Predicting ACL 2022: Recent Radio Uptick

I'm running out of time here.  It feels like the world has just sped up to 2.5 times normal speed since about the start of March - people have stopped caring about the pandemic and so everything has just barreled forward at warp speed.  Between work and kids and concerts and church and social stuff and other responsibilities, I'm getting crushed.  All of that is a short explanation for why my prediction posts have been few and far between.

BUT - one of my prediction measurements keeps hitting me square in the eyes when I listen to KUTX as I drive around town, and that is because they have been playing a TON of deep cuts from Beck.  Maybe it is all just happenstance, and it probably is, but it feels like I've heard random tracks every day from one of my favorite artists, and so that brought to mind my theory that the ACL people hand off an early teaser of the lineup to local radio stations.  The radio stations then start playing those bands/artists early, so that the ACL people remind the masses about good songs from the bands they are about to announce, which hypes the fans, makes it seem like the ACL people are booking a "favorite," and the radio stations get to be like "oh, we've been playing that band forever, we know music, yo!"

A few years back, it popped into my head because I had noticed that the few radio stations I listen to had been playing the hell out of The National.  Go check this post if you want to see my thoughts on it then.  To measure this (in an admittedly inexact way, I've checked out the KUTX playlist archive.  As my initial example, I can see that they have been playing Beck at least once a day, and frequently twice a day, since April 3.  Before that, you'd have a day or two skipped without a Beck song.  BUT, honestly, when I look way back at Beck's playing on KUTX, it looks like he pretty much always gets played almost every day on the station.  I guess he's a core artist and I'm just seeing shadows.  Like, November 13 they played two Beck songs.  Same on September 23.  Hmmm.

I'll go ahead and run this exercise anyway.  I'll collect a few days worth of recent playlists (4/18, 4/15, and 4/14, skipped days because they play weird playlists on the weekends), and then compare those to their playlists from two months prior.  Let's see what we find out.

4/18: Arcade Fire 4x.  Hovvdy 3x. Jack White 4x.  Wet Leg 4x.  Spoon.  Toro Y Moi 3x.  Robert Plant and Allison Krauss.  Charley Crockett 3x.  Florence and the Machine.  Snail Mail.

4/15: Charlie Crockett.  The Marias.  Wet Leg.  Hurray for the Riff Raff. Pixies.  Mitski.  Spoon.  Arcade Fire.  Toro Y Moi.  Beach House.  Hovvdy.  Beach House.  Sharon Van Etten.  Black Keys.  Jack White.  Florence.  Kurt Vile.   

4/14: Riff Raff.  Destroyer.  Jack White.  Spoon.  Little Simz.  Toro Y Moi.  Arcade Fire.  Father John Misty. Wet Leg.  Florence.  Black Keys.  Soccer Mommy.  Hovvdy.  Kurt Vile.  Charley Crockett.  Big KRIT.  Plant/Krauss.  Big Thief.  Fantastic Negrito.  Van Etten.  Pixies.  Japanese Breakfast.  Beach House.  Orville Peck.  Silk Sonic.

These are the artists who are getting a ton of play right now.  What did they look like two months ago?

2/14: Silk Sonic x2.  Pixies x3.  Toro Y Moi x2.  Japanese Breakfast x4.  Plant/Krauss.  Wet Leg x3.  Hovvdy x2.  Spoon x4.  Big Thief x2.  Sharon Van Etten.  Little Simz.  Father John Misty.  Jack White (plus his bands) x3.

2/15: Wet Leg x5.  Jack White et al x2.  Riff Raff x2.  Japanese x2.  Sharon Van Etten x3.  Beach House. Spoon x8. Silk Sonic x2. Toro Y Moi x3.  Plant/Krauss.  Big Thief x2.  Kurt Vile.  KRIT.  Charley Crockett.  Little Simz.

2/17: Riff Raff x8.  Destroyer x2.  Beach House x2.  Spoon x5.  Kurt Vile x2.  Big Thief x2.  Sharon Van Etten x4.  Toro Y Moi x4.  Plant/Krauss.  Japanese Breakfast x2.  Father John Misty x2.  Wet Leg.  Jack White et al.  Silk Sonic.  KRIT.  Chief Cleopatra is listed a lot in all of these.

I mean, honestly, that data set sucks.  Many artists are being played a lot right now, but they were also being played a ton two months ago.  The only ones that really seem to have picked up are The Pixies, Charley Crockett, Arcade Fire, and Florence and the Machine.  Man, Spoon gets played a lot on KUTX!

Might mean nothing, but let's just go ahead and dig into some of these artists for the entertainment value.

• Beck.  He's heading over to Europe in early June and then comes back to the U.S. for one show near San Francisco at the end of July.  No new music right now, and his last album was 2019.  Meh, nothing in those data points makes this feel like its legit.  Maybe I just have confirmation bias and want to see him play again...
• Hovvdy. They're bopping around the country right now, and the last show on their tour is at Antone's right here in Austin on June 18.  Show is sold out, though, so there is some appetite for them.  I thought they were a local band, but Spotify says they are from NYC.  I guess my guess is no, not with a June show.
• Jack White.  But, then, what about a May show?  The White One is playing the new Moody Center on May 25.  He's playing the Ohana Fest the weekend before ACL weekend one, and then has nothing else on the tour.  He's also just released one album and about to release a second one.  So it would make sense to support the new music with a Fest spot, but it feels like he's also be on the Lolla lineup for that to be true.  So I'm gonna go with no.
• Wet Leg.  Gross band name.  I really like the new album, but every time I think of their band name I think of pee and moist jeans and wet socks and nothing is good about any of those things.  They're cruising around Europe right now, and then will be in Australia, before coming back to do Lollapalooza.  They come through San Antonio and Dallas in late August but skip Austin.  Right around the ACL dates, they're playing in Mexico, and although the have a California show on the Sunday night of weekend One, I'm feeling like this is a lock.  Yes.  They're hot stuff and were the darlings of SXSW this year, and pretty much if anyone is playing Mexico during and around the ACL dates, I think they are on the poster.
• Spoon.  Their tour ends in Portland just before ACL, so it seems to leave them room for a homecoming set at the Fest.  I love the new album, so I'd be in for another show from them.  Not much to go on there, but I'll just believe in positivity and say Yes.
• Toro Y Moi.  I had never given this dude a chance, but you know what?  He's kinda rad.  Sounds a little like Beck!  Like, "Deja Vu" could easily be an old Beck track.  Cool.  Although, then "Girl Like You" sounds like some autotuned trash, so I need to slow my roll.  BTW, his website is awesomely lame and lo-fi.  Love it.  But, he's playing shows in Europe through both weekends of ACL, so that ends up being a hard No.
• Robert Plant and Allison Krauss.  Nah.  I think it would match up well with the ACL brand, but they are playing a show at the new Moody Amphitheater on September 4, which means they will almost certainly not be back in Austin a month later.
• Charley Crockett.  He's playing Austin for Willie's July 4th thing at the soccer stadium, but then he has a big gap between September 16 and October 28, so he could bop by ACL and do another set.  The only problem is that he was just here last year.  I think with a July set and recent presence, I'm going with no.
• Florence and the Machine.  I gotta say, they were one of my favorite headliners for ACL.  A few years back I went for the one night they came to the second weekend, all alone, and it was a fabulous show.  They're doing new music, and on tour, so that is positive.  But, NOPE, as they are playing the new Moody Center on September 27.  Damn.  Was hoping they'd be a fun return to see.
• Arcade Fire.  Not sure what is up with them.  I know the new album is coming out soon, but Will Butler claimed to have quit the band after it was completed.  Their website lists a show in London this weekend, but nothing else.  So it sure doesn't seem like they're out there touring it up?  I'd love to see them again, and have been liking the new songs.  But nothing here points to them coming.
• Snail Mail.  She plays the Moody Theater on May 2, so that would seem to show that she won't be back for the Fest.  But her tour ends on Sept. 24, just right before the Fest.  I've still never seen her, which I would really enjoy, but I can't see any good reason to predict it right now.
• Hurray for the Riff Raff.  Playing Austin on May 21, and then the tour ends right before ACL.  Why do so many tours do that?  Like Snail Mail, I see no reason why she'd be here again.
• Destroyer.  Playing the Mohawk on May 17, and is playing in Europe during ACL, so nope.
• Little Simz.  The entire month of October is open on her calendar, in between a spot at the Firefly Festival in September and then shows in Europe in November.  No Texas shows otherwise on her tour.  Feels pretty good.  I'll go with yes.
• Father John Misty.  Nah, plays Moody Amphitheater on August 12.
• Black Keys.  Nah, plays Moody Center on October 17.
• Soccer Mommy.  Tour ends right before October, so she's got the time.  I've been surprised that she has never been on the bill for ACL.  In fact, it seems really weird that most of her peers have also not been on the poster (or if they have I'm old and forgetful).  We need Soccer Mommy, Mitski, Japanese Breakfast, Snail Mail, Courtney Barnett, etc. immediately.
• Japanese Breakfast.  Feels like probably not.  She plays Portland, Oregon the Friday of Weekend One, and then is in Europe by the weekend after Weekend Two.  Not feeling that.  I do think she is playing an ACL taping somewhere in there though, even though that isn't on her tour schedule.
• Kurt Vile. Plays Moody Theater on May 22.  Tour ends in September in Paris.  Doesn't feel like he's hurry back for another Austin show.
• Big K.R.I.T.  Playing Emo's on May 26.  Tour ends in June.  I see now reason to expect it.
• Beach House.  Tour ends in September.  Kind of insane how many festivals exist now.  They're playing festivals in Omaha, Nebraska and Bentonville, Arkansas.  What in the world?  NO reason to expect they'll be here other than their tour ending, so I'll say no.
• Silk Sonic.  This would be RAD.  They're doing a residency in Vegas from March 23 to May 29, but no other tour dates are on their calendar.  I guess I'll go with no.
• Fantastico Negrito.  He plays some festival in Memphis the weekend before, called the Mempho Music Festival.  Weird.  Even with a clear calendar, I have no reason to expect he'd be here.  Could happen, but I don't have any good intel.
• The Pixies.  Huh.  Their whole tour is in Europe until September 4, and then they take a two month break before they start back up in Japan.  So they definitely have the time to play the Fest.  Screw it, I know I've been lukewarm on most of the others who just have random gaps in their tour, but I'm going to say this is our old people show for the year.  Yes.
• Sharon Van Etten.  I've always had a weird sense of guilt for not liking Van Etten.  I don't know why.  I don't like a lot of artists, but for some reason I feel bad about it with her.  Strange.  Plays the Moody Amp on July 25, so that would be a nope.
• Chief Cleopatra.  Never even heard of this, not sure why I'm digging into their touring schedule right now.  I'm guessing she is from Austin?  Her only show is at something called Haute Spot in Cedar Park, this weekend.  Errr.  No?
• Big Thief.  Another band with a huge gap in their tour - this one goes from July 4 to November 21.  So they could definitely do it, and their new album is good and interesting.  Ehh, sure, I'll just throw a dart at this one.
• The Marias.  Another band I am constantly rude about.  Sorry.  I'm just a damaged man.  Weird thing, they play Lolla, and then have an opening for Weekend One, but then they are scheduled to play Stubb's for a rescheduled show (because of the ice storm this Feb.) on October 14 - Friday of Weekend Two.  I guess that could just be one of the ACL Late Night shows, and they'll be here.  Sure, let's go with it.

OK, so what did I learn from all of this?  That I have too much spare time?  Assuredly so.  You should see the page of notes I made from looking at this stuff last night after the kids went to bed.  Looks like some creepy, stalker Beautiful Mind shit.  I think this supports Wet Leg and The Marias for sure, and then a lighter support for The Pixies, Spoon, and Big Thief.

As an unnecessary aside, I also think that this post goes much better when it is following up behind posts about all of my other theories.  I need more support to come up with this one, and not knowing who is playing the foreign Lollas, or what is hip on TikTok, or who is releasing new music this year, it just makes this harder to crack.  Oh well.  Next year I'll be the best version of me!  Promise!

Quick Hits, Vol. 303 (Amyl and the Sniffers, 2 Chainz, ABBA, alt-J)

I hate the desire in me to be annoying about things like this, but the new Soccer Mommy single is annoying (it's actually really good, but there is one minute detail that keeps bugging me - she sings that she is a "bullet in a shotgun waiting to sound."  Well, bullets don't go in shotguns.  A bullet is the little projectile that is at the tip of a cartridge, that gets launched out of the gun.  A shotgun shoots a shell that is full of either shot or a slug.  So she could never be a bullet in a shotgun waiting to sound.  I KNOW THAT IS ANNOYING FOR ME TO BE BOTHERED BY THIS.  I can't help it.  I was born this way.

Amyl and the Sniffers - Comfort to Me.  Their last album was an absolute banger.  Just an unhinged blast of ridiculously overcharged angry bashing.  "Some Mutts" is a classic.  This one has some of that same flavor, but nothing in here is so perfectly pitched as those tracks on the first one.  Although I really like "Security" and her yelling at the pub's security about how she's NOT THAT DRUNK!  Makes me grin.  I love the guitars and the pounding drums, and her kick ass Aussie accent adds a perfect flavor for these tunes.  The top track is "Hertz" with 2.9 million streams.

I very much appreciate the way the singer just looks like someone who would scream about not being that drunk or yelling at me to climb into the backseat because that is where she'll be waiting.  The lyrics literally could be a country song - "take me to the beach, take me to the country, come in the backseat, if you love me."  I can hear Maren Morris singing that in a nice country lilt right now.  But there ain't nothing nice or lilted about that tune right there, just an angry fuzzy blast of deranged love.  "No More Tears" kinda sounds like classic REM when it starts.  "Laughing" cracks me up because of the weird slang she is using, saying that she is dressed "daggy."  The google says that "daggy" means unkempt or scruffy.  Enjoyable album anyway, but not nearly as essential as the last one.

2 Chainz - Dope Don't Sell Itself.  Right at the start of "Pop Music," there is a woman sampled (or maybe just speaking) who asks "why you face so ugly?" and it makes me giggle.  This disc is generally a throwaway, but its also pretty damn fun.  Just a lot of sexual brags and drug stories and goofy stuff packed over the top of mostly generic beats.  Like "Neighbors Know My Name," which has him rapping that his neighbors call him "oh fuck, oh shit" over a bouncy little bop.  It's goofy, and only 1:44 long, but it makes me grin anyway.  Most of the songs are short - he gets 12 songs in under 33 minutes.  And he has a ton of guests - Lil Baby, Roddy Ricch, YoungBoy Never Broke Again (truly a terrible rapper name), and a bunch of lesser knowns - and I think that is when 2 Chainz shines, where he isn't the focus of the track but he gets to swerve in and throw out a punchline or two.  Top song, by a lot, is "Million Dollars Worth of Game" with something called 42 Dugg.  17.4 million streams.

 

That beat jams though.  Never heard of 42 Dugg, but his little raspy voice works on there.  I just read his Wikipedia, and the dude spent 6 years in prison for carjacking and then fighting while in prison.  I am officially frightened of 42 Dugg now.

ABBA - Voyage.  I hate being a dick about a classic band like this, but this album blows.  Their exciting comeback album, and its just super boring stuff to me.  I wouldn't say I love their hits anyway, so I'm not sure what I expected.  Of course, they have some tunes with a bunch of streams from this though, because they're still a beloved band.  "Don't Shut Me Down" is the top one, with 47.6 million streams.

I'll readily admit that their voices still sound really good.  But I don't ever need to hear this album again.

alt-J - The Dream.  This is a really weird album.  I suppose the band has always been odd, but this one has a depressing and offputting vibe to it that I can't get my finger on.  And then "Hard Drive Gold" is goofy as hell, right there amidst the darkly spare other songs.  "U&ME" has a slinkiness to it that is interesting and kind of grooves.  But "Happier When You're Gone" is, as the title suggests, depressing.  And "The Actor" finds him singing about returning to cocaine over a darkly cheery beat.  You know how Radiohead make songs that sound both cheerful and depressing?  That.  The start of "Chicago" sounds like it should be in the new RoboCop, until he starts whisper singing over that, and before the choir starts chanting.  "Losing My Mind" sounds very much like a lost Arcade Fire song from the The Suburbs sessions.  "U&ME" is the top track for now, with 18.2 million streams.

Dig the retro action in that video, but then it gets really really weird.  And also dig the groove.  While I like that tune, and some of these are definitely interesting, I overall am not in love with the whole disc.  I'll let it go.

Predicting ACL 2022: Lollapalooza Lineup

Yeah baby!  I always think of Lollapalooza as the sister show to ACL.  They get some things that we just saw.  We get some things that they just saw.  We're linked and its fun.  I was very grateful though, that the link between them has been fraying more over the past few years, as their lineup seems to be consistently leaning more towards the pop stuff that I don't want to see.  

I always fear that Festival life is about to pass me by and leave me the bitter old dude still listening to the few rock shows on tiny stages instead of trying new things.  So far, I'm still pretty varied in my musical love, but I am definitely not the target audience of the 2022 Coachella lineup, and the majority of the 2022 Lollapalooza lineup leaves me unimpressed.
But still, I love this post.  I love the guessing game and murder mystery sleuthing that comes with trying to figure things out. This is a fun game for me.  AND remember that last year had Post Malone as the second top artist for Lolla (which was depressing), and we avoided him in Austin!  Hooray!

As usual, in my opinion, the Lolla lineup is always the closest indicator of who is coming to ACL in any given year.  Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups.  In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows.  But in some recent years, it isn't that close.

Here is some old history - if you don't care about all of this, then just scan on down past the little charts.  The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:

2012: Red Hot Chili Peppers yes Black Keys yes Black Sabbath no Jack White yes Florence & the Machine yes At the Drive In no Bassnectar yes Avicii yes The Shins yes 2014: Eminem yes Outkast yes Kings of Leon no Arctic Monkeys no Skrillex yes Calvin Harris yes Lorde yes The Avett Brothers yes Foster the People yes

Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith (which almost got fully made up to us last year!)

Paul McCartney	no
Metallica	no
Florence & the Machine	yes
Sam Smith	no
Bassnectar	yes
The Weeknd	yes
Alt-J	yes
Alabama Shakes	yes
Of Monsters and Men	yes

Then 2011, 2013, and last year (2018) show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:

2011:

Eminem	no
Foo Fighters	no
Coldplay	yes
Muse	no
My Morning Jacket	yes
Deadmau5	no
A Perfect Circle	no
Cee Lo Green	yes
Damian Marley & Nas	yes

2013:

The Cure	yes
Mumford & Sons	no
the Killers	no
Nine Inch Nails	no
Phoenix	yes
the Postal Service	no
Vampire Weekend	yes
New Order	no
Queens of the Stone Age	yes

2018:

The Weeknd	no
Bruno Mars	no
Jack White	no
Arctic Monkeys	yes
Travis Scott	yes
The National	yes
Vampire Weekend	no
Odesza	yes
Logic	no

2016 was a little stronger than those two years, but it is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, because Lolla went to four nights in 2019 in order to celebrate an anniversary. But you still get a 5 of 9 matchup (if you ask me), which is still a close link but not that strong:

Radiohead	yes
Mumford & Sons	no
Kendrick Lamar	no
LCD Soundsystem	yes
Major Lazer	yes
Kygo	no
Chris Stapleton	yes
The Chainsmokers	no
Flume	yes

2017 had the weakest link ever, with only 3 of the top 9 shared between the two festivals.

Chance the Rapper	yes
The Killers	yes
Muse	no
Arcade Fire	no
The XX	yes
Lorde	no
Blink 182	no
DJ Snake	no
Justice	no

Some of the differences come because the two festivals apparently value people differently.  For example, in 2018, Khalid was the #7 artist on the ACL poster, but only #11 on the Lolla poster.  Camilla Cabello was #9 on the ACL poster but was all the way down at #24 on the Lolla poster (which is honestly weird).  Chvches was #13 on ACL, but #15 for Lolla.  Why are all of our bands worse in the eyes of Lolla?  So you can't solely judge off of the top two lines of the poster, even if those are usually the most exciting things to see.

I didn't even do this post last year - I wasn't sure if ACL was even going to happen!  Stupid COVID.  But looking at the top artists from the two 2021 posters, it looks like we originally shared 3 of 9 (Miley Cyrus, DaBaby, and Megan thee Stallion), and then continued to share three once DaBaby was replaced with Tyler, the Creator.  Pretty weak connection!

So, how likely are we to see the top nine on the Lolla poster for this year?  Let's dig in.  

1. Metallica.  Nope.  I just don't believe that they'd be back to ACL just three years after their 2019 set here.  I freaking loved seeing them play live again, but I just don't see any reason for them to already be back.
2. Dua Lipa.  I had a weird moment there where I kind of thought that she had been at the Fest last year - I think I get Dua Lipa and Doja Cat confused.  I'm sure the fans of those two artists just rolled their eyes at me.  Whatever.  I'm old.  I could see her coming to Austin, sure.  Now that we have pop stuff at the Fest, she'd make sense.  Disco pop party for all.  Her current tour kicked off in February, and came through Houston and Dallas in mid-March.  As of April she heads overseas, but then she has a gap from September 23 (Mexico) to November 2 (New Zealand).  That pretty perfectly lines up for us, so I'm going to go with a YES for this one.
3. J. Cole.  I actually liked some of the stuff on his most recent album, so maybe I'll come around on the guy just in time to see him play a show.  Who knows.  Still not sure I'd peg him as a top three artist at one of the biggest fests in the world, but maybe I just don't know anything.  His current "tour" is just six shows - but they are Governor's Ball, Bonnaroo, Rolling Loud, and Lolla.  Sure feels like he might be just making the rounds to some big name Fests this year.  I'm just remembering how I used to literally spreadsheet every artists that came to ACL to keep track of who had been here and when and it took me freaking a million hours to do.  What a nerd!  I can see this one happening.  Not too surprising or exciting, just kind of could happen...
4. Green Day.  Hell yeah.  I hope so!  I've never gotten to see them play live.  Now, I would much prefer that the one time I could see them play live would have been when they were young and vibrant and important, not now when their last album is a complete after-thought.  But you take what you can get!  I think their tour already came through Austin, with like Fall Out Boy and Weezer?  The next long chunk of the tour will be in Europe after they play Shaky Knees.  Then they come back to the States to play Lolla, Sean.Hear.Now, and Firefly.  Now this is interesting - after the September 24 Firefly, they have an open calendar for about a month, but at the end of that month they play Austin for the F1 US Grand Prix race.  Normally, I'd say hell no, they aren't going to have an immediate repeat show in Austin right after the two weekends of ACL.  But I thought they made the perfect headliner for the Fest!  Damn.  I guess I'm going to say no, just because of the proximity issue there, but I'm bummed about that decision.
5. Doja Cat.  Nah, she was just here in 2021.
6. Machine Gun Kelly.  Same!  Also, his show was super shitty!  Nope.
7. Lil Baby.  Whelp, I literally just googled - Did Lil Baby get cancelled - I'm super on top of things.  It was Da Baby who got cancelled, not Lil.  Sorry, I'll try to keep my Babies straight.  This fella isn't really on tour either, he's just doing a handful of festivals (including the Dreamville one with J. Cole...).  The end of his shows is in August, so he certainly has the time to come and baby it up in October.  Feels like it could be.  If so, those are some weak top rap shows for the Fest.
8. Kygo.  Had to go look up last year's ACL lineup because I couldn't remember Rufus Du Sol's name.  But wasn't he just here?  Nope, apparently Kygo just played ACL in 2016, so six freaking years ago.  Again, I'm very on top of it.  Kygo did just play SXSW at the free stage in Waterloo Park.  I bet it was lit.  His current calendar shows that his last show is the Life is Beautiful fest on September 16 (but it also fails to list his Lolla show...).  Yeah, sure, I guess he could be here.  We need our usual electronic thing to come and confuse us old farts.
9. Glass Animals.  I'm sure I should remember who this is, but if they are who I think they are - the people who sing that horrific "Gooey" song - then I am going to be very sad to have them here.  Their tour takes them through San Antonio in June, but no Austin show.  THEY PLAY RED ROCKS TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW?!?!?!  The tour ends in August, so they could show up.  They were last here in 2017, so that is a sufficient gap between the last time they showed up.  Mehhhhh, yeah, okay.

So, if my predictions are right, we'll have 5 of 9 of the headliners here in Austin.  That is a semi-close connection this year.  Could it be right?  I feel very strongly about Dua Lipa.  The rest are soft to flaccid.

I'm super behind this year!  I can't even blame work, I've just been slacking off on the prediction game.  I probably have two or so other prediction posts to make, and then I'll need to finish up.  We'll have the announcement in about a month!