Predicting ACL 2017: Critical Darlings

This is one of my favorite posts to do, in part because I get to revisit the awesome spreadsheet done by Rob Mitchum that takes all of the top/reputable best album of the year lists and mashes them together into a mega list of the consensus best music of the year. Love it.  Usually I use it to do an end-of-year post, but missed out on it in 2016.  But, I have also found it useful in determining artists who might show up at ACL, with the thought being that critically acclaimed artists are more likely to be hot the next year and get named to the ACL lineup.

I first found Mitchum's spreadsheet through the Rock Critic Hivemind article that came out in 2014.  I've talked about this article a lot. If I had all the time in the world, I'd love to make something similar every year, but thankfully he is a data nerd like me and just keeps on making it.  I love him.  Although he loves Phish more than I find healthy.  Here is the 2016 spreadsheet.

Now, obviously, using this list goes for a more universal angle at critical love.  This takes everyone's thoughts into account, including non-US sources.  So we may be getting data from sources that the ACL folks would never ever look to.  The ACL booking folks may be looking at best of lists by some obscure blogger, or Austin-centric sources like The Chronicle, Waterloo Records, and the Statesman.  I dunno.  But I still think that getting the consensus picks for best of the year can shed some light on the potential lineup choices.

Here's a look at history:  in each year I'll check the year of that well-received album and the year after.  And I'm sticking to just the top 30 in each year, just because I have to limit this and not entirely lose my eyesight or fire up carpal tunnel.  Here is what I found:

With regard to the 2014 Top 30 Albums:

• Some top artists in the year end rankings got no big festival sets.  Sharon Van Etten, Aphex Twin, and Sun Kill Moon were all among the top ten of the critical darling list, but none played the big 4 festivals in 2014/2015.  Eight of the top 30 total artists had no show at any of the big 4 in either 2014 or 2015.
• In 2014, 10 of the top 30 2014 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.  So only 1/3, which isn't a real strong correlation.
• 5 of those 10 were booked for ACL, though, which is strong. (St. Vincent, Mac DeMarco, Spoon, Lana Del Rey, and Real Estate). ACL had the closest connection, as Lolla, Coach, and Roo each only had 3.  
• The next year, in 2015, 18 of the top 30 2014 artists scored a big Four Festival slot - a much stronger connection.  So maybe the critical love has to percolate a year before the artists can get booked to play a Fest.
• However, only two of those came to ACL (Sturgill and Run the Jewels), which is kind of crazy. The runaway winner for the Festival booking last year's top album artists was Cochella, with 14 of the 18 playing Coachella.  That looks like a strong connection. Lolla had five and Roo had ten.

With regard to the 2015 Top 30 Albums:

• More of the top ten got shows, as only two (9th place Sleater-Kinney and 10th place Bjork) didn't have any big four festival dates in 2015 or 2016.  Eleven total artists in the 2015 top 30 were blanked for big four festival dates in 2015/2016.
• In 2015, again, 10 of the top 30 2015 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.
• However, this time, 7 of those 10 were booked to ACL for 2015 (Tame Impala, Father John Misty, Vince Staples, Kurt Vile, Drake, Alabama Shakes, Chance the Rapper (Donnie Trumpet album)).  So even better than the year before.  Coach had 5, Roo had 4, and Lolla had 3.  So maybe ACL is the festival with the better chance to book artists with excellent albums of the year because, as just about the last fest of the year, they get more time to figure out what's good and plug it in.  Or maybe the booking people are just better.
• In 2016, 16 of the top 30 2015 artists played a big four festival show. Slightly down from the year before, but over 50% is pretty strong.
• However, only one of those came to ACL for 2016 (Kendrick Lamar), which again shows a pretty weak connection here between last year's top albums being booked to be at this year's ACL.  Instead, the C3 people are apparently going to slip out a crystal ball and predict who will be the best artists of 2017 before its even happened.  Of the other fests, Coach had 8, Roo had 8, and Lolla had 4 top 2015 artists play their 2016 festival.

How did I do last year with this metric?  I got pretty much all of them right.  I was one of two for the ones I thought would come (Kendrick and Sufjan) and then correctly called the rest of them not coming.  I had a couple of waffling predictions, like "it could happen" or "makes some sense," so I'll try to do better this year.

We likely won't see repeats of the seven who were here in 2016, so we'd be looking at the following potential matches:

• David Bowie.  Uhhh, no.  Unless they do one of those obnoxious holograms, but I'd think this is too soon for that.
• Frank Ocean.  Yeah, I guess this would be something that ACL might do.  He played Roo in 2014, but isn't scheduled to do Coach or Roo this year.  he is doing Hangout, Sasquatch, Primavera, Panorama, and some other festivals, so he's up for that type of experience.  He does not appear to have a real tour going on, just these festival dates. So he appears to have the time to be there.  I wouldn't say this excites me that much if he is going to be a headliner, but maybe he'll be down the poster a few rows for me. But I honestly don't think he makes that much sense for ACL, so I'll say no.  Might be wrong.
• Solange.  Doubt this one.  Just not the normal crowd for her type of music, to me. Essentially play the same R&B stuff as Ocean.  Between the two I'd expect Ocean, I guess I just feel like a semi-rap R&B guy like him is more likely.  Another artists who has no real tour this year, but is playing a handful of the smaller festivals (Okeechobee, Boston Calling, Primavera, Panorama).  None of these are C3 booked, so I doubt it.
• Radiohead.  Nope.  Here last year.
• Beyonce.  Man, I never would have thought that she would get added to any of the big festivals.  She can sell out any stadium right now, so you don't expect her to be on the festival circuit.  With no other current tour dates, and no other festival dates scheduled, I doubt that we get her in Austin.  [edit - now that she is apparently pregnant with twins (Red Grass and Green Lotus, I'm sure) there is no way she'll be here in October to perform.]
• Angel Olsen.  She'll be here in Austin in a week or so, playing the Mohawk for two sold out shows, so she's got local demand and a tour going on.  She's also playing Trees in Dallas (a C3 booked joint).  Like others, she's playing Primavera, Roskilde, and Panorama, as well as some other European fests.  The tour and fest dates peters out before October, so I'm going to go with yes.
• A Tribe Called Quest.  No.  I'd love to see them tour, but they seemed pretty clear that they were going to just release that last album and then be done.
• Kanye West.  Last here in 2011, so he could definitely come back to the Fest.  Recently played the Erwin Center in Austin, and I heard blah reviews.  No longer on tour.  Not playing other festivals (that I can find).  No.
• Bon Iver.  This one feels like a likely candidate. On tour behind this album, playing Coachella, Boston Calling, Primavera, and something in Minneapolis called Rock the Garden.  Very much the kind of artists that ACL would book, feels pretty good to me.
• Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds.  Hmmmm.  Here's something weird.  Googling "Nick Cave tour" gets you a google result that says he is playing Austin on Monday, June 19. If he was playing Austin in June, that seems pretty close to the festival to have a separate show.  But his website shows that he is actually playing Utah on June 19 and does not have an Austin show.  I'm going to make a random call here and decide that this means he is actually coming to ACL.  Yes.
• Chance the Rapper.  No.  Was just here two years ago and I doubt they'd bring him right back.  He is playing Roo this year, so he's back out on tour...
• ANOHNI.  Whatever this is, they/it are not playing a tour this year.  I say no.
• Danny Brown.  He was on tour last year, and played Emo's in October.  No other future tour dates on his website except for something in the UK in August.  Doubt it.
• Anderson.Paak.  No, was here last year.
• Mitski.  She's touring Europe now until coming back to the states in April for more touring, but none of that comes to Austin.  She's booked for Coachella, Primavera, Panorama, and Boston Calling, so she's out there doing the festival thing.  She feels like the kind of person who would play ACL, indie rock and strongly feminine.  I'll go with yes.  Oh, and if you haven't listened to "Your Best American Girl," you should go do it now.  She's going to crush your heart.
• Leonard Cohen.  Uhhh, no.
• Rihanna.  I don't see this one happening.  Despite Beyonce doing a fest, Rihanna just doesn't make any sense at ACL.
• KAYTRANADA.  Booked for Coachella.  Also booked for Sasquatch and something called Lightning in a Bottle.  But no other touring.  Like Danny Brown, he played Emo's at the end of 2016.  Nah, not feeling it.  Kind of cool music, but I see nothing on the web that would lead me to think ACL would book the guy.  But the music matches something you'd see here, so maybe the Emo's show was a taste test and now they'll sign him up for the real thing?  Maybe.
• Car Seat Headrest.  Yes.  Well, the definite nature of that proclamation is mainly wishful thinking, because I'd love for him to show up.  Oh, and he's playing all the festivals. Coach, Roo, Governors, Shaky Knees (c3 booked), Sasquatch, Boston Calling, . Touring Australia right now, then a little Europe before his festival run, but no dates on calendar after August 8.  I say lock this one in.
• Blood Orange.  No tour, but playing some tiny festivals.  Played Roo last year, played Lolla and Coachella in 2014.  I guess he'll play a fest, but I see nothing that leads me to believe he'd be here this year.  No.
• Kendrick Lamar.  No, here last year.
• Young Thug.  Man, I hope not.  he was at Sound on Sound last year, and I doubt that he'd be back to another Austin fest so soon, but he is playing a few small fests this spring and summer.  I'll say no.
• The 1975.  Another band that would really shock me if they were on the poster for ACL, just not the type of music I'd expect here.  On the pro side, they are playing the south American Lolla shows.  On the con side, they are playing two nights in Austin in April.  Playing a few small festivals, and played Lolla and Coach last year.  I'm going with no.
• Sturgill Simpson.  Nah.  I wish he would, I'd love to see him for a fourth time, but he was just here in 2015 (when he played all four big fests) and he has no tour dates on his calendar.  Don't see it happening.
• Jenny Hval.  No clue what this even is.  The picture she has on google is of her with a plastic bag on her head.  Mmmkay.  Playing Austin (the Barracuda) on May 29, so I'd guess no on booking her for ACL.  No.
• Parquet Courts.  On a little bit of tour this year, ending on Feb. 9.  They were here in 2013, so there is precedent to bring them back, but I don't see anything online or hear any buzz about them that would make me think they'll be here.  No.
• Nicholas Jaar.  Never heard of this guy before, he is apparently a Chilean-American composer, who does kind of Latin-inflected EDM stuff?  He is playing Coachella, Primavera, and Panorama, and his tour ends before ACL, so he could be there.  I have no reason to suspect he'd be there, but then again, this would fall into the sweet spot ACL inhabits now of EDM love and Texas' latin roots, so maybe this makes sense.  I'll step out on a limb and say yes.
• Skepta.  English rapper guy who has at least one good song I've heard.  Playing Governor's Ball, Primavera, and Lolla Paris, but otherwise doesn't have a tour.  I guess he could end up here, but I have no reason to think he'd come do it.  I'll say no.
• James Blake.  Hope not.  I wouldn't say I liked his last album too much.  He has a few tiny festival dates, stuff I've never heard of before in Toluca, Mexico, Gdynia, Poland, and Rotselaar, Belgium.  Going with a solid no here.
• Margo Price.  Nope, here last year.

It appears that I've identified quite a few more people in this list to come to ACL thna would be normal.  Angel Olsen, Bon Iver, Nick Cave, Mitski, Car Seat Headrest, and Nicolas Jaar.  Looks like a terrible lineup to me (save for Car Seat Headrest), but I'm more than likely entirely wrong, right?

Books from 2016

I obviously listen to too much freaking music.  I get that.  One thing that I really want to do in 2017 is increase the amount of pleasure reading I do in any given day, because on top of the mountains of music I consume, I also watch a bunch of TV or movies in the late night hours of the day.  So, with that in mind, I'm going to commit (to myself) to reading at least one book a month, and I'll make a note on here about the book and whether it was worth a read.  But, before I get to that, I'll give a short mention to what I read last year.

In no particular order (other than memory of what I read):

1. Scar Tissue, the biography of Anthony Keidis.  I mentioned this one before, but it is a great read.  Sometimes gets bogged down in drug history, and it is most definitely not written by someone with a PhD in English composition, but I found it fascinating. Much debauchery, sex, drug use, and people being extremely patient with Keidis.  My favorite part of the whole thing were the portions where he explained the genesis or meaning of songs.  And I love the Chilis, so this one ranks highly on my list of books enjoyed last year.
2. Drew Magary - The Hike.  I love Magary's writing on Deadspin, so this was a no-brainer to read.  Kind of like a modern Stephen King novel translated through an arcade game, where you're never sure who is what and the protagonist escapes issues by solving puzzles, its a super quick and fun read.  I liked it a lot.
3. Ready Player One - Ernest Cline.  This book is awesome.  Totally packed with 80's references, and yet a future dystopian story, I loved it and highly recommend.
4. Being Mortal - Atul Gawande.  My dad gave me this book some time ago, saying that it had been an interesting read that resonated with him.  The main thrust of the book is how we, as Americans, do a crappy job of dying well.  We usually go in a hospital room, stuffed full of sensors and tubes, sick as hell from drugs, instead of in a comfortable place , relaxing, with our loved ones around.  So, instead of fighting for every second of life, he argues that it is better to enjoy the time left.  I honestly didn't know a ton about hospice care, but the way he explains that mission, it really sounds like a wonderful thing.  I agree with the old man that it is a fascinating read.  Kinda depressing, but still very good.
5. Inside the Dome - Stephen King.  I've read a ton of King over the years, and this was another good one, although I had a thought about halfway through that it runs through the same story as a number of his books.  A couple of good people having to deal with some evil people and one of the evil guys is highly religious and one is a psychopath and the other bad people just blindly do what they're told.  I liked the book, but don't expect any real horror here, more suspense.
6. Mr. Mercedes - Stephen King.  This one is a little more intense, and is also good, but I'd say not so much a horror novel as a suspense mystery book.  Although a friend made a funny observation that the boy band that features heavily in the book shows just how old and out of touch with kids King might have become, as they sing about old timey things.  Kind of funny.
7. Water Knife - Paolo Bacigalupi.  Loved this one too.  I apparently enjoy some future dystopian books.  This one describes a future where water is so scarce that large chunks of the country are uninhabited and Phoenix is dying.  The Water Knife is a mercenary employed by the water hungry folks in power in Vegas, and its a good character, one of those flawed animals that you end up rooting for despite his issues.  This one was a super quick read, I couldn't put it down.
8. Bossypants - Tina Fey.  This book is freaking hilarious.  Significantly better than the Amy Poehler book.  Its kind of biography, kind of storytelling, kind of random jokes, but I laughed out loud several times.
9. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.  While I wish it had been a real book and not a play script, I ate this sucker up with relish.  And I think I paid like $30 for the dumb book in some hoity toity bookstore in Colorado, but I saw it and had to have it.  I need more HP in my life.

That is all I can remember for right now.  I may have read others, but I kind of doubt it.  Here's to many more books in the new year.  If you have suggestions for what I should read, holla at your boy.

New Orleans Jazz Fest Lineup Announced

Before I get to the Jazz Fest lineup, a few other interesting recent lineup announcements I thought I'd touch on:

• Fortress Festival in Fort Worth, April 29-30.  Run the Jewels, Purity Ring, Nathaniel Rateliff, Houndmouth, Alvvays, Quaker City Night Hawks (who you may not have heard of but they rock), and Slowdive (as well as Flying Lotus and others).  Small lineup, but a pretty rad one.
• Rolling Loud Festival in Miami, May 5-7.  Best damn rap-centric lineup I think I've ever seen. Kendrick, Lil Wayne, A$AP Rocky, Kevin Gates, Action Bronson, Flatbush Zombies, Future, Travis Scott, Young Thug, Mac Miller, Tyler, Migos, and much more. Pretty insane.  Too bad it isn't in Houston (with Scarface!)
• Firefly in Delaware got a weird grouping, with the Weeknd, 21 Pilots, Muse, and Bob Dylan.  But they also got Franz Ferdinand and Weezer and Chance the Rapper and the Shins.  But that top line ain't doin' nuttin' fo me.

Jazz Fest, which sometimes competes with the big four for strength of lineup (and last year killed it, in my opinion) brings another really strong lineup for 2017.  

Big Three:

• Stevie Wonder.  Hell yes.  I've never seen him, but I feel like I need to remedy that quick before the curse of 2016 starts taking more of our older stars.
• Tom Petty.  Another I've never seen but I want to really badly.  I think I have a line on tickets for when he comes to the Erwin Center in May, but this would be tight.
• Maroon 5.  Really?  I've seen them for years listed as one of the big Live Nation bands, but never thought they'd be playing a big festival.  Maybe this is the year (with Bey coming to Coach) that the pop stars really come to big festivals.

Other exciting stuff:

• Dave Matthews Band.  I've been wanting to see these guys again for a long time, and was hoping they might do ACL last year.
• Kings of Leon.  I'm figuring them to make an appearance in Austin this fall, and would enjoy seeing them again.
• Usher and the Roots.  Huh.  Another surprising one, to have a pop/R&B guy like Usher show up at a festival stage.
• Alabama Shakes.  HOW ARE THEY BEHIND F'ING MEGHAN TRAINOR ON THE POSTER?!?  All of New Orleans should be bombed for this atrocity.
• Snoop Dogg!
• Lorde.  Again, she appears to be the one on tour of all the fests this year, like the XX.
• Nas!  I'd love to check him out live.  Boss level.
• Wilco.  Would be cool to see them again.  And the fact that these dudes are 17 artists down on the poster is pretty wild.
• Widespread Panic.  I'd go see them again.  Last time was like 20 years ago, but I'd check it out.
• Also: Leon Bridges, The Revivalists, Rhiannon Giddens, Dawes, Margo Price.  Hell, I bet Earth, Wind, and Fire would be fun.  And Blues Traveler apparently still exists!  Holy crap!

Really solid lineup.  But, in addition to the aforementioned Maroon 5, you've got Meghan Trainor, Usher, and Pitbull.  That is a pretty heavy mega-pop-star contingent for a festival. Interesting to see.

As with last year, it is a two weekend festival, but unlike ACL, they do fresh lineups for each weekend, which kind of sucks for those of us who aren't in N.O., and so most days are actually relatively tame.  For example, despite all of those great bands I just listed, the first Friday gives you Nas and Leon Bridges, and then a bunch of stuff I'm not that interested in like Harry Connick Jr. Or the first Saturday gives you Alabama Shakes, and then some blah stuff like Maroon 5 and Usher and Jonny Lang.  So, really, none of the days is exceptionally strong, and you don't get any repeats of the big headliners.  I prefer the ACL format where you get all the big stars regardless of which weekend you go.  But, if I live in N.O., I'd love this ability to spend two full weekends eating this whole pie.

Predicting ACL 2017: Bands Playing the International Lolla Fests

We've talked quite a bit about how there is a strong link between the Lollapalooza lineup and the ACL lineup.  I still think that link is pretty strong, although we have yet to find out what the lineup will be for this year's party in Grant Park.  Until then, I thought I'd have a look at the four international Lollapalooza lineups to see if we could divine anything from those posters.

Last year, Lollapalooza continued to expand out into other locales (other than Chi Town), with Lollas in Germany, Brazil, Argentina, and Chile.  So, I also looked some at the other Lolla babies to see what they offered to see if some of those might connect to the ACL world.  Let's look back at headliners on those 2016 shows to see if there was a relationship.

• Lolla Brazil, Argentina and Chile all had the same top 6 headliners: Eminem (no), Florence & the Machine (no), Jack U (no), Mumford & Sons (yes), Snoop Dogg (no), Noel Gallagher (no).  So only 1 of 6 match.
• Lolla Berlin: Radiohead (yes), Kings of Leon (no), Major Lazer (yes), Paul Kalkbrenner (no, wtf?), Phillip Poisel (no, wtf again?), New Order (no). 2 of 6 match.

Apparently the German folks like to hear some EDM that is so cool I haven't even heard of it.  But this makes it appear that there could be some overlap, but it is going to be negligible in comparison to the relationship between the Chicago Lolla and ACL.

How about this year?

• Lolla Brazil: Metallica, The Strokes, The Weeknd, The xx, The Chainsmokers, Flume. (also lesser items I've seen on lots of posters: Marshmello, Glass Animals)
• Lolla Argentina: Metallica, The xx, The Chainsmokers, The Strokes, The Weeknd, Flume.
• Lolla Chile: Metallica, The Strokes, The Weeknd, The xx, The Chainsmokers, Flume
• Lolla Paris: Red Hot Chili Peppers, The Weeknd, Imagine Dragons, Lana Del Rey, DJ Snake, London Grammar (Glass Animals, Marshmallo)

I don't know why I listed all of the south American ones out like that, since they are all the same.  Whatever.  You don't own me.

But, lookee there.  My gut intuition bands included both Metallica and the Red Hot Chili Peppers.  And whenever I get around to talking about bands that are playing every fest, I'll talk about the xx.  We've already recently suffered through The Weeknd, The Strokes, Chainsmokers, and Flume, so we won't get them again.  So maybe only 1 or 2 matches from each poster, which would fit the past pattern.  AND this continues to make me feel strong about a killer rock lineup with Metallica and the Red Hots.  Would be sweet!

2017 Grammy Nominations: Rap

Still working my way through some of the Grammy nominations to make sure I know who is who when I am picking apart the dumb decisions by the Grammy decision-makers.  Here are some thoughts about the rap nominations.

Best Rap Performance:

• "No Problem" — Chance The Rapper Featuring Lil Wayne & 2 Chainz
• "Panda" —Desiigner
• "Pop Style" — Drake Featuring The Throne
• "All The Way Up" — Fat Joe & Remy Ma Featuring French Montana & Infared
• "That Part" — ScHoolboy Q Featuring Kanye West 

"IF ONE MO LABEL TRY TO STOP ME, ITS GOAN BE SOME DREADHEAD BROTHAS IN THA LOBBY!  HUAH HUAH!!!"  I saw a UT football promo video the other day with "No Problem" as the backing track and wanted to groove, hump, and chew fluorescent light bulbs all at the same time.  I'll also give respect to "Panda," despite its inherent stupidity, for having the hook of the year and being an unstoppable earworm.  My kids and I just randomly said "pandapandapanda" to each other over and over all summer.  Drake sucks on toast, and that song is jenky as crap.  Oh, wow, I had no clue that Fat Joe did that "All the Way Up" track I've heard before.  Popcorn rap song and all, but it sure sounds tough.  "That Part," especially the Black Hippy remix, is salty shit.  But the regular version with just Kanye feels a little tossed off.  Last year, Kendrick won over the garbage song of the year ("Trap Queen"), a Drake piece of garbage ("Back to Back"), and Kanye, J. Cole, and Nicki Minaj.  So I am going to go with Chance winning this one.

Best Rap Song:

• "All The Way Up" — Fat Joe & Remy Ma Featuring French Montana & Infared
• "Famous" — Kanye West Featuring Rihanna
• "Hotline Bling" — Drake
• "No Problem" — Chance The Rapper Featuring Lil Wayne & 2 Chainz
• "Ultralight Beam" — Kanye West Featuring Chance The Rapper, Kelly Price, Kirk Franklin & The-Dream

If Kanye hadn't made that obnoxious video for "Famous," would people have even noticed it?  Kind of doubt it.  Oh no, wait, he called TayTay a bitch and said he made her famous, which set off controversy as well.  Ugh.  The guy is so insufferable now.  And "Ultralight Beam" is better, just because it is so odd, but whatever I still don't think it should be considered best of the year. Especially when Chance came along next and took the gospel-tinged rap crown, polished it up, and pulled it down over his ears with a smirk.  How unoriginal are the Grammys that stupid Kanye gets two nominations for this weak crap?  I know that "Hotline Bling" was annoying in its ubiquity, but I actually enjoyed it better than anything else on that album.  I guess I'll say that Chance win this one too, although I doubt it.  Probably dumb Kanye's Ultralight Beam.

Best Rap Album:

• Coloring Book — Chance The Rapper
• And the Anonymous Nobody — De La Soul
• Major Key — DJ Khaled
• Views — Drake
• Blank Face LP — ScHoolboy Q 
• The Life of Pablo — Kanye West

I was about to get pissed that the Tribe album wasn't in here, but it was released after the eligibility period for the 2017 awards.  The only one of these I haven't already reviewed is DJ Khaled.  His guest list is impeccable, from Jay Z, Kendrick, Nas, and Lil Wayne to Big Sean, YG, Busta Rhymes, and Nicki Minaj.  And then some chumps like Future, Drake, J. Cole, and Travis Scott in the middle. I was kind of impressed until about the 5th and 6th songs, when the beats got less original and I started to get bored, but I'll say that this is significantly better than I expected.  Nas and Big Sean sound freaking good. Chris Brown still makes me want to vomit and Future is on too many tracks.  Oh God, and then Megan Trainor dumps all over a song near the end.  I'll review this one in full some time, but my initial impression on this one is good.  That being said, I think that Chance should win this one, with Schoolboy in my second place slot, but fear that the old turds in charge of this will give it to Kanye.

2017 Grammys: (some) Rock Nominations

Best Rock Performance:

• "Joe (Live From Austin City Limits)" — Alabama Shakes
• "Don't Hurt Yourself" — Beyoncé Featuring Jack White
• "Blackstar" — David Bowie
• "The Sound Of Silence" — Disturbed
• "Heathens" — Twenty One Pilots

I'm a big sucker for Alabama Shakes anyway, and that track (which you can hear as a single on Spotify) is some sultry blues burning the damn house down.  But it is too short.  Gimme more.  And so then I re-listened to Sound and Color again and I love it all over again.  So good.  OF COURSE, I can't hear the dang Bey track on Spotify, only through YouTube, and the only YouTube versions are live and garbage and don't involve Jack White.  I don't know if this one is good or not.  The worst thing about the Bowie song is that its freaking 10 minutes long.  And it's just fine, so 10 minutes makes it brutal.  Had no clue Disturbed even still existed.  I kind of thought they made "Down with the Sickness" and then hung it up.  And yes, this tune is a shitty gothy remake of the Simon & Garfunkel song that sounds like it should probably be on the Transformers 19: Age of Steel Buttholes soundtrack.  I had to hear 10 seconds of "Heathens" the other day while waiting to watch Suicide Squad and it made me want to claw my ears out.  So, I guess I'm hoping for the Shakes, but expect it will be Bowie.

Best Rock Album:

• California — Blink-182
• Tell Me I'm Pretty — Cage The Elephant
• Magma — Gojira
• Death Of A Bachelor — Panic! At The Disco
• Weezer — Weezer

Holy crap, dude.  I guess the same guy who got the Academy to nominate Slipknot last year is still in on the nomination process, because the Gojira album is some triple-time bass drummer with vocal chord and guitar shreddage. Weird, because it would seem to me that you would put these dudes into the Metal category, but maybe I missed that lesson in genre definition class.  You be the judge, here is "Stranded," their most popular and probably most regular rock-ish.

Beyond that, I liked the Blink, Cage, and Weezer albums when I previously reviewed them, and thought the Panic! album was pretty good.  Of the five, I'd prefer to keep listening to the Cage the Elephant album, so I'll say that they win.  I don't see any of these looking like a lock.

Best Alternative Music Album:

• 22, A Million — Bon Iver
• Blackstar — David Bowie
• The Hope Six Demolition Project — PJ Harvey
• Post Pop Depression — Iggy Pop
• A Moon Shaped Pool — Radiohead

I've never much liked PJ Harvey, but I actually found myself bopping along to this album and listening to the lyrics with pleasure.  It still has some annoyingly grating moments, but it also has some clever and enjoyable bits.  The Bon Iver album is weird and twitchy and other than the lead single, I won't say I care for it.  Bowie is fine, and I always feel like an asshole when I fail to properly felate him about this album since the guy died, but its just true.  The Radiohead album was mediocre, and after seeing them play some of the songs live, I'm even more bored by it.  But, I liked the Iggy album.  So I guess I'd like to see that one win, but I suspect this one will go to the dead guy.

Quick Hits, Vol. 110 (YG, Violent Soho, Dinosaur Jr., Joseph)

YG - Red Friday.  muzzyonnabeathoe!  I enjoy me some YG, even though he's more of the party and BS brand of rap with very little to enrich yourself from.  I'm going to start calling that Popcorn Rap.  Usually produced by DJ Mustard, so he's got pretty solid beats.  If "I Be On" or "Down Bitch" weren't such dumb garbage lyrically, I'd bump the beats all day.  The big track off the album, with over 8.4 million streams is "One Time Comin'," which is an ode to that single moment you had sex.  Oh, no, wait, it is about the cops coming and what you should do (apparently say "oh shit" and begin running).

Damn, man.  That video is too real.  I'd say you should watch it to the end to see what happens when a black guy runs from the cops, but you probably already know what happens.  Damn.  I'll hope that the full album to come out soon will be better than this little one, because I'm not too impressed by any of this.

Violent Soho - WACO.  The album title has me all sorts of internet sleuthing around here. Who would intentionally name their album after Wac-town?  These dudes are from Brisbane, Australia, so that isn't helpful.  I haven't found that they are fans of Baylor or the combined initials of Washington and Colorado that news stations kept showing when both of those states passed legal marijuana statutes at the same time.
Apparently, they were discovered by Thurston Moore of Sonic Youth, signed to a big label and moved to Brooklyn, fell into the gears of the machine and got ground into pieces.  They got dropped by the label and moved back to Brisbane, where the guitarist applied to work at McDonalds.  But then they got nominated for an ARIA (the Aussie version of a Grammy) and decided to give it a go again, resulting in their third album (the one before this) which went gold and turned them into huge stars in Australia.  But none of this has answered my essential question.
Until, holy shit, they really did name it after Waco, Texas.  "Guitarist James Tidswell explains: “It’s not about the actual event [the Branch Davidian massacre] but rather it’s the easiest way to grab the feeling behind the album… I think it best describes how we feel in this make-believe culture of our own. They [the community at Waco] replicated an idea which they fully believed; Jesus and the Second Coming, to the point where they died believing it.”"  Woah.  Finding parallels with the whackjob Branch Davidians for your band. That is another level of crazy.
Well, anyway, this is a good album of rock and roll, dipping a toe into a grunge sound here or a pop-punk/emo sound there.  Here is my favorite, and coincidentally the most popular track, called "Like Soda," which has 3 million streams.

Starts out like a Pixies track, then kicks in like Weezer with a Sugar rush.  Those old people know how to party, yo.  I cracked up at the image of the guy taking his SMTWTFS container, dumping out the contents, crushing them up, and snorting away like some high school kid in my neighborhood. All the usual other sound-a-likes for a band like this apply here - "Evergreen" starts off like the Foo Fighters, then veers into Nirvana.  I hear screaming emo like Brand New, and some Refused here and there.  If you like that style of hard alternative rock, with occasional screaming, then this is in your sweet spot.  I like it, and want to go back and try out the Hungry Ghost album from a few years ago.

Dinosaur Jr. - Give a Glimpse of What Yer Not.  Heck yeah, back at it.  Funny thing is, I looked back at these guys' catalog, expecting that they hadn't released anything in decades, but they've continued to put music out over time.  Nothing so awesome as "Start Choppin'" though.  Classic Dino sound - guitar and fuzz forward in most songs - with "Tiny" the most popular, at just under a million streams.

Some classic alt-rock sounds right there, like the 90's never ended and these guys are still kids.  Although watching that video, they are definitely not kids anymore.  Mascis and the drummer look old.  I'd note that "Love Is..." is not in their same normal sound house.  Kind of an odd departure, each time I've listened to this album I keep thinking that the album must have ended and a new band is playing.  The best song on here is the fuzzbomb grunge classic "I Walk for Miles."  If you have any old love for Dinosaur Jr., that one is your jam.

Rock and damn roll, baby.  Just let that filthy grungyness wash all over your chuck taylor lowtops and soak into your flannel.  That is the gold right there.

Joseph - I'm Alone, No You're Not.  Like a lovely, endearing mash of First Aid Kit with Haim.  Not as spare as FAK, and not as pop/funky as Haim, but at times reminds me of both of them.  Super pretty album opener "Canyon" is the one I feel like I should play for you, but it is significantly less popular than the poppy "SOS" (4 million streams) or the uplifting "White Flag," which fires up just over 7 million streams.

Those harmonies are so very sweet.  And I want to know where that video was shot, beautiful spot to go with the song.  I've been listening to this album over and over and am enjoying it more and more as I do.  This is the kind of music my wife could wholeheartedly support and get behind, and its good for certain moods for me.

Quick Hits Vol. 109 (The Beaumonts, Red Fang, The Weeknd, The Rolling Stones)

The Beaumonts - Letting Go of the Dial.  A friend gushed about this band on Twitter a few weeks ago, so I figured I needed to give them a look.  Kind of an odd sound, like slow ska. What would that be called?  According to a website, which I assume is related to this band, they are a country band from Lubbock.  And this review of their 2013 album in the Chronicle seems to think they are joking country goons as well.  This new music is not that music, heavy on sax and strumming, not twang and rude Toby Keith lyrics.
Not a single one of the songs on this album has more than a thousand listens, so its hard to even know which one might be the most popular.  And I can't seem to find any of them on YouTube either.  Did I fall for Fake Music or something?  Dammit!  First that Facebook article on how drinking pickle juice will increase my memory, and now this!  I'll say that this is mildly pleasant relaxing ska-ish music, but I won't listen anymore.

Red Fang - Only Ghosts.  I love the 2011 album these Portland dudes did, Murder the Mountains, for its pounding, sludgy anger.  "Wires" gets me fired up any time of the day, and "Dirt Wizard" is right there behind it.  But this album is less appealing to me, a little less approachable, maybe?  It has the same sound, pounding drums, thudding bass, unhinged singing/yelling, and crushing/slashing guitar. I don't know that I can put a finger on the difference, but I just feel it.  The top track is the album opener, "Flies."

Only 414k listens for that track, while some of the other top songs by the band go over a million, but that actually seems like quite a few for a song that is so damn hard.  This album is another good experiment in my theory about track plays falling off on albums that are weak.  I've talked about this a bit before, but it seems interesting to me when the first song on an album is, by far, the most popular track on the album.  Seems to show that people go check out the album to see what they think, hear the first song, and then decide against listening to the rest.  In this album's case, the listen count goes like this (as of today, of course):

1. 414k
2. 135k
3. 79k
4. 84k
5. 123k
6. 84k
7. 59k
8. 78k
9. 48k
10. 73k

It isn't a perfect line down from the start, and this could just be that "Flies" got listed on some playlist of new metal that gets a lot of listens, but it feels indicative of people losing interest after a few tracks.  Either way, while I generally enjoy this style of stoner rock stuff, I probably won't hold on to this album.

The Weeknd - Starboy.  I have a hard time believing that this album will be anything nearly as popular as the last one.  I didn't like the last album much, but I could definitely appreciate the fact that "Can't Feel My Face" was an undeniable jam and "The Hills" even had some appeal.  But this just sounds so very generic and uninteresting to me.  The big hit, which literally is crushing it on Spotify and the radio, is the title track, which has 466 MILLION streams so far.

And another 500 million YouTube views.  Holy criminy, man.  Now look, you don't find me out there trying to make music like this, so maybe it is super hard, but that beat really sounds just like the generic stock beats that my Casio 2100 made when I was a kid, plus some falsetto singing and a boring chorus.  This doesn't make me want to crown him as the Future King of Pop, just makes me want to change the radio station my kids always want to hear.  I also think that the album starts off slow, the first half is pretty uninteresting, but then you get a Kendrick Lamar verse, a few danceable tracks in "Love to Lay" and "A Lonely Night."  Maybe the one that sounds like a Disclosure b-side - "Rockin'" - is a little better? But, 18 freaking songs, man?  Come on, man.  I won't keep this one.

The Rolling Stones - Blue & Lonesome.  Surprisingly solid collection of cover tunes from the Stones.  Most of these are way down deeper in the blues canon than I know about, so they might as well be awesome originals as far as I'm concerned.  And this is the way that the Stones have always been best to me, when they are leaning hard on the Keith Richards guitar and traditional blues sound updated with a bit of rock and roll.  I don't know about you, but I've always thought that "Tumblin' Dice" was one of my favorite Stones tracks, or "Let it Bleed," "Sympathy for the Devil," or "You Can't Always Get What you Want," and those that stick in that traditional sound.  I don't really want to hear "Satisfaction" or "Jumpin' Jack Flash."  So this one hits the right notes for me.  The top track is the album opener, "Just Your Fool," but this one ("Hate to See You Go") is the one with a video, so let's play it instead.

Mick's voice still has the perfect sound for this type of music, rough around the edges, but it doesn't sound like he's got one foot in the grave either.  And his harmonica playing is freaking solid stuff. This one feels like an update to the Exile on Main Street track "Shake Your Hips," kind of the same rhythm and licks.  I like this album enough to keep it around.

2017 Grammy Nominations: Best New Artist

Here for more on the 2017 Grammy nominations, I'm going to dive deeper into the "best new artist" category.  Our contenders:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• The Chainsmokers
• Chance The Rapper
• Maren Morris
• Anderson .Paak

Eligibility Question
Before we get started, you can go check out my convoluted examination and discussion of what makes someone eligible for being a "New" Artist.  Here is the distilled explanation:

Essentially, a "new artist" is defined for the GRAMMY process as any performing artist or established performing group who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist or established group as a performer. A GRAMMY nomination in a performance category in a prior year disqualifies an artist from competing in this category, unless the nomination came from a single or a guest spot on another artist's recording, and the artist hadn't yet released a full album.

• Ballerini's album The First Time was released on May 19, 2015.  However, the Grammy website says that "For the 59th Annual GRAMMY Awards, albums must be released between Oct. 1, 2015 and Sept. 30, 2016." So Ballerini is not eligible for this award.
• The Chainsmokers have never released a proper album, so figuring out their eligibility is a little harder, but I think their first single that "establishes the public identity" of the group was "#Selfie," which was nominated for a Teen Choice Award and "peaked on the Dance/Electronic Songs chart" in 2014 after its December 2013 release.  So they should be ineligible for this award.  The only way they get eligible is if the voters ignore "#Selfie" and decide that "Roses," "Don't Let Me Down," or "Closer," all from 2016, are the songs that identified the group.  Since "#Selfie" sucks and so does this group, I think it establishes their identity.
• Chance the Rapper is absolutely not eligible for this award.  His first mixtape - Acid Rap - was huge, absolutely put him on the map, won him a BET Hip Hop Award in 2013, made it up to #63 on the Billboard hip hop charts, was ranked as a best album of 2013 by Rolling Stone, Pitchfork, Complex, and NPR, led to him playing Lolla in 2013.  There is no way you can say with a straight face that Coloring Book first established Chance's identity with the public after how huge Acid Rap was.  Just because the Grammy guys are old and white and asleep doesn't mean that they can break their own rules now.
• Maren Morris is another one that strains the mind to establish that she is a "new" artist.  Her debut album was in 2005, her second album was in 2007, and her third album was in 2011. The big hit album (Hero) was released during the eligibility period in 2016, but come on, aren't there enough truly "new" artists, who haven't been making and selling music for more than a decade, to try to give this award to?  I won't try to argue that Hero wasn't the big breakthrough for her, but this still feels wrong.
• Anderson.Paak released his debut album in 2012, his second album in 2014, and then his most recent in January 2016.  Similarly to Morris, it seems wrong to say he is "new," but he certainly blew up just this year (and is awesome).

So, in my opinion, more than half of the nominees for sure don't even belong out here.  But we've got what we've got, so let's get to it.  I'm sticking with my past Moneyball-esque rating system which will show the deep advanced metrics and statistical relevance of each of these artists' most recent albums. This is an exact science, so know that this stuff is almost certainly 100% correct.

• SPoB.  Long recognized as a deep look at the power hitters of music, this shows the Super Position on Billboard.  Loads of proprietary metrics calculated here.  Highest position, time on the charts, and length of time since release all factor in here.  After extensive calculation and some fact checking by our friends at Price Waterhouse, it looks like Morris takes this statistic. 
• The Chainsmokers are hard to compare apples to oranges since they have no real albums.  Their EP only made it up to 31, but was on for 52 weeks, while their singles (INCLUDING "#SELFIE," DAMMIT) have hit #1 and spent many weeks on the Hot 100.  But their quadrangle fission rating was very low.
• Ballerini and her non-eligible album peaked at 31, but has been on the chart for 77 weeks.  WHICH OBVIOUSLY SHOWS THAT SHE IS INELIGIBLE, SINCE 77 WEEKS AGO WAS JULY 28, 2015!  Damnation!  Points for longevity, but she can't crack 31, which is a black mark on the ttt scale.
• Chance made it up to 8 with a 34 week total ranking.  
• Morris topped out at 5 with a 31 week stay.  
• Paak is the worst on this metric, with only one week on the Billboard 200 and that was at #79.  Really?  Shouldn't a nominee for this award have some sort of popularity?  I guess not in the land of streaming.
• OWGf.  The all-important Old White Guy factor.  Springsteen consistently bats one million on this metric.  Looking back at the past few years for this award, you've got Bon Iver, Fun, Macklemore, and Sam Smith.  100% white dudes who make middle of the road, common-denominator stuff that your grand-dad might think is hip.  And Meghan Trainor last year, who makes generically catchy crappedy stuff, but had been featured on NPR repeatedly and even had a Jimmy Fallon w/ The Roots performance.  And old white guys LOVE NPR.  The Chainsmokers terrify the crap out of a 55 year old white guy (especially if you ever watched that Ultra performance I linked this last year).  Paak appears to have pierced his face, so low marks here, and although Chance's new album sounds like gospel, his last album was named after drugs.  Ballerini has a song called "Peter Pan," and Morris has a song about being a 90's baby in her 80's Mercedes, so I bet both of them get the old voter guys all sorts of excited.  But Morris calls out church, amen, hallelujah, Cash, and Hank, so the old guys are going to like the cut of her jib.
• WmGDtT.  (pronounced WombGut, for when you are discussing this measurement at parties).  A key consideration for the voters each year, this metric measures Would my Grandkids Dance to This?  Ballerini and Morris get extremely low Q-squared value here for their super bland country stylings, which puts them far out of contention.  The Chainsmokers' original music is absolute garbage, but when they play other people's stuff into a pastiche of mashups, they can straight up bang.  But originality is a little known but key component of WombGut. While Chance really makes me want to jump and break windows when I listen to "No Problem," he just can't compare to the unbridled joyful, full-body groove that has been known to occur when people listen to Paak's "Am I Wrong."  This is known.
• EBf.  Expert Bloviating factor.  This stat takes "expert" opinions and ratings into account. AllMusic critic scores, with the number of reviews in parens: Ballerini: 80 (1); Chainsmokers: 70 (1); Chance: 86 (20); Morris 75 (3); Paak: 81 (13). Ha!  I'm right!  Chainsmokers blow! Metacritic somehow doesn't even know that Kelsea Ballerini, Chainsmokers, or Maren Morris exist, which is odd, but Paak gets and 85 based on 18 critics and Chance gets a 90 based on 20 critics.  As is obvious from these results, a lot of critics wanted to talk about Paak and Chance, but Chance is the clear and obvious winner here.
• PPRN.  The most important of all New Artist Musicball statistics, the all important Personal Preference Right Now.  This is measured with 100% subjectiveness, based on my thoughts after listening to this music for a few days.  The following ranking is in opposite order of my enjoyment:
• Kelsea Ballerini.  Without a doubt the worst of the bunch.  Could not be any more predictably bad.  "Yeah Boy" is this terrible banjo and electro combo full of country love tropes (its just tropes about boys in jeans and ballcaps instead of girls in daisy dukes and bare feet).  "Peter Pan" is, shockingly, about her boy who's just a lost boy and won't grow up, over some generic power chords.  "Dibs" is, shockingly, about her making claim to her boy, and sounds so much like "Yeah Boy" I'm confused.  And when she names all the pieces of him that she is calling dibs on, I need to vomit.
• The Chainsmokers.  From everything I've read about these guys, they are unpleasant human beings and douches anyway, but on top of that, their music is terrible generic EDM.  Now, I'm well aware that they are insanely popular and you'll hear them on every pop radio station all day long, but it doesn't change the fact that this music sucks.  For "Closer" to have 763 million streams is just an affront to humanity.
• Maren Morris.  If it weren't for "My Church," I'd peg her considerably lower, but the fact is that it is a great song.  Otherwise, don't care for it.
• Anderson.Paak.  Bad mid-name punctuation aside, this guy makes some really fun tunes. As I mentioned before, "Am I Wrong" is a spacy funk jam that requires a groove and serious dancing.  "Come Down" is on some James Brown action.  Spotify also has a live album thing from some SXSW show in Austin that shows how good this guy can be live as well as in studio.  This guy is good.
• Chance the Rapper.  Dude is legit.  Acid Rap had some great stuff on it, and Coloring Book is even better.  As I mentioned when I reviewed it, Coloring Book is an interesting, somewhat difficult album because most of it is not an easy surface listen.  And it is so gospel influenced that it just doesn't sound like any other popular rap right now.  You've got to dig into the lyrics and do more than just bounce the beats.  But if "No Problem" (see below) doesn't make you want to bounce along, then you are missing out.

  

I think that both my preference and the critical focus are on Chance and he'll take home the Grammy (despite the fact that he is not freaking eligible for the damn category).

Predicting ACL 2017: LiveNation Bands (and an update on my gut intuition bands)

Time for some of my favorite times of the year with this blog, spending loads of wasted time studying websites, tour calendars, and making spreadsheets to see if I can guess who is going to come to ACL.

To recap my process last year, my original gut instinct band guesses in January went 50%, which is honestly better than I ever expected, with Mumford and Radiohead coming true and Coldplay and Dave Matthews being whiffs.  For my final predictions, I got three of the top four right (ended up psyching myself out of my prediction for Mumford), and I got 5 of 9 right out of the top nine I picked, as well as a bunch right in the lower level predictions.  Not to say I'm perfect at this, but I do think that some of the cogitating and research pays off with some predictions.

So far, we have announced lineups from Coachella and Bonnaroo, and then some lesser ones like Shaky Knees and Governor's Ball, so I'm starting to get all excited and curious to know what is coming. I'm well aware that we are months away from an announcement (May 5 for both 2015 and 2016).  In the past, I felt like we had to wait for Lolla as the best guide for what ACL would look like, but now that C3 also books Bonnaroo, we'll have some information right now that we normally wouldn't, and that will be supplemented later with the Lolla news.  

I have talked before about the attributes that I look at when thinking about who will come, but in this entry, I'm just going to look back at the original gut instinct predictions I made and then go over the bands that are affiliated to LiveNation.

Gut Intuition:
I already kind of did this post, with my initial way too early prediction post.  However, I think that at least one of those bands I made a gut call on is already out of the running, which is too bad.

• Green Day. This WAS my most solid guess originally, but now they are slated to come to Austin on tour in early September, so there is no way they'll also come for two weekends of ACL a few weeks later.  Too bad, although I plan on buying tickets to go see the tour show. 
• Metallica. Mainly, I just want them to come so badly that I'm adding them here. The only proof of anything I have here is that they just put out their new (awesome) album and are touring behind it, although no tour dates are announced beyond recent shows they just finished overseas.  Also, they played Lolla two years ago without playing ACL, and now owe this to me.  But now, as I have been researching the other Lolla shows (more to come on that soon, I see that they are playing the South American Lolla shows.  So good chance, I think, that they'll spill over to me at ACL!
• Daft Punk. I think they are the guess every single year forever. Apparently ACL needs at least half of the bands to be EDM, so these guys would fit. SO MANY SMOKIN' HOT RUMORS! Criminy, I thought I wasted a lot of time on musical junk, but that article says that someone spent the time to apparently decode the numbers playing in some YouTube snippet video to determine the cities where the band will (likely not) play.  People be crazy, yo.  But I'm guessing that they get signed up to do both Lolla and ACL and the internet freaks out.
• Steve Aoki. Here is what I said before: "I don't know squat about this dude, except an article I just read about him in Rolling Stone and how his dad started Benihana and he is insanely popular for making EDM stuff and being generally happy."  Nothing changed since then, but now I'm thinking that this Marshmallo guy, or maybe DJ Snake will take the other major EDM slot?
• Red Hot Chili Peppers. Feeling pretty confident about this one now that they've been announced as a headliner for Bonnaroo and they played Lollapalooza last year and they are playing Lolla Paris.
• Paul Simon. Feeling less confident about this one.   I'd still love for it to happen, but I see no strong indicators out there that he'd be likely.  He's not touring, his album came out last year, just don't see any reasoning to support it now.

LiveNation Bands:

After Live Nation purchased a majority stake in C3, I brought up the idea that maybe we could get some of the Live Nation megastars as headliners for the Fest.  I was going to drop this as a section in this blog posting, just because none of these people ever actually show up at ACL, but now McCartney played Lolla two years ago and U2 is booked for Bonnaroo, so we have some real precedence for this happening.

The LiveNation website says they now manage 350 artists, so who freaking actually knows who all might be up for this.  I can't find the part of their website that previously listed their "Stable of Global Icons," which I suspect means that they've outgrown the ability to list just a few artists when they have hundreds in their pocket.  Hell, even just a listing of all the companies they fully or partially now own is staggeringly long.  Their 2015 annual report lists U2, Fleetwood Mac, AC/DC, One Direction, Maroon 5, and Luke Bryan, while this promo page also adds in Aerosmith, Arcade Fire, Jimmy Buffett, Kings of Leon, Weezer, Jay-Z, and Nickelback.  This interesting article also notes that a lot of the folks tied up in the Tidal streaming service are likewise in on the LiveNation deal, including some not mentioned already like Jack White, Rihanna, Kanye West, Coldplay, Jason Aldean, Beyonce, Usher, Nicki Minaj, and Madonna.  I can't find a definitive list of all 350 they manage/promote, but let's just go with the group named thus far.

Previously, I have left out some folks in this prediction list because they just don't match up to the ACL vibe.  I say that, although who the hell even knows what the ACL vibe is anymore after the year with Weeknd, Deadmau5 and Drake as headliners?  And with Beyonce grabbing a headlining spot for this year, stranger things have happened, so maybe Rihanna or Beyonce could show up at ACL.

• U2.  Oh man, I'm preemptively very excited about this real possibility.  Last year I said it was doubtful, but this year they have already announced a tour that comes through Texas but not to Austin or San Antonio, that tour ends on August 1, and they are booked (by C3) to play Bonnaroo.  They'll also be releasing a new album sooner or later this year, so everything looks perfect for them to be here.  Really hope so!
• Fleetwood Mac.  I would have said that this one feels pretty good, but their website says they have no touring on tap.  Also, they've never played any of the big four Festivals since 2011, so there is really no precedence for them showing up here.  But that would be a pretty cool, classic music get.  In fact, these might be the headliners of the next Desert Trip, now that I think about it.  Probably not.
• AC/DC.  Played Coach in 2015, so some precedence, but the band has no tour dates on their website, and they seem to be in shambles after having to bring in Axl Rose for the last tour, guitarist quitting for health reasons, and then the bassist announcing his retirement.  No.
• One Direction.  No.  Unless the fest is going through a serious change, no way that this happens.
• Maroon 5.  No.  Same as above.
• Luke Bryan.  No.  Similarly to the above two pop groups, but slightly different because while ACL has shown some love for country-centric groups (including the awesome Sunday lineup last year), but I still don't think they are going to bring on a generically Nashville powerhouse guy like this.  Don't see a desire from this crowd.
• Aerosmith.  I mean, they are still well recognized as a big time band and all, but I still don't see them as an act that I would expect to show up in Austin.  They haven't played one of the big four since I've been tracking (2011).  Their current tour is all Europe and ends in July.  But, Steven Tyler said last year that they would do a big farewell tour in 2017, so I guess there is some possibility that they include a major festival date in that final hurrah?  Maybe, but I doubt it.
• Arcade Fire.  Here is one that is pretty interesting.  The band said previously that they may release a new album this spring.  They're a large enough band to be a headliner, although not the #1 headliner, more like a #4-6.  Their touring schedule includes only festivals in Europe - Primavera, Isle of Wights, Roskilde, etc. - and no normal concert dates. This "tour" is done by July, but I get the feeling that they could release the new album with a tour announcement and then jump in to do Lolla (Aug. 3-5) and ACL (Oct. 6).  Feel good about it.
• Jimmy Buffett.  No.  I'd love it, but this guy can sell out the biggest stadiums in the world in a heart beat with crazy parrot people, so I doubt he'd need to or want to mess with a festival.
• Kings of Leon.  The band just released a new album in October, which puts them in line to play a big tour and some festivals this coming year.  They last played ACL in 2013, so I think that is a big enough gap to be welcomed back.  Their weird website shows the end of the American leg of their current tour, and then some European dates before some festival shows in Florida and Europe, before that ends in July.  So, like Arcade Fire, I can see them adding Lolla in August and ACL in October to their lineup.  Feel good about this one too.
• Weezer.  They released a new album in March 2016 (White Album) and I don't see any news about a new album coming out this year.  However, they are touring this year, with some Canada dates and then several smaller festivals that end in mid-July. So, they've got the time to do Lolla and ACL.  They played ACL in 2012, and haven't played a big four since, so I guess it might be time, but I don't feel any real buzz that would make me expect this to happen.  Doubt it.
• Jay-Z.  No upcoming live shows listed.  Despite some kind of weak-looking rumors back in August, I don't see any news about a new album.  He also hasn't played a big four fest.  Doubt it.
• Nickelback.  Hahahahaha.  The fact that LiveNation hasn't scoured this name from their website is hilarious.  Is there a bigger musical punchline than Nickelback these days?  Maybe Milli Vanilli?  No.
• Jack White.  Sure, why not?  He was at ACL for 2012, and has previously come through as White Stripes and Raconteurs, and then has done other big 4 appearances since.  But I see no news of a new album or new project right now, and his website says no shows booked at the moment.  I seem to recall news that he was taking a hiatus?  No.
• Rihanna.  No.  Again, just so outside of the norm for this festival, I can't see it happening.  Also, she has no tour happening right now.  Although who knows, I would have said the same thing about the Weeknd previously, or Beyonce playing Coachella this year, so maybe things are changing...
• Kanye West.  Saint Pablo is old-ish, his tour ended on December 31, and so there are no real indications pointing to him being here.  Also, I wouldn't be excited anymore about seeing him, unless he committed to playing only his first two albums and not the more recently meandering blurg, so no.  No.
• Coldplay.  I was certain that they would play last year, as part of their big world tour and supporting their new album, but no such luck.  This year?  They are still out there touring on that 2016 album, with a bunch of Asian shows on tap in March/April, then more Europe from then to  mid-July, and then some more US shows from August 1 to October 8.  They could play Lolla on Saturday night, but are booked to be in Boston on Friday night and DC on Sunday night, so that looks doubtful AND they play Chicago anyway on Aug. 17.  Then while they don't play Dallas, Austin, or San Antonio on this tour, they have a Wednesday show in CA and then a Sunday show in CA, so it would be theoretically possible for them to shoehorn a trip to Austin to play Friday night, that seems unlikely.  But it could happen.  I'll give this one a weak maybe.
• Jason Aldean.  No, see Luke Bryan above.
• Beyonce.  Sincerely doubt this, even though she is playing Coachella.  It would be cool, I think, to see her, but she just doesn't match up to what we would expect from ACL.  Her tour ended in October, so she won't be travelling this year (except for Coach).
• Nicki Minaj.  Another I highly doubt.  Not that ACL doesn't support rappers, or even female rappers (shout out to LIZZO from last year!), but she hasn't released an album in a while and has no tour dates listed on her site.  She joked about a new album release in October 2016, but made clear it was just a joke.  No.
• Usher.  No.  Not ACL music at all, although again, with the Weeknd somehow being considered ACL tunes, what do I know?
• Madonna.  Every year, I manage to talk myself into this.  It would be so super rad to see her play her classics.  If she played "Crazy For You," you'll just have to forgive me if I cry the entire time thinking of what could have been in third grade, but when she plays "Into the Groove," I'mma be a-ight and I might dance myself into a heart attack. Oh, will she come here?  Sincerely doubt it.  No new music on tap, her last tour ended March 2016, and she's not one who plays the festivals.  So I'm just going to save myself the heartbreak this year and say No.

Confident potential picks moving on from this post:

1. Metallica
2. Red Hot Chili Peppers
3. Arcade Fire
4. Kings of Leon

2017 Grammy Nominations: Big Three

I know I'm way behind on this, as these were announced back in December, but it just dawned on me that I might have some listening to do to figure out who the people are nominated for things.  If you want to look back at my ravings in the past about how dumb the categories are, then please by all means go here.

Also, before discussing this year, let's see how I did last year on predicting these things:

• Record of the Year (which means an individual song): I picked the Weeknd, and was wrong (Mark Ronson/Bruno Mars)
• Album of the Year (which means an entire album): I picked Kendrick Lamar, and was wrong (Taylor Swift)
• Song of the Year (which again means an individual song, but the songwriting, apparently): I picked Taylor Swift, and was wrong (Ed Sheeran)
• Best New Artist (which is still BS, because Trainor is not eligible): I went with Courtney Barnett, and was wrong (Megan Trainor)
• Best Rock Performance: I said I like them all but guessed the Foo Fighters, and was wrong (Alabama Shakes)
• Best Rock Album: I said I would have picked Highly Suspect, but expected that the Grammy voters would take boring Muse AND WAS RIGHT!!!
• Best Alternative Album: I said Tame Impala, and was wrong (Alabama Shakes).

Y'all see how good I am?  I mean, one of seven, I am obviously the world's foremost authority on music and you should hang on every word I say.  

On to this year, and the top three categories first, I'll do a more in depth discussion of some other categories if I'm feeling spriggy.

Album Of The Year:

• 25 — Adele
• Lemonade — Beyoncé
• Purpose — Justin Bieber
• Views — Drake
• A Sailor's Guide To Earth — Sturgill Simpson

Aw, man.  I mean, obviously I'm going to pick the album that I thought was the best one of the year, that excellent Sturgill Simpson disc.  Rare that you get touching lyrics about a son, great soul-flavored country rock tunes, PLUS a Nirvana cover.  As for who will win, I think its a face off between Adele and Beyonce.  Adele won armloads of Grammys in 2012, so you know the old white guys in charge over there love her.  But all of the year end lists loved Bey the most.  I kind of feel like they'll split this and RotY between the two of them to make everyone happy.  I'll say this one goes to Adele.

Record Of The Year:

• "Hello" — Adele
• "Formation" — Beyoncé
• "7 Years" — Lukas Graham
• "Work" — Rihanna Featuring Drake
• "Stressed Out" — Twenty One Pilots

Criminy.  I'd say that three of these songs make me sad about the state of musical discourse in modern times.  "7 Years" was kind of clever for a sec, but after the third listen or so I wanted to fight a seven year old.  "Work" is soooo annoying.  My prior review of it was as follows: "which sounds like her just saying the word "work" three hundred times before she forgets how to pronounce those letters and just starts smearing the words into werwerwerwerwerwer as Drake mumbles."  I will continue to stand by that review.  And everything that 21 Pilots does makes me hate everyone.  This is mainly because of self-hatred here, because my son loves 21 Pilots, and every time I see that he has listened to "Ride" again it brings my failings as a father into sharp relief and I feel like I need to break his spirit and make him listen to old Tribe Called Quest and Led Zeppelin albums on repeat for the next two years.  So, if I'm down to Adele and Beyonce again, I have to think that this is Beyonce's year and she takes this one.

Song Of The Year:

• "Formation" — Beyoncé
• "Hello" — Adele
• "I Took A Pill In Ibiza" — Mike Posner
• "Love Yourself" — Justin Bieber
• "7 Years" — Lukas Graham

Lord have mercy.  Did the Grammy people not know anything in music this year except for the top of the pop charts?  Is this Bieber song even the most popular one from this year of ubiquitous Bieber singles?  I don't know and don't care, please don't give this turd a Grammy. Huh, I just went and listened to the Posner song, and did you know that it is actually a super boring acoustic track that sounds like Little Big Town trying to sound like Bieber singing a song about Calvin Harris' life?  All I've ever heard is the "Seeb Remix" that they play on the radio all the time.  Apparently the same is true for all of humanity, because this crap version has 22 million streams and the remix has 758 million.  Wait, you know what this sounds like?  That shitty Kid Rock song he did a few years back where he tried to sound like an earnest country guy.  Only God Knows Why?  Or was it the one with Sheryl Crow? Don't know, don't care, this song is not good.  So, shocker, we're back to Adele and Queen Bey, and I'll guess that this one goes to Bey.

More coming...