop-type-thing at 1:30. Oh no! There is also a bad one with Portugal the Man, a terrible thing featuring Marcus Mumford, a crap Steve Aoki one that reminds me of a screamed version of some 80's song over trash dubstep beats, and a bunch of other techno trash. Oh God, the Portugal the Man one just came on again and its so ploddingly wretched. Die, vile ear weed! Eric Church - Desperate Man. This dude walks the thin line between garbage Nashville and cool outlaw country juuuuuuuuuuust so. I love his old song "Springsteen" a ton, and some of his other old stuff has worked really well. But also some of his old stuff is a little too intentionally BAD ASSSSS! and ends up being gross. This album keep that pace up just right. Like, "Heart Like a Wheel" is cheesy and not great. And "Monsters," with its heavy twang and obtuse imagery, also jars me from enjoying the album. But then "Some Of It" is kinda nice, and "Desperate Man" is pretty good. "Hippie Radio" is a good dose of nostalgia and storytelling that I like. That title track has the most streams - $18.8 million - which pales in comparison to other songs in his top ten.
Got a Stones-ey vibe with those bongos and hoots at the start, and then the bassline kicks in with the chorus, and it makes the song. I like it. But honestly, after running through it five or so more times, I don't much care for the album as a whole.
Love when a surprise show can come together and be great. A friend hit me up to go to this show, last minute, and the wife was able and willing to step outside of her comfort zone of chilling on the couch in her jammies to go with me even though neither of us knew the band. In fact, that might be the only thing to change - as my friend Joseph noted - the guy needs a stage name. The whole night, I couldn't recall if his name was Nate or Matt or Mark, and kept using different names for him.
The best part? This guy is legitimately funny. Like, laugh out loud repeatedly stuff. He talked about going into Whole Foods, and all the beautiful people there, and then someone in the audience yelled that Central Market was better, and he went into this funny riff about the two stores and how CM has a super shitty name. He had this gigantic spinning wheel that he used to pick songs, with his biggest hits listed in some slots, then things like Shit I Never Play or Audience Choice or Cover. He'd spin it and then crack jokes as it buzzed around to a song. Highly entertaining stuff. And the music is legitimately good. If you listen to the studio albums, there is more of the instrumentation - drum machines and snaps and whatever. Crazy thing about this show is that is was just him and a dude in a bowtie on stage, with Nathanson playing guitar and singing, and the other guy either also playing guitar or hiding out in the back of the stage to play keyboard. Very simple, but great lyrics and songs that were either poignantly sad/ nostalgic or very funny. he also did a cool thing where he mixed in bits of covers in the middle of his own tunes - like a chunk of U2 or The Killers right in the midst of his own song. He also played a lovely chunk of Paul Simon's "Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes" and riffed some on how hardcore those lyrics are. Then he called Simon a motherfucker and said this next song is not that good, going into one of his own. Hard to believe I had never even heard of the guy before. Spotify says he gets over a million streams a month, his show was totally sold out, he played Red Rocks last fall, and everyone in the audience sang along to the tunes. The world is crazy full of talented musicians. Very fun night for the wife and me.
Hop Along - Bark Your Head Off, Dog. Instant winner for favorite album title of the year. I can't stop saying it out loud, in a very disdainful voice. Almost a Napoleon Dynamite voice. Bark Your Head Off, Dog! GOSH! I'm in love with that title. I plan to take it out for a nice dinner at a fine new Austin restaurant and let my eyes linger just a touch too long on its comma. This is a Philly band, with a female lead singer, and kind of a sad, confessional bend to their indie rock tunes. Sorta Sleater Kinney- ish, but less grating and more pleasant, with the vocals frequently sounding like they are straining the lead singer's voice right up to the edge of her ability. The top track is the album opener, "How Simple," with 2.7 million streams.
I especially like when the dance breaks out right about 1:15 - that is when this one keeps grabbing my attention at work and making me look over to check the band name. Follows in the footsteps of indie ladies like Mitski's "Nobody." "Somewhere a Judge" is also a good one, as is "Prior Things." Pretty solid album. I'll hold on to it, Dog. Turbowolf - The Free Life. You know something is tasty when you look up from work to exclaim: "fuck yeah! kick a hole in the sky, baby!" This just actually happened to me as I listened to "Capital X" from this album. Gimme all that fuzzed out rock and roll. Just crush it up using the bottom of an old whiskey bottle and dump it right into my ears. This is in the wheelhouse of Royal Blood (check out "Domino") and White Stripes (try "Cheap Magic") or Death From Above, and a bunch of other balls out cock rock stuff. And I'm eating it up. I think this one came to me from Keith Law, and I'm bummed that I didn't know it better at the end of the year because it might have cracked my top ten for 2018. (aside, someone please remind me to make a list as I go this year, it will make year end so much easier next year). "Domino" is the hit so far, with 1.4 million streams.
Crunchy and fuzzed out guitar, throbbing and vein-y bass. Very into it. Going to keep this one and hug it and then keep it in my pocket so it will stay warm. King Tubby - King Tubbys Meets Rockers Uptown. [sic] If you dig some reggae shit, and you want to go deeper into the glorious hole that is dub, then this is the good shit. He's got about 80 billion albums, but this is the the one that was suggested in Rolling Stone the other day, so I went with it. Very cool. Reminds me a little of some of the Gorillaz stuff they have done with these sorts of sounds. I expect that just about every one of these songs has been used to back up a rap, but if not, then people need to get on their horse and make it happen.
Like that one ("Keep on Dubbing") all of these are generally instrumental, with maybe some random-sounding vocal yelps and fillers. Anyone who is into reggae even a little bit should dig this stuff. Also, his Spotify bio says he was murdered outside his house in 1989. Which is a bummer. I'll save it and break it out the next time someone tells me they love reggae (which is an event I think will almost assuredly never ever happen). Sleep - Dopesmoker. I just feel like you should know that an album exists that is 2 songs long, with the first song lasting one hour and three minutes, and it is just a droning, sludgy, grinding, throbbing shipment of molten psych metal meditation. Not necessarily suggesting it, just kind of amazed by its existence. Although, its kinda rad in its own way.
Pretty sure he keeps saying "proceeds the Weedians to Nazareth!!!" which mixes all sorts of story lines in a pleasing way. Just finished it again, and its kind of freaking amazing. I think you'd go insane if you actually listened to it consistently, but you should try it just once to see what happens.
The Greatest Showman: Reimagined. I don't know about your household, but if I looked up the re-viewings of this movie on our electronic devices, mainly by my eight year old, it would not shock me if it was over 100 times. She has watched this freaking movie so so very many times. And I liked it well enough, but one viewing got me to a pretty solid understanding. So, I have also heard these songs a good number of times - from the backseat, from the living room, from Alexa - and so this pop star covers version of the soundtrack makes pretty solid sense. The downfall of the album is that everyone is pretty much just doing an exact re-creation of the original song. So Panic! At the Disco does "The Greatest Show," pretty much just like the original. P!nk does "A Million Dreams," and while her voice is great and all that, its pretty much just the same song with an orchestral and piano tune. Zac Brown Band makes "From Now On" worse by countri-fying it, and "This is Me" gets a cool twist with a verse from Missy Elliott, but most of this is pretty un-reimagined. The straight-forward "Rewrite the Stars" done by James Arthur and Anne-Marie is the most streamed, at 69.2 million.
Weird that they auto-tuned Arthur so much - his voice should be able to handle those notes. Maybe they just did it for show, but it is annoying to me. Almost as annoying as all of the shots of Anne-Marie making sexy eyes at the camera as she just sits there and waits for Arthur to finish his verse. That version of the song kinda sucks. Tracks very closely to the original, but too much auto-tune and breathy false urgency. I'm going to show this album to the kids, but I don't need it for myself. Queen Latifah - All Hail the Queen. Of course I know who Queen Latifah is, but I don't think I've ever tried any of her albums, I've just known about her as a pop culture rapper and actress. Threw this one into the Q, and some of these songs are legitimately great. "Ladies First," of course, but also "Dance for Me," "Mama Gave Birth to Soul Children" (with De La Soul), "Wrath of the Madness," and "Princess of the Posse" are all solid. She's got a great flow, I wish I had gotten more in to back in the day.
Weird thing? The video version of that song is what I remember, starting off (and later coming back in the middle) with those ladies voices singing the name of the song. The album version doesn't have that hook in it, which is super weird. Made me question whether or not I remembered my memories of this song. ooooooooh ladies first, ladies first. Great tune. Going to keep a few of these and let the rest go. Kasey Chambers - Campfire. Before I was obsessed with Kacey Musgraves, I was obsessed with Kasey Chambers. The Captain and Barricades & Brickwalls were excellent Americana/alt country tunes around the turn of the century. This however? Sucks on furry Wallaby toes. Her voice grates right on through my soul and I can't take it anymore. The most streams is at 82k, so everyone else has the same feeling for sure. Here it is, the album opener, streamed before most people ran for the hills. "Campfire Song."
I guess her voice sounded like that back in the day too, but it sure seems like it has gotten more strident. Out. The Midnight Hour - The Midnight Hour. A friend suggested this album to me, and I now question that friend's entire musical worldview. Its not horrible or anything, but this guy made it out to be a rap fiend's dream, something right up my alley. Instead, its a jazzy set of songs that mostly feature mediocre raps or sung hooks. The only one that catches my ear is the CeeLo Green powered "Questions." Which only probably catches my ear because it was almost entirely used on Kendrick Lamar's untitled album a few years ago as the backing track for his track #6. So this version just spins out more of the CeeLo and removes the Kendrick verses.
You have Ali Shaheed Mohammad, a portion of rap God group Tribe Called Quest. Then you have Adrian Younge, a producer who made one of those boss Ghostface Killah records from a few years back. They combine for this cinematic, soulful, jazzy background music. CeeLo kills it, cleans it, and then stuffs it to put on my wall. But most of these cats (the freaking Lil Wayne-sounding Bilal is horrible) kill it and then mangle it and treat it like Tommy Boy did to that roll he wanted to love. Or, they just end up boring - its 20 freaking songs and an hour long. So, know that when you commit to this, you are going to be hearing very similar-sounding jazzy Luke Cage rhythms for the next full hour, with very little variance. No thanks.
