Another Angle at Predicting ACL 2016: Lollapalooza Lineup

We are getting near the end of the prediction season and then will get started with the best part of the year - discovery season.  Here's to hoping that there are more Spanish Gold and Royal Blood type golden nuggets in the small type of this year's lineup.

One simple comparison in previous years has been to look at the Lollapalooza lineup for the year. Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups.  In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows.

The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:

2012: Red Hot Chili Peppers yes Black Keys yes Black Sabbath no Jack White yes Florence & the Machine yes At the Drive In no Bassnectar yes Avicii yes The Shins yes 2014: Eminem yes Outkast yes Kings of Leon no Arctic Monkeys no Skrillex yes Calvin Harris yes Lorde yes The Avett Brothers yes Foster the People yes

Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith.

Paul McCartney	no
Metallica	no
Florence & the Machine	yes
Sam Smith	no
Bassnectar	yes
The Weeknd	yes
Alt-J	yes
Alabama Shakes	yes
Of Monsters and Men	yes

Then 2011 and 2013 show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:

2011:

Eminem	no
Foo Fighters	no
Coldplay	yes
Muse	no
My Morning Jacket	yes
Deadmau5	no
A Perfect Circle	no
Cee Lo Green	yes
Damian Marley & Nas	yes

2013:

The Cure	yes
Mumford & Sons	no
the Killers	no
Nine Inch Nails	no
Phoenix	yes
the Postal Service	no
Vampire Weekend	yes
New Order	no
Queens of the Stone Age	yes

So, what do we know because of all of that?  At a minimum, you can assume that at least 4 of the top nine artists on the Lolla poster will be in Austin in the fall.  And we have some precedence for an even closer relationship.  So, how likely are we to see the top nine on the Lolla poster for this year?

Radiohead:  Putting out a new album soon.  Currently on tour, with no conflicts for the ACL dates and two sold out shows in Mexico during the week between the two weekends of ACL.  Playing some other festivals (Lolla, Outside Lands, German Lolla, European, Japanese, and Canadian ones). Haven't been to ACL in years, but they are a no doubt exciting headliner.  I feel like this one is a lock.

Red Hot Chili Peppers:  Playing so many festivals, per their touring schedule.  Their tour ends in August, so there is nothing in the schedule that tends to show that they will be in central Texas in early October.  Last came to ACL in 2012, and they also are a no doubt headliner.  They have a new album in the mixing stage right now (and hey, guess when their last one came out?  August 26, 2011, after Lolla had already happened that year, after the ACL lineup had been set, but just in time for them to play Lolla and ACL in 2012).  I'm feeling pretty strong about this one coming to Austin as well.

LCD Soundsystem:  They are playing every single festival in the entire world this year, including Jimmy Grimaldi's bar mitzvah.  Strangely, the schedule on his website doesn't include Lolla, but LCD is definitely on the poster.  The last of the scheduled shows is on September 2, so he's got the time to be in Austin in late September and early October.  Hard to imagine that he would play the other big three, plus many many others, without showing up here.  I believe.

J. Cole:  Playing both Lolla and Bonnaroo, but it looks like his tour is mostly done.  No dates after July's Lolla show.   He "played" Austin in March for a Democratic National Committee fundraiser with President Obama during SXSW, but I don't count that as a real show.  And he was here at the Austin 360 in August 2015.  His last album was released December 9, 2014, so he doesn't have new music to pimp (unless you count a live version of that last album that just came out).  However, there are rumors that he might be about to release a collaboration album with Kendrick Lamar, which would be pretty big news, and since I think Kendrick makes sense as a headliner for ACL, maybe they come do a joint show together? I'd tend to say that he isn't a big enough artists to get a headliner slot without brand new music out there, but I guess he got the Lolla headliner spot, so maybe he is bigger than I think.  My gut is telling me no.

Lana Del Rey:  After her Lolla headlining date, she'll also play Outside Lands and a few other smaller fests, but all dates on her calendar are done by September 4.  Her most recent album, surprisingly not terrible, came out in September 2015, so I she still has new music to tour behind. She was just here in 2014, which seems a little recent for an artists who shouldn't be a headliner in the first place.  <siiiighhh>  I guess she could be coming back to ACL.  Gut is telling me yes.

Future:  <super long, intentionally audible sigh>  This feels inevitable.  Although, I'm not sure why, since he is playing Austin with Drake in tow in July.  Normally, I would not expect an artist to have a big concert in town just a few months before the Festival dates, so he might not be coming back.  But my gut wants me to say yes.  His tour ends September 18 in Canada, so he's got the time to come back and mumble some AutoTune platitudes at us. Because of the July concert, I'm going to say no, even if my gut is saying yes.

Ellie Goulding:  Yes.  She is playing all of the other big three.  Although, as part of her massive tour supporting her album from last year, she had a stop in "Austin" at the Cedar Park center this April, so maybe that militates against her coming right back?   Because she is playing all the other fests and has a new (11/6/15) album out, I'm thinking yes.

Major Lazer.  Well, they were here in 2014, and that was right after they had played Coach and Lolla the year before, while this year they are playing both C and L.  So that makes some sense that they would follow those two fests with another appearance at ours.  They are playing a bunch of festivals (smaller ones all summer long), including Lolla Germany, and then they are done as of September 11 on their current calendar.  I think there is a good chance that they will come back to ACL.  And I still won't care.

Disclosure.  Nope.  I'd love to see them and am kind of bummed I missed them last year, but I don't see any reason they would come back for a second year in a row.  They have time on their calendar, but I'm still going with no.

Another Angle at Predicting ACL 2016: Critical Darlings

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

The best article and spreadsheet I ever read about critical reviews of music is the Rock Critic Hivemind article that came out in 2014.  Here is the spreadsheet.  I've talked about this article a lot. If I had all the time in the world, I'd love to make something similar every year, but I just have to hope that guy does it again someday.  And guess what?  After spending like an hour inspecting Rob Mitchum's Twitter feed, I found that he did, indeed do it again.  I love him.  Although he loves Phish more than I find healthy.  Here is the 2015 list.

So, I think this shows a real, solid gathering of the critical darlings for a year, so I think it makes sense as a gauge.  There might be one critics list that would better match up to ACL, but which one?  The Chronicle?  Pitchfork?  I dunno, that is an even deeper dive that should be reserved for another time.  

I'll look at 2014 and 2015, and in each one I'll check the year of that great album and the year after.  And I'm sticking to just the top 30 in each year, just because I have to limit this and not entirely lose my eyesight or fire up carpal tunnel.  Here is what I found:

With regard to the 2014 Top 30 Albums:

• Some top artists in the year end rankings got no big festival sets.  Sharon Van Etten, Aphex Twin, and Sun Kill Moon were all among the top ten of the critical darling list, but none played the big 4 festivals in 2014/2015.  Eight of the top 30 total artists had no show at any of the big 4 in either 2014 or 2015.
• In 2014, 10 of the top 30 2014 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.  So only 1/3, which isn't a real strong correlation.
• 5 of those 10 were booked for ACL, though, which is strong. (St. Vincent, Mac DeMarco, Spoon, Lana Del Rey, and Real Estate). ACL had the closest connection, as Lolla, Coach, and Roo each only had 3.  
• The next year, in 2015, 18 of the top 30 2014 artists scored a big Four Festival slot - a much stronger connection.  So maybe the critical love has to percolate a year before the artists can get booked to play a Fest.
• However, only two of those came to ACL (Sturgill and Run the Jewels), which is kind of crazy. The runaway winner for the Festival booking last year's top album artists was Cochella, with 14 of the 18 playing Coachella.  That looks like a strong connection. Lolla had five and Roo had ten.

With regard to the 2015 Top 30 Albums:

• More of the top ten got shows, as only two (9th place Sleater-Kinney and 10th place Bjork) didn't have any festival dates in 2015 or 2016 (assuming that ACL doesn't book them).  Ten total artists in the 2015 top 30 were blanked for big four festival dates in 2015/2016.
• In 2015, again, 10 of the top 30 2015 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.
• However, this time, 7 of those 10 were booked to ACL (Tame Impala, Father John Misty, Vince Staples, Kurt Vile, Drake, Alabama Shakes, Chance the Rapper (Donnie Trumpet album)).  So even better than the year before.  Coach had 5, Roo had 4, and Lolla had 3.  So maybe ACL is the festival with the better chance to book artists with excellent albums of the year because, as just about the last 'fest of the year, they get more time to figure out what's good and plug it in.  Or maybe the booking people are just better.
• In 2016, 15 of the top 30 2015 artists are currently on tap for a big four festival show. Slightly down from the year before, but still 50% is pretty strong.
• We don't know how many of those will make ACL's lineup, but how about we use this to make some guesses?

We likely won't see repeats of the seven who were here in 2015, so we'd be looking at the following potential matches (leaving out doubtful stuff - Carlie Rae Jepsen - and things I've never heard of - Oneohtrix):

• Kendrick Lamar.  Lamar doesn't have a current tour, he is playing London on 7/2 and New Orleans on 7/3.  So he's available.  And I think he'd make sense for a headliner slot as the rap artist for the year.  Last year's album was huge, he hasn't played ACL in a few years, and his Grammy performance was a huge hit.  Makes sense.
• Sufjan Stevens.  The kind of artist who would come to ACL.  No real tour, but his website shows several other festival dates, including Sasquatch, Pitchfork, Panorama, and Outside Lands.  And he just played Coachella.  Nothing on the schedule after August 7, so he's got the time.  And he hasn't been to ACL in the past five years.  So, another that makes sense.
• Courtney Barnett.  Please?  Pretty please?  I was surprised that she didn't show up on the schedule last year after her album got a ton of love and she had a great showing at SXSW.  She's playing the Levitation Festival in Austin this weekend, which unfortunately weighs against her coming back to Austin again, but her schedule ends in mid July.  So maybe she'll go home, eat some ramen and recharge, and then come jam for me.  Sadly, I'll say I doubt it.
• Jamie xx.  Played Roo and Coach last year, and is scheduled to play a bunch of minor festivals this year (Sasquatch, Governors, Free Press, and a bunch in Europe). Schedule peters out in mid-August, so he's got the time.  Sounds right, although I don't much care for the tunes.
• Grimes.  Playing Coachella and Lolla this year, and everyone seemed to love her album from last year.  Feels almost certain to me.  However, she is playing the Austin 360 amphitheatre in May, so maybe she wouldn't come right back?  Her schedule is empty after the FYF Festival in late August, so she has time.  I'm thinking no.
• Sleater-Kinney.  Zero current tour dates, played a tour behind their most recent album last year.  Carrie Brownstein is probably back to Portlandia now.  Kind of doubt this one.
• Bjork.  She apparently cancelled her 2015 tour behind Vulnicura, and I find no tour dates on the web.  I'd love to finally get to see her (since I had to sell my ACL tickets the last time she came because my jerk brother got married that weekend), but I don't think it is going to happen.
• Joanna Newsom.  I only see one date on her current "tour," as most of the tour was done by April 3.  She didn't come to Texas, so maybe?  I don't know, she's not playing any other big fests, and I'm just not feeling it.
• Future.  <<Lurchgrumble>>  He's "headlining" Lollapalooza, so he's got a pretty good shot of showing up here as well.  Although, he's playing Austin with Drake in tow in July, so maybe that is close enough that he shouldn't come back again?  His tour ends September 18 in Canada, so he's got the time to come back and mumber some AutoTune platitudes at us.  I think no.
• Kamasi Washington.  Guy plays some future funk sax for Kendrick and gets to make the rounds to Roo and Coach, but he isn't playing Lolla, so maybe not.  And he has a show in San Diego on Friday, October 7, so if he can come, it wouldn't likely be for second weekend?  I guess I'm assuming that he travels by covered wagon and he couldn't get here by Saturday or Sunday of that weekend, but it just doesn't seem all that likely.
• Jason Isbell.  Jerk.  I figured he'd be here for sure, but his schedule shows that he is playing something called Roots n Blues n BBQ Festival in Missouri the same weekend as ACL weekend One.  So doesn't look like he'll be here.
• Deerhunter.  Last date on their calendar is August 20, so they have the time.  They played the Mohawk a few weeks ago, so I'm kind of doubting they'll be back.
• Blur.  Doubt it.  No dates on their touring calendar, and it seems like I've recently read that Albarn is doing more stuff with his other projects.  I wanted them to come last year, would have been a fun nostalgia show combined with good new tunes from the Magic Whip.
• Wilco.  They are currently touring in support of the new Star Wars album, and their schedule has a big gap between August 30 and October 27, so they have the time to come.  They used to be an ACL mainstay, so this makes some sense for the 15th Anniversary of ACL Fest.
• Beach House.  They just played the Moody Theatre on April 11, so maybe they wouldn't come right back.  That being said, they played Coachella, will play Pitchfork, and FYF, and their schedule is open after Augist 28.  So it could happen.  
• Miguel.  Playing Bonnaroo, Pitchfork, Outside Lands, and nothing on his schedule after August 7, so he has the time and the festival chops.  I have no clue.  Doesn't feel like a match for this festival, but neither do any of the other R&B or EDM types that end up here now.

We are getting close to the actual announcement in two more weeks.  I think I've got one or two other angles to consider about predictions, but I'm looking forward to the end of the suspense and just knowing the lineup!

Rhiannon Giddens: Moody Theatre: April 25, 2016

Ree-ann-un, pronounced like Shannon.  I loved that Giddens stepped to the stage, barefoot but still tall and imposing, and schooled the crowd on how to pronounce her first name.  And the timing was impeccable, as some jamoke in the audience had just yelled out something about "ree-ah-non" two beats before she spoke up.  Funny start to the show.

If you haven't gone out to listen to her music, then you are missing out.  And the live show was even better, as her voice is an absolute glittering, majestic, and awe-inspiring dragon: swooping and soaring and crushing and burning and then curling up in the warm fire of its hearth to rest while the band burns away.  Seriously, her voice is so damn strong.  Just made me chuckle a few times at how powerfully she could project over the top of the many people jamming out with her on stage.  And she had a bunch - electric guitar, fiddle/accordion, stand-up bass, her own banjo, other banjo, acoustic guitar, cello, and drums.  8 people gettin' after it for most of the songs.

My favorite track from her last album was the Dolly Parton-penned song "Don't Let It Trouble Your Mind," and she did a great version last night.  She also absolutely killed one song "Louisiana Man" - just turned it into a jam session breakdown of flying banjo picks, fiddle, and the rest of the band cranking it up all the way.  And Giddens absolutely stalked the stage, swishing her skirt and eyeballing her band, just deep in the groove.  That tune was awesome.

Another top moment for me was the cover of "She's Got You," mainly because she took that great song, made it her own, and then displayed a real range on the song, cranking up the meaty chorus, but also showing some tenderness and soft tone for the ending.  I thought it was cool to see that side of her range.

I also have to note how amazing some of her own songs were.  She told us that she has been reading a lot about slavery and then reacting to those readings through songwriting.  She played us two of those songs, one that was a discussion between a slave and the plantation owner's mistress, as the Union army approached the house, and one that called “At the Purchaser’s Option,” which she said was inspired by an ad she found from 1820-something for a slave, where the slave's baby could also be acquired at the purchaser's option. Dark shit, man.  But both of the songs were beautiful, even if they were a somber detour during the rest of the show.

One funny distraction from all of that seriousness was the dude who was about a row back from the front, standing in the crowd, who was dancing like he was at the Electronic Daisy Carnival and was dosed on a big fat load of LSD.  Just pumping/waving/weaving his hands and leaning his head back to the sky and incorrectly mouthing half of the words in his ecstasy.  It was kind of awesome.

Overall, a damn fun show and a good taping.

Another Angle at Predicting ACL 2016: Big Streaming

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

The long-winded discussion of big touring bands really didn't net too much good information I think will lead to a good prediction of this year's lineup.  My final thoughts ended up being to (1) look for big tours of bands with crossover appeal between rock/rap and pop; and (2) the vast majority of groups who have major tours do not come to the Big Festivals.  Great.  Apply that how?

So, my second thought about looking back at last year's trends is to look at the big streaming artists to see if those correlate to who will play the festivals.  The data I could find is kind of messy, sometimes it is US-centric, other times global, other times it is based on tracks and not whole bands...

The top five Spotify artists for streams in the US in 2015 were Drake, The Weeknd, Kanye West, Ed Sheeran, and Eminem.

• Drake played ACL and Coachella in 2015.  Match.
• The Weeknd played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2015.  Match.
• Kanye played Bonnaroo in 2014, but nothing in 2015.
• Ed Sheeran has not played any of the big festivals since before 2011.
• Eminem played Lolla and ACL in 2014, but none in 2015.

Top five Spotify US artist streams in 2014 was Ed Sheeran, Eminem, Coldplay, Calvin Harris, and Katy Perry.

• Ed Sheeran has not played any of the big festivals since before 2011.
• Eminem played Lolla and ACL in 2014.  Match.
• Coldplay hasn't played any of the big 4 since 2011.
• Calvin Harris played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2014.  Match.
• Katy Perry has not played any of the big festivals between 2011 and 2016.

Top five global Spotify artist streams in 2013 were: Macklemore, Avicii, Daft Punk, Eminem, and Imagine Dragons.

• Macklemore played Roo in 2013 (and Lolla in 2012).  Match.
• Avicii played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2012, but none in 2013.
• Daft Punk.  Nope.
• Eminem played Lolla and ACL in 2014, but none in 2013.
• Imagine Dragons played Lollapalooza in 2013.  Match.

Top five global bands for streams in 2012 were: Coldplay, Maroon 5, Fun., Mumford & Sons, and Florence & the Machine.

• Coldplay played ACL and Lolla in 2011, but nothing in 2012.
• Maroon 5 has not played a festival during this time period.
• Fun. played Bonnaroo and Lollapalooza in 2012 (as well as ACL in 2013 and Coachella in 2011).  Match.
• Mumford & Sons played Bonnaroo and Coachella in 2011, and then Lolla in 2013, but nothing in 2012.
• Florence + the Machine played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2012.  Match.

Most played track artists in 2011 were Foster the People, Gym Class Heroes, Adele, Rihanna, and Maroon 5.

• Foster the People played ACL, Coach, and Lolla in 2011.  Match.
• Gym Class Heroes didn't play the big 4.
• Adele has not played the festival circuit during this time period.
• Rihanna didn't play the big 4 festivals.
• Maroon 5 not on festival circuit.

So, what does all of that mean?  It means that ACL books one of the biggest streaming acts of the year, almost every year.  Foster the People in 2011, Florence in 2012, none in 2013, Eminem and Calvin Harris in 2014, and Drake and the Weeknd in 2015.  Now, how the hell do I find out who are the top streaming artists of 2016 so far?  So far, that task appears to be impossible.  Its harder than finding classic Prince songs to stream online.

Billboard has a top streaming song feature, and it shows that the top streamers so far in 2016 have been Beiber, Zayn, Rihanna, or something called Desiigner.  If you look at the Hot 100 singles from Billboard, it has those plus Adele.  None of those groups are coming to ACL.  Well, maybe Desiigner is one of the EDM/rap slots.  I dunno.

Spotify's charts only show what is the top streaming song right now, but it doesn't tell you anything for the collective year.  And the current top songs are Drake, Desiigner, Rihanna, Fifth Harmony, and Mike Posner.  They are not coming to ACL.

Crap, I don't think this measure works.  I need Spotify to provide a deeper data dive.

R.I.P. Prince

Man, I just complained about this in my Merle Haggard post, but WTF, 2016?  Maybe every year takes some big stars from us, but this year just feels outrageous.  Prince was only friggin' 57, man.  I thought there was no doubt that I'd get to see him perform live sometime in my lifetime.  Such a bummer.

I liked some old Bowie, and I enjoyed some Haggard in my time, but PRINCE?  I mean, this guy was one of the formative artists of my childhood.  I'd say that, until I came into my own musical style in junior high or high school, Prince, MJ, and Madonna were the artists I identified with the most.  I had a bootleg tape of Prince that I had recorded off of one of my siblings' records, until high school when I finally bought his three disc HITS/B-Sides box.  That thing was the freaking bomb, and I used it to great effect at camp and college dances in the year after.

Think about his hit songs: When Doves Cry, Let's Go Crazy, 1999, Controversy, I Wanna Be Your Lover, Delirious, Purple Rain, Little Red Corvette, I Would Die 4 U, Raspberry Beret, Kiss, Gett Off, Cream, 7, Sexy MF, I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man, Diamonds and Pearls.  Shit, man, Batdance went to number 1.  And a bunch of the filler-type stuff that never made the greatest hits albums, still awesome.

And even away from the critical acclaim, just think about how innovative and freaky and weird and awesome Prince was.  I'm sure a million words will be spilled in this very subject in the press in the next few days, but seriously, Prince was bringing this fantastic funk sensibility to pop and rock music. And also the guy could freaking slay the guitar.  He wasn't just a pop star, he could literally shred on the guitar.  I always think of When Doves Cry, but he also jams it in I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.

I think "When Doves Cry" is my favorite of his songs, although "Let's Go Crazy" and "1999" are close competitors.  And anyone who ever danced at Calhoun's in Sherman, Texas in the mid-90's knows that "Sexy MF" is a serious ass jam, ready made to get hot and heavy chicks to the dance floor.

Unfortunately, the man took all of his music off of Spotify a year ago or so, so I am left without the ability to jump right back into his catalog for reminiscing purposes.  I've been listening on YouTube this afternoon, but most of the "Prince" music I can find on there is either from his recent albums (which are nothing in comparison to the classics) or they are covers by terrible artists.  So tonight, I'll have to go fire up my MP3s and pour something out for the almighty symbol.  Damn.

Edit: You also should go here and watch the video of this Super Bowl halftime performance, because it is freaking awesome.  Can you imagine being those rain-soaked fans in that crowd?  That would be the best day of their lives.

Also, the radio played Let's Go Crazy on my drive home yesterday, and I got all goosebumped and sad while trying to sing along.  I wish I could have been part of the big crowd to go jam in the streets in MN yesterday night.

ACL 2016 Lineup Predictions: Spreadsheet Insanity

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

In thinking about my Way Too Early Predictions post, I was wishing to myself that I had stronger data that I could use to make slightly better informed guesses about the lineup.  In general, I like the predictions I made, but as a data nerd and spreadsheet lover, I wanted to see if I could up my game on that front.  Which is when I fell into the rabbit hole that is this spreadsheet.  The night that I finished this thing, my eyeballs wanted to bleed.

What you have here is a spreadsheet showing all of the performers for the Big Four Festivals from 2011 through 2016.  Someday I'll go further back, but this is all a foolish waste of time and I had to limit it somehow to maintain sanity.  For now, it includes the new Lollapalooza lineup, but obviously doesn't have the 2016 lineup for ACL yet.

Caveat: I know that there is some data missing from here, because every once in a while I noted that a band I'd seen at ACL was not marked for that year.  I think the websites listing historical lineups may not have been updated over time so that later additions to lineups may have been missing.  But this is the best I was able to do with the Internet I've got.

Of note from here so far, there are several bands that are playing the other big three (Coachella, Lolla, and Bonnaroo), so I'd say they have a pretty good chance of ending up on our lineup as well:

• Chris Stapleton.  Agreed, I figured this one.
• Ellie Goulding.  Same.
• Halsey.  I doubt it, since she played ACL last year.  But, she also played Lolla last year and is back for another bite.
• LCD Soundsystem.  Yep, the band that must play all festivals in 2016.  It's law.
• M83.  Again, the band that shall play all festivals.  And they just played Stubb's, so I bet they'll be here.
• Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats.  Yep.
• Vince Staples.  Doubt it since he was here last year.

There are a bunch of bands playing only two of the other big ones, so that would be more of a maybe:

• Years & Years. Played here last year, so I doubt it.
• X Ambassadors.  Almost certain to keep pushing their short moment in the sun.
• Wolf Alice.  I hope so, even though they played second weekend last year.
• Two Door Cinema Club.  Last played ACL in 2012, so why the heck not?
• Third Eye Blind.  I figured this was a joke with 'Roo, but maybe not now?
• The Last Shadow Puppets.  New album, buzz from having an Arctic Monkey in the band, I think yes.
• The Front Bottoms.  Uhhhh.  I like the band name.
• The Chainsmokers.  I'd have said yes previously, but if they aren't playing Lolla, then maybe not?
• The Arcs.  I'd have predicted yes, but not so sure since they are playing another Austin Festival this year.  Hope they come, I dig it.
• The 1975.  Hope not, but I suspect we'll get them.
• Tchami.  God bless you.
• St. Lucia.  I was hoping this was a different band.  Electro means likely we have to have them.
• Silversun Pickups.  Sounds right, predicted them previously.
• Saint Motel.  I hope so, their music is fun.
• Purity Ring.  Same here.  And the last time Roo and Coach had them (in 2013, ACL had them too)
• Miike Snow.  Not into them from what I know, but seems likely.  Although, the last time they were booked for Coach and Lolla at the same time (2012), they didn't do ACL.
• Mavis Staples.  That would be tight.
• Major Lazer.  Sigh.  Probably.
• Lord Huron.  Sadly, likely not because he was here last year.  Loved it though, saw him both weekends.
• Lettuce.  Get Funky!
• Leon Bridges.  I vote yes, despite him being here last year.  We need him again!
• Kurt Vile & the Violators.  Likely not since he was here last year.
• J. Cole.  I bet we'll have him.  Good, but my only hope is that he's down on the 5th line or so.
• Haim.  Likely, they haven't been in a few years.
• Griz.  Doubt it since he was here last year.
• Grimes.  Sure, makes sense.
• G-Eazy.  I'd say I doubt it since he was here last year, but he also played Lolla last year and is on the lineup for this year too.  Who knows?
• Foals.  Yes, I'm feeling it.
• Flume.  Sure, also feeling that one.
• Flosstradamus.  Doubt it, since they were here in 2015.
• Fidlar.  Same, here last year.
• Disclosure.  Ditto.
• Daughter.  Same again.
• Con Brio.  Also a last year ACL band.
• Chvrches.  Would enjoy seeing them again, but not sure if they'd come right back after 2014.  In 2014, they played all four of the majors, but they're not slated to play Lolla this year.  Seems to show they won't be here.
• Borns.  Played ACL last year.
• Big Grams.  Fully expect them to be here.
• Alessia Cara.  Yes, expect her to be at ACL.
• Also, groups I have nothing to say about right now: Zhu, Snakehips, Snails, Skepta, Shamir, Rufus Du Sol, RL Grime, Oh Wonder, Mr. Carmack, Louis the Child, Lolawolf, Lapsley, Kamasi Washington, Jarryd James, Ibeyi, Haelos, Frances, Cloves, Cashmere Cat, Bob Moses, Autolux, AlunaGeorge, Adventure Club, AC Slater.

I think those ones with the sweep up above are pretty likely except for Staples and Halsey.  On the second group, I'm guessing Alessia Cara, Big Grams, Flume, Foals, Grimes, Haim, Major Lazer, Miike Snow, Purity Ring, Silversun Pickups, The 1975, the Last Shadow Puppets, and the X Ambassadors.  We shall find out soon!

Quick Hits, Vol. 85 (Kanye West, The Heavy, Sturgill Simpson, Thao & the Get Down Stay Down)

ACL lineup to be announced in a few weeks!  May 5.  I need to get out some more thoughts about the lineup before then, so I gotta stop working so much and get to playing.

Kanye West - The Life of Pablo.  I almost feel bad writing more words about this guy - the last person in the world who needs more people to parse his ego and discuss him at length. But this is an interesting album.  There is a great a capella track, "I Love Kanye," with him rapping about how "I miss the old Kanye ... chop up the soul Kanye, ... I hate the new Kanye ... spaz in the news Kanye."  For me, and I know for a bunch of other fans, that is entirely true.  College Dropout was absolutely amazing.  So many great beats.  So many excellent lines of wordplay and interesting similes and metaphors and odd combinations of pop culture.  It was awesome.  I have this great memory of listening to that album for the first time ever, in my sister-in-law's boyfriend's crappy Saab convertible as we drove around L.A. Such a perfect juxtaposition of cleverness and braggadocio.
But the end of that same song is: "I love you, like Kanye loves Kanye."  So very true.  I'd say it was tongue in cheek, except it ain't.   Now, its all brags.  He claims he made Taylor Swift famous.  He claims people lined up for days to buy his stupid shoes.  He wishes he could have a GoPro on his dickhead so people could watch in slow mo.  He claims his wife's stupid app shut down the app store.  And its all damn AutoTune again too (well, not all, but so very much AutoTune).  Don't we all remember when Jay Z declared that dead?  Oh, no, wait, he did that on one of those garbage recent albums that no one listened to.  Nevermind. Long live fake vocals!
Interestingly, this album has been available on Spotify now for a few weeks, but none of the songs cracks his top ten most popular.  Most of the tracks have less than 10 million listens, so maybe its not that big of a hit?  Hard to tell, but since I doubt a lot of people signed up for dumb Tidal just to hear this disc, I'd expect that he would have had more listens.  The top one is that track that claims he made TayTay famous, titled "Famous."  It has about 34 million streams.

Look, that beat is great.  And the video is funny stuff.  But I feel like the point of the lyrics is just to get people all riled up and writing more stupid words about a stupid controversy that just further feeds the massive ego festival that is Kanye West.  The beat drop in "Father Stretch My Hands," the beat in "Feedback," even the beat in the dumbass "Facts," those are good moments.  I also like The Weeknd's hook in "FML."  But then "Waves" sounds kinda dumb (and I'm almost as tired of the Chris Brown hooks in rap as I am of the AutoTune), "Freestyle 4" is pretty weak, and the moron lyrics of "Facts," those are not good moments. There are a few flashes on here that are worth holding on to, but the majority of this can go back to Tidal for those 8 people to listen to.  I heard somewhere that he has been changing the songs even after their release, which is such a weird but very Kanye thing to do.  But it makes sense, because this whole thing feels unfinished.

The Heavy - Hurt & the Merciless.  Good, fun, funky stuff.  Not entirely sure what this should be called, rockin' soul?  Funky doo-wop rock?  It comes alongside the Nathaniel Rateliff sound, maybe some of the Jack White or Black Keys old school rock sense, with a southern tinge as well.  This band had a minor hit a few years back with "How You Like Me Now," which was in movies and commercials and sounded pretty tight as well.  The hit off of this one, with almost 600k streams, is called "Since You Been Gone."

Got those horns pumping, baby.  Hell of a good track.  "Turn Up" and "Slave to your Love" also bring the funk and the horns and make a fun jam.  And they can also take it down a notch and burn it up with stuff like "Goodbye Baby" and "Nobody's Hero."  I bet these dudes would be a fun band to see live for sure.

Sturgill Simpson - A Sailor's Guide to Earth.  I mean, I love this guy.  I know I'm very much not alone in that sentiment, as any middle aged guy who hates Nashville bro-country but likes the old outlaws is required by DNA and law to think Sturgill is the best thing of all time, but I just thoroughly enjoy the guy's tunes.  The last album was classic, and although I've only heard this one 7 or 8 times, I'm starting to feel the same way here.  Although be warned that the last album stayed much more true to the country rules.
First, he opens with this piano ballad for his first born son ("Welcome to Earth (Pollywog)") that evolves into a kick ass blast of Stax-horns-funk-fueled soul.  That is part of why I dig on this guy - he's not just sticking with a formulaic method of pandering to the country crowd - he's crossing boundaries and making kick ass music, regardless of the sound.  And as a dad, this kind of stuff hits right on up there into home.  Second, he covers Nirvana.  I mean, bold ass move, but he pulls it off and I dig it.  I've been singing his version of "In Bloom" for days.  He dropped old school 80's on us in the last album with "The Promise," now he went grunge, so I'm predicting he covers a Lil Wayne track next album.

The hit so far off the the album is my favorite track on here, which is a little more traditionally country (with a dose of southern rock), but its a good one.  "Brace for Impact (Live a Little)" has almost a million listens on Spotify, and its just a well-done track.

Make sure you live a little, man.  Be a scary old guy running down gravestones in your hot rod, and you'll be more satisfied when you are dead. Good stuff.  I think my only beef with the album is that its too damn short.  9 songs and 38 minutes?  Come on man, keep it coming.  Cover "Mayonnaise," "Sober," and "Peaches" to make some 90's alt history.  The other extremely fun track on here is the album closer, "Call to Arms," which sounds like it could be a Blues Brothers rave-up, that includes a succinct review of the current state of entertainment media ("bullshit on the TV, bullshit on the radio").

I'm curious to hear how this one will be received by the hardcore country fans, those who listen because of the lineage before Sturgill with comparisons to Haggard and Jennings. But as it stands, this is some funky, rockin' country music that sounds great to me.

Thao & The Get Down Stay Down - A Man Alive.  I dig this sound as well.  Groove, like a deep ass groove you can't stand up out of, kicks in right at the start.  Its got an odd sound, kind of off-kilter and trippy at times, but underneath all of that, it grooves.  It almost has the sound of rap beat at times, but just with her voice over the top instead of a rap.  I can full on imagine a backpack rapper getting down over the funk of "The Evening."  The most popular track on Spotify right now is "Astonished Man," but the most listened to from this album is "Nobody Dies," with almost 800k spins.  I like the former more, so here you go.

For real, that is a dope ass beat that Ghostface needs to remix and collaborate on.  Let's get this thing going.  I say that as though this track isn't cool on its own, which is not what I mean at all.  I dig it just like it is.  Just thinking that there could be another cool iteration that would push this track to be more.  Some of the songs sound a bit like tUnE-yArDs, which is not my favorite thing, but I'm pretty chill about it because the rest of the album sounds good. I'm also betting that these cats make an ACL appearance, so maybe we'll get even more time with them in the near future.