Monday, February 20, 2017

Predicting ACL 2017: Groups Making the Festival Rounds This Year

This post is made INFINITELY more simple this year because of Rob Mitchum and his spreadsheet detailing festival bands.  I am such a nerd for good data, and this guy just rubs me in all the right places.  So, where last year I had to go hunt down all of the posters for all of the festivals (which are multiplying like tribbles) and then compare those by hand, this year, I have his handy dandy spreadsheet to use.

His spreadsheet shows a ranking, which apparently takes the number of festivals and their average position on the poster to create a rank.  So, for example, Tool, Beyonce, Kendrick, Radiohead, and U2 are all ranked #1 as of right now, I guess because they are all #1's on a good poster.  The spreadsheet also shows a count of the number of festivals that each group/person will be doing this year, and that is the data I want today.

I had to still do some of this post by hand because he hadn't yet updated with some of the new festivals, but then when I came back to it two weeks later, he's updated.  What a guy!

But anyway, the thought behind this post is that there are always a few artists who end up playing any and every festival all over the place each year.  I'm thinking about someone like LCD Soundsystem in 2016, Drake in 2015, Outkast in 2014, etc.  So, with Mitchum's spreadsheet in hand, here are some thoughts about who would be those bands.  None of these look like headliner material, so I'm not seeing any of these that will be top line, these are more like lines 2 to 5 type people (and some are more like line 10).
  • Chance the Rapper.  On at least 7 festivals that I looked at (including C3 booked Bonnaroo, Hangout, Boston Calling, Sasquatch, Governor's, Firefly), so maybe the most exposed of anyone I see.  But he's the headliner for minor little things like JMBLYA, happening in Austin on May 6, which makes it seem very unlikely that he would be coming back to Austin in the fall or that he would be considered a headliner type talent.  No tour right now, just festivals.  He was at ACL in 2015, further reducing the likelihood that he should come right back.  I'm going to say no.
  • Car Seat Headrest.  The next most named one that I see.  He's touring Europe this spring, and then back here for Coachella, Shaky Knees (c3-booked), Boston Calling, Sasquatch, Governor's, Bonnaroo, and others.  I already mentioned him as likely because of his critically acclaimed album last year.  I think you lock this one down.
  • Frank Ocean.  Headlining a bunch of smaller fests like Sasquatch, Panorama, and Hangout. As I noted previously in the post about last year's acclaimed albums, I don't see him coming to ACL.  That would change if he gets added to Lolla's lineup.  no.
  • The xx.  I never knew about this band previously, but Twitter acted like John and George had been resurrected and the Beatles were putting out a new double-disc from the way they reacted to the new album from these guys.  I tried it out a few times and I actually kind of dig it.  They are coming to Coachella and Bonnaroo and Lolla Berlin, as well as a bunch of smaller ones. The problem with them and ACL is that they are playing the Moody Theatre two nights in a row in May, which certainly indicates that they won't be back for another appearance in October.  I was going to say these guys were a lock for ACL, but I have to say I don't see it now because of those two shows in May.
  • Francis & the Lights.  I have no clue who this is.  Top song is chill electro with Bon Iver.  But they're playing Coachella, Boston Calling, Governor's, Bonnaroo, Firefly, something called Electric Forest, and something called Sloss Fest.  So they're making the rounds.  I have no clue, the band doesn't appear to really be on tour, just playing festivals, but I'll just say yes.
  • Mondo Cozmo.  Seriously have zero clue who or what this one is.  Ah, but I've heard his/their top song, "Shine" that sounds kind of like Dylan made a record with the Strumbellas.  Playing Shaky Knees (c3), Hangout, Governor's, and Foreskin Fest ( :) ) for eight total on this spreadsheet.  Feels pretty good on this one, although I won't say for sure until I see that he is doing Lolla.  For now I'll just go ahead and say yes.
  • Lorde.  Yeah, weird that she is all over the festival circuit with no new album out yet, but you have to imagine that she has one coming in the next month or two, right?  Coachella, Jazz Fest, Governor's, Bonnaroo, all big deal places.  She also just got tagged to headline the Free Press Fest in Houston.  I'm going to guess that she continues that with an appearance in Austin in the fall.  Yes.
  • Marshmallo.  There will come a day when we all look back on this era and roll our eyes and how moronic this all is.  Between the DeadMau5 helmet, and the Daft Punk robots, and then this doofus who has a huge marshmallow with a face on his melon, we're all heading to oblivion one dope bass drop at a time.  This dude is playing a bunch of international festivals, but also the South American Lollas, Coachella, Hangout, Governor's, Bonnarro, Lolla Paris, and Lolla Berlin.  This is happening.  Yes.
  • The Head & the Heart.  They last played ACL in 2014 (when they played all four of the big four), and are signed up for Roo and Coach this year (as well as One Big Holiday, Hangout, Sasquatch, Governor's, and Lolla Berlin).  Lock it in.
  • Strumbellas are playing 6 of these fests, so they're all over the place, but they were at ACL last year so no.  Same with Cage the Elephant and Flume - they were just here...
  • The Shins.  Odd, because I haven't seen anything new from them in a while (2012 is the last album I see), but they are listed as playing five fests in 2017, so maybe they are just about to put out a new album and this year will be their big fest fest.  Their website says no tour or events on the calendar.  But I dig them and they are the kind of sound that ACL traditionally entertains, so lets say yes.
  • Others that just feel right, despite me not knowing much about their touring schedule (with the number of fests listed behind them):
    • Warpaint (4)
    • Future Islands (3)
    • Glass Animals (4)
    • Bishop Briggs (5)
    • Rainbow Kitten Surprise (4)

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