Predicting ACL 2019: International Lollas

Bonjour!  Je suis Jack!  j'demande le possoin et la pomme du terre, sil vous plait!  I am an extremely international individual, as is obvious from my extremely tight recollection of the three years of French class I took like 30 years ago.  If you need someone to order you strawberries from a male waiter, I have your damn back, man.  
I frequently discuss the strong link between the Chicago Lollapalooza lineup and the ACL lineup.  Last year I did a whole thing about the foreign Lollas and City Limits festivals to see if they tracked the ACL lineup - the link is weak.  Also, it would appear that neither the Auckland nor Sydney City Limits festivals are actually happening this year.  With these foreign festivals, there is some commonality in the past, although it is more like 1 of the top 6 who will show up in Austin, not 4 or 5 of 6.  Still, time to take a look at the international Lollapaloozas to see if we could divine anything from those posters.

Lollapalooza now throws down in Berlin, Paris, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Stockholm.  And like I said before, the City Limits down under appear to not be happening this year.  So, what do we have for the top lines from those posters?  First, let's check the history:

2016 Lineups:

• Lolla Brazil, Argentina and Chile all had the same top 6 headliners: Eminem (no), Florence & the Machine (no), Jack U (no), Mumford & Sons (yes), Snoop Dogg (no), Noel Gallagher (no).  So only 1 of 6 match.
• Lolla Berlin: Radiohead (yes), Kings of Leon (no), Major Lazer (yes), Paul Kalkbrenner (no, wtf?), Phillip Poisel (no, wtf again?), New Order (no). 2 of 6 match.
• Auckland City Limits: Kendrick Lamar (yes), The National (no), Fat Freddys Drop (errr, no?), Modest Mouse (no), Girl Talk (no), Shapeshifter (no).  1 of 6.  WTF is Fat Freddy's Drop and what is it doing on the top line of a poster?  New Zealand people, man.

2017 Lineups:

• Lolla Brazil/Argentina/Chile: Metallica (no), The Strokes (no), The Weeknd (no), The xx (yes), The Chainsmokers (no), Flume (no). 1 of 6.
• Lolla Paris: Red Hot Chili Peppers (yes), The Weeknd (no), Imagine Dragons (no), Lana Del Rey (no), DJ Snake (no), London Grammar (no).  1 of 6.
• Lolla Berlin: Foo Fighters (no), Mumford & Sons (no), The xx (yes), Hardwell (no), Beatsteaks (no), Marteria (huh?  no).  1 of 6.
• Auckland City Limits: Was cancelled in 2017.

2018 Lineups:

• Lolla Brazil/Argentina/Chile: Pearl Jam (no), Red Hot Chili Peppers (no), Killers (no), Imagine Dragons (lol, no), Lana Del Rey (no), LCD Soundsystem (no).  Zero of 6. Interestingly, zero cross-over, although we had recently had The Killers and LCD and the Chilis.
• Lolla Paris: Depeche Mode (no), Gorillaz (no), Killers (no), Travis Scott (yes), Nekfeu (WTF?), Diplo (no).  1 of 6.
• Lolla Berlin: The Weeknd (no), Kraftwerk (lol, no), Imagine Dragons (nope), KIZ (?!?), The National (yes), David Guetta (no).  1 of 6 again.
• Auckland: Beck (no, dammit), Justice (yes), Future (no, thank God), Grace Jones (like the lady in that James Bond movie?), Phoenix (yes), Peking Duck (no).  Two of six, BUT Phoenix was only added to ACL late once Childish Gambino punked out.
• Sydney: Beck (no), Justice (yes), Future (no), Vance Joy (no), Phoenix (yes), Tash Sultana (no)  2 of 6 again.

What does that tell you?  People in other countries will allow headliners that would cause me to riot?  Yes, there are a few connections, but you aren't seeing a good, strong, locked-down connection here.  But let's check out the lineups for this year, and pick one that we can carry on as the headliner to match up:

• South America Lollas: Post Malone, Twenty One Pilots, Arctic Monkeys, Sam Smith, Kendrick Lamar, Lenny freaking Kravitz?
• Paris Lolla: Twenty One Pilots, Martin Garrix, The Strokes, Migos, Ben Harper and the Innocent Criminals, Orelsan.
• Berlin Lolla: Kings of Leon (?!? #1?), Swedish House Mafia, Twenty One Pilots, Kraftklub, Martin Garrix, something unannounced TBD
• Stockholm Lolla: Travis Scott, Lana Del Rey, Foo Fighters, Laleh, Chance the Rapper, Lil Uzi Vert.

So, crap.  That's like five instances of Twenty One Pilots.  Some of these for sure won't be here, as we've recently had Arctic Monkeys and Travis Scott.  But what about some of the rest of these?  

• Twenty One Pilots.  Not happening.  They will be here in Austin for a show at the Frank Erwin Center on June 23.  Last year I did an inspection of the history of bands playing both a show in Austin as well as the Fest, and while the data is not iron-clad conclusive, I can pretty easily say that none of the headliners play big touring shows in town this close to the Fest.  Although, their schedule leaves open a big gap where Chicago Lolla could fit, and then they end by September 7, so they could easily be added to both of those.  I gotta go with no, just because of that June concert date, even though it sure feels like the right band to come back this year.
• Post Malone.  In case you never read it, Please go read this review from Jeff Weiss of the Washington Post.  "a rhinestone cowboy who looks like he crawled out of a primordial swamp of nacho cheese. Post Malone is a Halloween rental, a removable platinum grill, a Cubic Zirconium proposal on the jumbo screen of a last-place team."  So delicious.  And obviously, I'm not on board with him showing up here, but let's take a look.  Playing Bonnaroo and Firefly.  Played Lolla last year (to absolutely massive crowds).  Playing a handful of European festivals.  Tour is done by August 25.  So, he has the time to do it, has already played multiple C3-booked events.  Feels like a yes.
• Kendrick Lamar.  You have to love a website that lets you go look at a blank touring page.  With no tour happening, no music rumored (except maybe?), and an appearance here three years back, I'm gonna go with no.  If he puts out new music, we can revisit that.
• Migos.  I've mentioned many times before how much I hate these homophobic idiots, so I hope they won't be here.  They're playing a few minor festivals, nothing big, and no new music that I know of, so I'll go with a no.
• Foo Fighters.  Feels like these poor bastards have been on tour for years in support of that last album.  I figured they would be done by now, but nope, they're still cranking out tour dates right now.  Their schedule has a gap where Lolla Chicago falls, and then it ends at the end of September, leaving it wide open for the first two weekends of October.  Wow, their last ACL was in 2015?  Seems like it wasn't that long ago.  Based solely on that schedule, I'd go with yes, but I'm unsure if this would be an exciting pick this year.  Concrete and Gold came out in 2017.  And just as an aside, that first song on that album is still a bad ass, bite sized slice of classic rock happiness that is too fucking short - I just listened to it again, and when it kicks in at about 1:06, I want to explode.  This article makes the claim that they are going to take some time off before starting a new album, but that touring schedule seems to belie that assertion.  Huh.  That schedule is just too perfect, the way those gaps fall.  I'm torn, but for now I'm going to say no.  Another where a new album would change my thinking.
• Kings of Leon.  Another one with no new music, no real tour (only a few festival slots), and little excitement that I feel in my loins.  Which are the final decider in anything I decide.  Going no.
• Swedish House Mafia.  This might be the most annoying website.  I'm sure they are counting down to the release of their hype new album of sick beats and collaborations with Karyyyn and MaxCherry in 46 days.  Again, their published schedule leaves space for both Lolla and ACL, with the last show on there happening on Sept. 20.  These guys have some buzz, having just re-formed, play the EDM that all the kiddies want to hear, and have the time, so I'm going with yes.
• Chance the Rapper.  Just in my gut, going with a no.  It would be very weird for him to keep coming here every other year.  Just a few festival dates on his calendar.  But, he has a new album coming out in July.  Even with new music, I'm not feeling it.  Would seriously be weird for him to go 2015, 2017, and 2019 at ACL.  No.
• Lana Del Rey.  I feel like many of these artists are trolling me.  NONE of these people have any shows on the weekend of ACL.  JUST MAKE IT CLEAR THAT I CAN CROSS YOU OFF THE LIST!  No real tour right now, just a handful of festival dates that end in July.  Just going with the gut and saying no. 
• Lenny Kravitz.  Poor Lenny.  I want to imagine him just living some rasta vibrations on an island, smoking fat joints and counting his money while hanging out with his movie star daughter.  Not banging out three more versions of "Fly Away" (yeah yeah yeah yeah yeeeeeaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!) in South American countries.  Who knows, maybe he still loves it, but his new album was pretty actively bad, so I can't imagine he plans to do much more than a career revue set.  (Which I would love - Mama Said and Are You Gonna Go My Way are classics).  His touring schedule is just South America and European dates, with nothing in the States, that ends in July.  I guess I could see him coming here, and being one of the minor legacy acts on like line 4 of the poster, but until I learn more, I'm going with a no.
• The Strokes.  Please don't bring these slugs back again.  Their set a few years ago was so lame.  I couldn't tell if they even had a pulse.  No real tour right now, just six festival shows.  The last of those, though, is September 27 in California, which sets them up nicely to head to Texas for two weekends.  And they have a big gap between Paris and that Cali show when they could play Lolla Chicago.  So...  But is there any interest?  Do they have any new music?  Are they absolutely still just coasting off of Is This It?  Ugh, this article claims they are making a "global comeback" in 2019.  Sure sounds likely, doesn't it?  Will go with a reluctant yes.
• Sam Smith.  Although his voice is weapons-grade beautiful, and I'm still annoyed at my friends who turned down a chance for us to go see his ACL taping last year, I don't see this one.  He doesn't have a proper tour right now, just some festival dates that peter out in April.  No.

So, all of that in mind, it looks like the start of a truly disappointing festival lineup (for me, personally, I'm sure y'all love these three groups): Swedish House Mafia, Post Malone, The Strokes.  I feel really solid about the SHM pick, and then medium solid about the other two.  With 21 Pilots and Foo Fighters as ones that sure are tugging on my brain but don't feel correct.