I first found Mitchum's spreadsheet through the Rock Critic Hivemind article that came out in 2014. I've talked about this article a lot. If I had all the time in the world, I'd love to make something similar every year, but thankfully he is a data nerd like me and just keeps on making it. I love him. Here is the 2017 spreadsheet.
Now, obviously, using this list goes for a more universal angle at critical love. This takes everyone's thoughts into account, including non-US sources. He's looking at shit like Rolling Stone, Paste, NME, Pitchfork, Consequence of Sound, Spin, and NPR but then he's also using stuff like "factmag.com" and "tinymixtapes.com" and "thelineofbestfit.com" so who the hell knows what is going on with some of those people. They could LOVE Norwegian elf flute bands or something. In fact, The Line of Best Fit named Stranger in the Alps, by Phoebe Bridgers, as their top album in 2017. So now I'm feeling less good about this data set...
So we may be getting data from sources that the ACL folks would never ever look to. The ACL booking folks may be looking at best of lists by some obscure blogger, or Austin-centric sources like The Chronicle, Waterloo Records, and the Statesman. I dunno. But I still think that getting the consensus picks for best of the year can shed some light on the potential lineup choices.
Here's a look at history: And I'm still sticking to just the top 30 in each year, just because I have to limit this and not entirely lose my eyesight or fire up carpal tunnel. Here is what I found:
With regard to the 2014 Top 30 Albums:
- Some top artists in the year end rankings got no big festival sets. Sharon Van Etten, Aphex Twin, and Sun Kill Moon were all among the top ten of the critical darling list, but none played the big 4 festivals in 2014/2015. Eight of the top 30 total artists had no show at any of the big 4 in either 2014 or 2015.
- In 2014, 10 of the top 30 2014 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals. So only 1/3, which isn't a real strong correlation.
- 5 of those 10 were booked for ACL, though, which is strong. (St. Vincent, Mac DeMarco, Spoon, Lana Del Rey, and Real Estate). ACL had the closest connection, as Lolla, Coach, and Roo each only had 3.
- The next year, in 2015, 18 of the top 30 2014 artists scored a big Four Festival slot - a much stronger connection. So maybe the critical love has to percolate a year before the artists can get booked to play a Fest.
- However, only two of those came to ACL (Sturgill and Run the Jewels), which is kind of crazy. The runaway winner for the Festival booking last year's top album artists was Cochella, with 14 of the 18 playing Coachella. That looks like a strong connection. Lolla had five and Roo had ten.
With regard to the 2015 Top 30 Albums:
- More of the top ten got shows, as only two (9th place Sleater-Kinney and 10th place Bjork) didn't have any big four festival dates in 2015 or 2016. Eleven total artists in the 2015 top 30 were blanked for big four festival dates in 2015/2016.
- In 2015, again, 10 of the top 30 2015 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.
- But if you looked forward, 7 of those 10 on the 2015 list were booked to ACL for 2015 (Tame Impala, Father John Misty, Vince Staples, Kurt Vile, Drake, Alabama Shakes, Chance the Rapper (Donnie Trumpet album)). It makes sense - ACL is the latest festival, so it has the time to look at the best music and trends of the year, unlike say Coachella that announced its new lineup right at the start of the year.
- In 2016, 16 of the top 30 2015 artists played a big four festival show. Slightly down from the year before, but over 50% is pretty strong.
- However, only one of those came to ACL for 2016 (Kendrick Lamar), which again shows a pretty weak connection here between last year's top albums being booked to be at this year's ACL. Instead, the C3 people are apparently going to slip out a crystal ball and predict who will be the best artists of 2017 before its even happened. Of the other fests, Coach had 8, Roo had 8, and Lolla had 4 top 2015 artists play their 2016 festival.
Now adding in the 2016 Top 30 Albums vs. the 2017 Big Four posters:
- Looking at just the top ten from the 2016 spreadsheet, only four of the top ten showed up at a big 4 Fest in 2016 - Solange and Angel Olsen at ACL and Radiohead and Bon Iver at Coachella.
- Top 30 in 2016, 13 of the top 30 had slots at the big four. Stronger than both of the prior years. If I were to guess, I'd bet that the Fests becoming more mainstream, and accepting things like Solange, makes it more likely to grow this number.
- ACL pulled a handful of these critical darlings last year: Solange (#3), Angel Olsen (#6), Chance the Rapper (#11), Danny Brown (#13), Car Seat Headrest (#19), and Skepta (#28). Six is a much stronger connection than the year before. Interesting. Coachella also had a strong tie as well, with seven. Lolla had 3, Roo had 3.
So, that shows a MUCH stronger connection between the 2016 top albums and the 2017 ACL schedule. Six versus one the year before. What does that mean for this year? Wait, before we get to that, let's scorecard this bitch. Last year, I guessed correctly that two of the 30 would be here (Angel Olsen and Car Seat Headrest), and correctly that 20 of the 30 wouldn't come. So 22/30 ain't half bad, right? But I also figured that Bon Inver, Nick Cave, Mitski, and Nicholas Jaar would show up (wrong) and that Solange, Chance, Danny Brown, and Skepta wouldn't come (wrong). Doesn't seem like that good of a guessing average now. But let's do it again anyway, right?
There were only two in the 2017 Best Albums List who already played ACL last year (Thundercat and Jay-Z), so maybe the ACL magic crystal ball ain't so strong after all. Crazy thing, in looking down this list of the top 30 albums in 2017 - WHO THE HELL ARE THESE PEOPLE?
There were only two in the 2017 Best Albums List who already played ACL last year (Thundercat and Jay-Z), so maybe the ACL magic crystal ball ain't so strong after all. Crazy thing, in looking down this list of the top 30 albums in 2017 - WHO THE HELL ARE THESE PEOPLE?
- Kendrick Lamar. Played ACL in 2013 and 2016, so it seems too quick for him to come back. Not much of a solo tour this year, will be done by early March and then plays the Hangout Fest in May. But the Championship Tour for lots of the Top Dawg Entertainment artists, including Lamar, SZA, Schoolboy Q, and Jay Rock, starts up in May and goes through June. One of those May dates is in Austin at the 360 amphitheater. So, my guess is no, with an Austin show a few months before the Fest and a recent appearance.
- SZA. Well, now I just said that SZA would be playing Austin with Kendrick in May, so you would think that my logic would hold the same here. She also played Austin last October, at Emo's. Playing Coachella, then all of these Championship shows, Firefly Festival, Panorama NYC Fest, and is done with all of the things I find listed by end of July. So she has time to show up on both Lolla and ACL posters. And she is buzzy, without a recent appearance at ACL. I'm thinking she takes the spot Solange had last year and takes everyone along on a weird R&B ride. Yes.
- Lorde. I previously said that she would show up here, in my post about LiveNation bands. Just as a by the way, she has Run the Jewels opening for her. Cool. Her current tour is done in early June as of now. Includes several festivals - All Points East, Primavera, Parklife. AND she played all three of the other major festival last year, so ACL is the only one that didn't get her last year. Still think this makes sense. Go with yes.
- Sampha. I literally have no clue what Sampha is. Could be a metal band, a soul singer, a rapper, a string quartet, a body-free consciousness that was uploaded to the cloud by the Black Mirror people and now makes dubstep doowop for the deaf. No clue. And yet the consensus is that it had the fourth best album of 2017. Interesting. It's a dude, a Brit singer. He's playing festivals in Europe in 2018. Nothing in the U.S. Going to go with no. See no buzz or reason for him to be here.
- St. Vincent. Her album cover is a problem for me - go to her website and anyone who might walk by at work thinks you have a peeper fetish for the lady business. So, her tour includes two February dates in Austin at ACL Live, which is exactly what The xx did last year before their appearance at ACL. BUT the difference is that the xx's shows were sold out, and it looks like there are still tickets available for these shows. So that doesn't sound like there is a clamoring for her to return in October. She plays Coachella, Hangout, Boston Calling, and some weird festivals in Europe, but is done by the end of August. So she technically could make it to ACL, but I'm going to guess no because she can't even sell out her own shows in town.
- LCD Soundsystem. I'm such a crotchety old man about these dudes now. I honestly don't see how or why they would come back to Austin after only one year away. They are playing several other fests - including South American Lollas - so they could be out there on the road. They'll be done boring audiences in person, by refusing to play their hits and depending on their depressing tunes, at the end of June, so they have the time to come to Austin. But No.
- Kelela. Like their buddy Sampha above - no clue what this is. The internet seems to indicate that she is a recent collaborator with Gorillaz. Handful of upcoming concerts all around the world, including Coachella, Governor's Ball, and a few foreign fests, so she is out there doing festival work. Uhhh, sure, why not? Her last show currently scheduled is in mid-September, so she could be here in October to fest it up.
- Vince Staples. I've been listening to Summertime '06 some more recently, and it is very much better than the Big Fish album. Staples is on the road right now, playing Dallas tonight, playing Coachella and some foreign fests. Huh, ACL was the only one of the Big Four he skipped in 2016. NORF NORF! But ACL was the only one of the four he played in 2015. Yeah, I guess we need some mid-tier rap guys to fill out the poster, so I'll go with a weak yes. Will revise as more information comes in.
- Jlin. I just tried this guy's album at the end of the year and am on the outside looking in here. Not even sure I understand what this website is saying. Playing festivals. But I don't see any real buzz or reason he would be in Austin. No.
- Perfume Genius. Big tour right now, with many shows in Australia including a few festival dates (although not the City Limits shows out in Australia or New Zealand). Comes back to the US to play Coachella, Boston Calling, Sasquatch, and others, including an Austin show on April 23. Honestly, this touring schedule looks weird - it is all festivals except for that Emo's show. Emo's is booked by C3, I'll make a guess here that they are playing the random one-off show as some sort of agreement to come to ACL. Their last touring date is July 14, so they have the time to come to both Lolla and ACL. I'll say yes.
- The War on Drugs. I hope so. They haven't been here since 2012, but I think they are great. Touring schedule shows a bunch of fests (Coachella, Shaky Knees, Primavera, Panorama, among others) with a perfect gap for both Lolla and ACL. Good fit band for Austin and haven't been here in a long time. Gonna go with yes.
- Mount Eerie. I'm so old. When I have no clue about 3 artists in last year's top 11, I'm losing touch man. A few shows upcoming, done in March, no clue what this is. No.
- The National. Yep. Predicted this in my huge LiveNation post. They continue to have a large hole in their tour around both the Lolla dates and the ACL dates. Feels good.
- Fever Ray. How can you name your band this and be OK with everyone immediately thinking about Sugar Ray when they see your band name? Seems like an issue for me. Maybe no one else remembers Sugar Ray. I guess I barely do, I was conflating them with Smashmouth just now in my head. Anyway, this is a young lady who is apparently half of Swedish electronic duo The Knife. She is on tour right now, in Europe, with American dates in Spring and Summer. A few minor festival dates, with European fests sandwiching the days of Lolla. I know nothing about her style or whatever, I'm gonna go with no.
- King Krule. Yeah, this one feels legit to me. He is playing Emo's on April 10, so he is on C3's radar. Kind of hot shit right now, even though I don't get it at all. Tour ends in May. Playing Coachella. Feels right to me - I think this is the kind of dude who will end up on a lot of the festival posters and then you'll never hear of him again.
- Big Thief. These dudes feel like they've been buzzy for a while, but I guess I'm wrong because none of the Big Four has had them before this year. They look to start touring in March, mostly small venues, and then Coachella, Sasquatch, Boston Calling, and a big gap between May 25 and Sept. 24 (the last date on their calendar). So they have the time to play Lolla and ACL, and I think they do it. I'm predicting too many bands from this list, but whatever...
- Father John Misty. I've been listening to my saved albums all week, and some of his songs from I Love You, Honeybear popped up today, and it just washed over me again how amazingly well done his lyrics are. Bruno Mars and his Grammy win for songwriting can eat shit. He's currently on tour overseas, done with Pamorama in NYC in July. Have no reason to think he'd come to ACL this year, he was last here in 2015, and is still supporting that new album from last year. Waffling. I'll go with yes, he just seems like a good ACL band.
- Tyler, the Creator. His website is golfwang.com. Dude is weird, man. Current tour includes the South American Lollas, then Coachella, Sasquatch, Boston Calling, and a bunch of European fests. Done by mid-July, so I think he makes sense to show at both ACL and Lolla. They need another mid-tier rapper for the Danny Brown slot from last year. Yes.
- Slowdive. Currently touring behind their new album that sounds just like they did 20 years ago. They'll be in Austin for the Levitation Fest in April, so I think they don't come right back for another local fest. No.
- Kaitlyn Aurelia Smith. The internet calls this person a composer. Only two upcoming shows I could find, so I'm thinking this is not a touring performer. Who ever added this to their top albums of the year list is trying to damn hard. No.
- Migos. Oh man, screw these freaking guys. I just finished a new Rolling Stone article about them, right after writing about the new album. They are trash and still refuse to write or otherwise try on their rhymes. Playing a few fests - Coachella, Rolling Loud, Primavera, Panorama, so they are out there on the festival circuit. Hopeful ACL has better sense than to book these pricks. No.
- Julie Byrne. Never heard of this gal. Touring in support of someone named Steve Gunn, small venues. Done in mid-March. See no reason why she would be here...No.
- Bjork. Oh my sweet sweet Bjork. How I love your older music. How I am confounded and disappointed by your new "music." Playing a few smaller fests, but no real tour showing up on the web. Her new album is listed on this list of top albums, but I haven't heard a soul talk about it. Don't see any excitement over her being here, so I'll guess no.
- Courtney Barnett & Kurt Vile. Oh my sweet sweet Courtney Barnett. I'm actually kind of hacked off at the ACL people - we've never gotten Barnett here. All of the others in the big 4 have enjoyed some wry observations and ramen habit discussions, and we get jack shit. She's playing a few small festivals, including the C3 booked Shaky Knees. No real tour, just fests. I don't really see any reason for her to be here unless she fires out new music (which isn't predicted). No.
- Arca. No clue what this is. Two dates on this website, no reason to think this is coming to Austin. No.
- Moses Sumney. Tried this guy out at the end of the year, not my cup of tea. Playing Coachella, Bonnaroo, and Governors and a few other small fests. Plays right after Lolla in Chicago, so theoretically he could pull the Big Four quadleapfunktrimester move, but for now I'll guess no.
- Jane Weaver. Never heard of her. The only tour dates on her calendar are overseas. No.
- J Hus. No. His website shows nothing for live shows. I think he doesn't exist.
Criminy man. I think I'm doing this all wrong this year - these posts didn't feel like quite so much of a beating last time. I think I need to limit my thoughts and not go with the top 30 or whatever. Too many of these likely have zero chance of ever coming to Austin because they are European classical composers.
Guesses that survive this list:
SZA
Lorde
Kelela
Vince Staples
Perfume Genius
The War on Drugs
The National
King Krule
Big Thief
Father John Misty
Tyler, the Creator
No way those are all right. Just no way. I'll do more research and get back to you on this one.
No comments:
Post a Comment