I'm super late to the game this year. I don't know what is up, but for some reason, I just haven't been all that fired up about digging through band's touring schedules and making predictions. I suspect that starting the process will get my rocks off all over again, but I definitely think I am going to bag a few of my prior prediction models. First, no way am I doing the whole Live Nation bands post again. Just about every band on the planet is now represented by Live Nation or one of its affiliates, so running through that list just becomes an exercise in looking at every band that exists.
But I also have a few other ideas of new prediction methods I can try. Who knows, one might actually work! For this first one, I thought I would look for the old people music choice of the year. Last year it was Paul McCartney (and to some extent, David Byrne) who made the Festival into a must-see for die hard music people, regardless of genre. 2017 didn't have anyone like that (although I would argue that Jay-Z acted like he was a 76 year old just there to get the check and get back on the bus). 2016 had Willie Nelson (and to some extent, LCD Soundsystem and Radiohead) as the old school legacy act you needed to see one more time before he dies. So, who might be our non-currently popular headliner this year?
I previously predicted Dead & Company. Which I still think would be rad. They have a 2019 tour bouncing around the US, with one Texas date in Dallas on July 2. After that, they only have two more shows, both in Boulder in early July. That would leave them room to play Lolla at the start of August and ACL at the start of October. So, for now, it is still possible. I'd like the prediction more if they had dates that ran right up to October, but for now I'll leave it at maybe.
Elton John. Elton's Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour started back in September and included past dates in both Houston and Dallas, but none in Austin. By May, the tour will head across the Atlantic for a long string of European dates, but then he has the entirety of August off (when Lollapalooza happens) before restarting American dates in September. BUT, weekend one (10-4 - 10/6) is pretty well booked with two shows in Canada on Friday and Saturday nights. That means he could ostensibly play on Sunday night as the big dog closer of the weekend, and weekend two is entirely open, but I don't see other times on his touring schedule where he fires up three nights in a row. AND IT WOULD SUCK for them to just book him for weekend two and not both weekends. So I'm feeling like this one is pretty unlikely. Which kinda sucks, I'd be down for this one.
Rolling Stones. Their tour isn't a farewell one, but I guess they all could be the last one at this stage and age for these dudes. They play Houston on April 28, but no other Texas shows on the tour. They play two dates in June at Soldier Field in Chicago, so a Lolla headliner spot doesn't make much sense. Their tour peters out in June. This would be massive, like I almost went ahead and bought Jazz Fest tickets thinking it would be worth it to see the Stones one last time. But I don't see how this makes any sense with their current touring schedule. If they add more shows, then maybe we'll revisit. Nope.
Kiss. All it takes is for me to see that they are playing Corpus Christi and I realize that these guys aren't really all that big of a deal. Probably there are still people who love them, but it wouldn't jazz me up all that much for them to be on the ACL bill. They're more famous for the outfits and face-paint than their actual music. They have a handful of Texas dates right now in mid-February, and then they come back to San Antonio and Houston in September. They skip over Austin, and the entirety of October is open in between US dates and a Australian leg of their tour. Interesting. The Lolla weekend is also open on their calendar. I guess this one could fit. Meh.
Aerosmith. Man, I loved me some Aerosmith back in the day. "Back in the Saddle" used to get me all sorts of riled up and ready to fight. They went off the rails in the mid-90's, but their stable of hits is unquestionable. They are on a Las Vegas residency deal right now, with dates at the same place in Vegas from April through the end of July, and then September through the end of the year. But, that includes dates on Oct. 3 and 6, which bookend the weekend one dates. But the second weekend is available. They could do Friday or Saturday of first weekend, but then would have a show either the day before or the day after in Vegas. Which likely isn't impossible - they're likely playing a setlist that has calcified into stone anyway - but isn't especially likely. Their tour schedule doesn't show any of those residency nights going back-to-back, and I'm sure they are getting generously paid, so I don't see any reason to hustle down to Texas for a back-to-back show for a semi-interested crowd of kids who just want to see Offset from Migos so that they can take molly and mosh. No.
The Cure. The Cure said that they were going to play 20 festivals in 2019, although the quote is that most will be in Europe. But not all! So they very well could come back to ACL again for another appearance. They were very cool a few years back, but if I'm being honest I feel like I pretty well saw them. With no new music or anything interesting, not sure I need to see that same show again. Those festival dates start in March in South Africa, and bounce all over Europe over the summer (including a date smack dab in the midst of Lolla Chicago) with dates in Japan and Moscow included. 23 total shows listed on that website. Last one is August 23, so they have the time on their schedule to show up in Austin, but without any other indication, I don't see why they would. No.
George Strait. I mean, this is just wishful thinking. He wouldn't get the same reception as anyone else on this list - even if he is the MAN with regard to modern country music. He purportedly retired a few years ago, but his touring page shows a handful of shows this year. None conflict with ACL dates, so this is theoretically possible. I don't buy it. No.
Fleetwood Mac. They just played Austin, for a sold out (and apparently amazing) show. I probably should have jumped on those tickets... But I also don't think that a show by this particular band here in Austin is going to dampen any excitement for them showing up at ACL. They're a big enough name with big enough hits that I don't see it being an issue. Their schedule shows a gap in early August that could fit Lolla, and then the end of their tour shows as September 21. So they have the time to be here in October. And the popularity as well. That would be a pretty great one, so let's just embrace the unknown and go with Maybe.
Bruce Springsteen. Nope. Which blows, but I'll just keep on hoping for future years.
Billy Joel. He's playing smack dab in the middle of weekend two, in Arlington. Which meant my first instinct was an automatic no, but if you really think about it, then he could easily be the big Sunday night closer, or the nostalgic Friday night opener, and then just bop on up to Dallas to play his other show. Huh. In my opinion, he's not nearly the draw that Elton or Fleetwood or most of these old bands are, but at the same time, singing "Piano Man" and "Captain Jack" at the top of my lungs with 70,000 other people would be pretty sweet. Huh, again. I guess I'll go with Maybe for now.
Ozzy Ozbourne. He's on the "No More Tours 2" tour, trying to further milk nostalgia for his brand, and purportedly hanging it up after this one. He just cancelled a bunch of tour dates to deal with sickness, so Australia, New Zealand, and Japan are without his old man rocking for now. I also have to note that he is playing something called Rocklahoma in May, which means that this "final" tour is the kind of sad, dying rattle usually reserved for casinos and state fairs. His tour ends at the end of July, so theoretically he could show up at both Lolla and ACL. I may be biased, because I think he kind of sucks, but I'm just going to go with a no for this one, even though he has the time and space to do it.
Bob Seger. Another dude purportedly on his final tour ever (we'll see), but he will be in Austin at the Erwin Center on March 7. Last year, I did a study on the timing for bands to come to Austin prior to ACL and still make the lineup, and while I generally discovered that there is no hard and fast rule, I think that March is early enough to not make an artist banned from October, as it has happened a lot to have someone come through for SXSW and then still end up here for ACL. But would people even care about big Bob coming to town? Not so sure. He has a bunch of classic rock hits, but I don't feel like many of them have captured the all-ages zeitgeist like others of these old classics have. Also, his final shows of this tour are in June, with three nights in a row in his hometown of Detroit, so I suspect that is going to be his big finale. It would seem weird for him to go do that big trio of hometown shows and then later play ACL too. No.
Queen + Adam Lambert. With the huge popularity of Queen right now, after the biopic and awards season lavishing the movie with praise, this feels like a great idea. Well, assuming that Lambert is actually good with the rest of the band, which I don't know about, but either way this would seem exciting to all ages. Their tour cranks right through the Lolla dates, so they're not going to go there. But it ends well before ACL's dates, so they have the room to show up in Austin. They play Houston and Dallas on this tour, but nothing in Austin or San Antonio. Some fake ass Queen band will be playing Austin in June, but not the real thing. Makes total sense for them to come and be the power nostalgia act that everyone would enjoy. I'll include them as a Maybe as well.
The Who. Their tour takes them to Dallas and Denver just before weekend one, and then they play L.A. on Friday and Sunday of weekend two. I think that makes this one unlikely, so I'll say no.
Bob Dylan. Appears to be on his neverending tour for all time, but this year looks to be all Europe all the time. I guess I'll go with a no.
The Eagles. The tour is out of the States by now, in Europe and Australia, and ends in July. So again, they could have the time to do it, but would they? I still hold that The Big Lebowski killed their ability to grab the Gen X and Millennial generations. So even though this one looks technically possible, I'm going to go with no.
I left off some hard rock stuff like Slayer and Judas Priest, but these days who the hell really knows what the genre of ACL is anymore. With Metallica and Camilla Cabello sharing a bill last year with Travis Scott and Paul McCartney, pretty much anything is in play. Who knows?
And I know I'm super copping out with the maybe answers, but we are so early in the year that nothing is published for a lot of these tours past the summer. Once we get a few months closer, we'll see if any new news would help discern who its gonna be. In order of likelihood for them actually being on the poster, here are the five that pass on from this post:
- Fleetwood Mac
- Queen
- Dead
- Kiss
- Billy Joel
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