Predicting ACL 2020: The International Lollapaloozas

Bonjour!  Je suis Jack!  j'demande le possoin et la pomme du terre, sil vous plait!  I am an extremely international individual, as is obvious from my extremely tight recollection of the three years of French class I took like 30 years ago.  If you need someone to order you strawberries from a male waiter, or ask the time, I have your damn back, man.  However, if you need something super basic, like a bathroom, then you are out of luck with me by your side.  J'suis desole.

I had a weird realization a year ago when we went to Italy for a vacation - Italian is a language that I literally know nothing of.  I knew, like, grazie! and prego!, and stupid shit like BELLISSIMO!!! or "Ey, GABAGOOL give me some gravy for this prozzzzyute, ma!"  But I feel like a lot of other languages seep into your mind over time, but Italian is just not one of those for me.  We got there and I was just totally screwed.  Didn't know how to ask for water, or bathroom, or "how much?"  Weird.  Anyway, you didn't come here to learn about my weird language hangups.  You came here for semi-plausible ACL predictions!

I frequently discuss the strong link between the Chicago Lollapalooza lineup and the ACL lineup.  So I have tried a few times to see about the foreign Lollas and foreign City Limits festivals to see if they tracked the ACL lineup - but - the link is weak.  Also, it would appear that neither the Auckland nor Sydney City Limits festivals exist anymore.  With these foreign festivals, there is some commonality in the past, although it is more like 1 of the top 6 who will show up in Austin, not 4 or 5 of 6.  Still, time to take a look at the international Lollapaloozas to see if we could divine anything from those posters.

Lollapalooza now throws down in Berlin, Paris, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Stockholm.  So, what do we have for the top lines from those posters?  First, let's check the history:

2016 Lineups:

• Lolla Brazil, Argentina and Chile all had the same top 6 headliners: Eminem (no), Florence & the Machine (no), Jack U (no), Mumford & Sons (yes), Snoop Dogg (no), Noel Gallagher (no).  So only 1 of 6 match.
• Lolla Berlin: Radiohead (yes), Kings of Leon (no), Major Lazer (yes), Paul Kalkbrenner (no, wtf?), Phillip Poisel (no, wtf again?), New Order (no). 2 of 6 match.
• Auckland City Limits: Kendrick Lamar (yes), The National (no), Fat Freddys Drop (errr, no?), Modest Mouse (no), Girl Talk (no), Shapeshifter (no).  1 of 6.  WTF is Fat Freddy's Drop and what is it doing on the top line of a poster?  New Zealand people, man.

2017 Lineups:

• Lolla Brazil/Argentina/Chile: Metallica (no), The Strokes (no), The Weeknd (no), The xx (yes), The Chainsmokers (no), Flume (no). 1 of 6.
• Lolla Paris: Red Hot Chili Peppers (yes), The Weeknd (no), Imagine Dragons (no), Lana Del Rey (no), DJ Snake (no), London Grammar (no).  1 of 6.
• Lolla Berlin: Foo Fighters (no), Mumford & Sons (no), The xx (yes), Hardwell (no), Beatsteaks (no), Marteria (huh?  no).  1 of 6.
• Auckland City Limits: Was cancelled in 2017.

2018 Lineups:

• Lolla Brazil/Argentina/Chile: Pearl Jam (no), Red Hot Chili Peppers (no), Killers (no), Imagine Dragons (lol, no), Lana Del Rey (no), LCD Soundsystem (no).  Zero of 6. Interestingly, zero cross-over, although we had recently had The Killers and LCD and the Chilis.
• Lolla Paris: Depeche Mode (no), Gorillaz (no), Killers (no), Travis Scott (yes), Nekfeu (WTF?), Diplo (no).  1 of 6.
• Lolla Berlin: The Weeknd (no), Kraftwerk (lol, no), Imagine Dragons (nope), KIZ (?!?), The National (yes), David Guetta (no).  1 of 6 again.
• Auckland: Beck (no, dammit), Justice (yes), Future (no, thank God), Grace Jones (like the lady in that James Bond movie?), Phoenix (yes), Peking Duck (no).  Two of six, BUT Phoenix was only added to ACL late once Childish Gambino punked out.
• Sydney: Beck (no), Justice (yes), Future (no), Vance Joy (no), Phoenix (yes), Tash Sultana (no)  2 of 6 again.

2019 Lineups:

• South America Lollas: Post Malone (no), Twenty One Pilots (no), Arctic Monkeys (2018), Sam Smith (no), Kendrick Lamar (no), Lenny Kravitz (no)
• Paris Lolla: Twenty One Pilots (no), Martin Garrix (no), The Strokes (no), Migos (no), Ben Harper and the Innocent Criminals (no), Orelsan (no).
• Berlin Lolla: Kings of Leon (no), Swedish House Mafia (no), Twenty One Pilots (no), Kraftklub (no), Martin Garrix (no)
• Stockholm Lolla: Travis Scott (2018), Lana Del Rey (no), Foo Fighters (no), Laleh (no), Chance the Rapper (no), Lil Uzi Vert (THERE IT IS!  The single one!).

What does that tell you?  People in other countries will allow headliners that would cause me to riot?  Yes, there are a few connections, but you aren't seeing a good, strong, locked-down connection here.  Last year literally had one, single, solitary matchup, and it was a guy who was super low down the ACL lineup.  So this is a very weak connection.  But let's check out the lineups for this year, and pick one that we can carry on as the headliner to match up:

• South America Lollas: Guns n Roses, Travis Scott, The Strokes, Lana Del Rey, Martin Garrix, Gwen Stefani.
• Paris Lolla: Billie Eilish, Pearl Jam, Khalid, Vampire Weekend, Vald, Burna Boy.
• Berlin Lolla: Rage Against the Machine, Miley Cyrus, Annenmaykantereit (WTF?!?!), Deichkind, DJ Snake, Apache 207.  How the hell is Run the Jewels on that lineup as #9?  They should definitely be above Alligatoah.  Germany, man...
• Stockholm Lolla: Pearl Jam, Kendrick Lamar, Post Malone, The Killers, Camila Cabello, Ellie Goulding.

Some of these for sure won't be here, as we've recently had GNR, Eilish, Khalid, and the Killers.  But what about some of the rest of these?  I'm just going to note that I finished this like a week ago, and blogger lost all of it, and so I've been slow to go back and re-do it all.  Dammit!

• Pearl Jam.  Still feeling this one.  Key facts: (1) tour goes from March 18 to July 23.  (2) That leaves time for both Lolla Chicago and ACL. (3) The tour does not go to Chicago. (4) Pearl Jam loves Chicago and the Cubbies. (5) There is no way they are skipping Chicago on their tour. (6) The tour does not go to Texas at all. (7) Houston,  San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin are the 4th, 7th, 9th, and 11th most populous cities in America. (8) There is no way the tour would just wholly skip Texas. (9) The new album Gigaton, comes out March 27. (10) I'd be fine with Pearl Jam being a headliner every single year for ACL.  As such, let it be resolved, that Pearl Jam will be at ACL this year.  Yes.
• Post Malone.  In case you never read it, Please go read this review from Jeff Weiss of the Washington Post.  "a rhinestone cowboy who looks like he crawled out of a primordial swamp of nacho cheese. Post Malone is a Halloween rental, a removable platinum grill, a Cubic Zirconium proposal on the jumbo screen of a last-place team."  So delicious.  He is playing Austin on March 10, and the show isn't sold out.  I don't think a March show blocks him from ACL, but the failure to sell out a show here seems a bad sign for him.  His tour ends on July 2, so he ostensibly has the time to come out, but I just don't see any reason (hopeful thinking on my part).  Going with my gut to say no.
• Kendrick Lamar.  His website lists only three shows, all of which appear to be festivals of some sort (and none of which are the Stockholm show?).  SO he doesn't appear to really be on tour.  But, there is new music rumoured (why did I spell that word that way, am I secretly British?), so he very well could be releasing a new album soon, then launching a tour.  For now, I don't see any reason to think he'd be on the lineup, but we'll see after the new album comes out.  no.
• Travis Scott.  Not actually on tour, just playing the south American Lollas and then Coachella.  I also think he's been here too recently, without any new and notable music, to merit another shot at Austin. no.
• Lana Del Rey.  Nope, her tour rolls right through both weekends, with shows on the West Coast throughout both.  And she might not even do those dates - this article says she had to cancel half her tour because of vocal issues.
• Martin Garrix.  I usually pick some random EDM guy to be a headliner for ACL, because I have no clue who is hip in this world and just have to randomly pick someone who pops to mind.  This guy has a few shows in Vegas, but otherwise is doing nothing in the US this year.  I don't see any reason to pick him as the token EDM guy.  no.
• Vampire Weekend.  LOCK IT IN.  Their calendar couldn't be more perfect - they're in Tulsa right before weekend one, then play New Orleans and Birmingham in between the two weekends, then have nothing on their schedule afterwards.  There is a huge glowing hole in their touring schedule that has ACL 2020! written in invisible ink.  Yes.
• Gwen Stefani.  I jmean, is there anyone who wants this?  I know she was married to the guy from Bush and then the dude from The Voice, but has she personally done anything since Love Angel Music Baby or that Target commercial?  She has a few shows at a Vegas residency, and then she plays Rodeo Houston (what the actual fuck?  At the rodeo teaching people to spell Bananas?), but I see no reason for her to be in Austin in the fall.  no.
• Camila Cabello.  This may have been my least favorite thing at ACL in the past few years.  Yes, even worse that Billie Eilish.  The only redeeming factor for this show was that I held my daughter up in the air for like 5 songs (of mounting pressure and pain) and not only were the people around us extremely cool to us about it, but to hear her little voice singing along was enough to warm this grinch's heart.  BUt I don't need her back again.  Her tour goes through Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Houston over the summer, and then ends in September, directly before the Fest, but I'm still going to give it a no.  I just don't sense any excitement for her - is anything on the new album a hit?
• The Strokes.  Please don't bring these slugs back again.  Their set a few years ago was so lame.  I couldn't tell if they even had a pulse.  They just released a new single, and a new album is on the way on April 10, so it may make sense, but I'd be disappointed for sure.  Their current tour seems less like an official tour and more like a few festivals and some random hopscotching back and forth between a few places.  I suspect that a real tour announcement would come after the album is released.  But, as of now, their tour stops in mid-July, then has another date in mid-August, leaving time for both Lolla and ACL.  So that feels like it could happen.  Soft yes.
• Rage Against the Machine.  I know we've already talked about them, but since that last post, they have announced an official tour (with Run the Jewels opening!!!) that has a funny run like the Pearl Jam one does.  Other than the El Paso show to start, no Texas dates, and the whole tour stops on Sept. 12 in Vienna.  Again, it doesn't seem normal for a major reunion tour to skip some of the most populous cities in the whole country (but go to like, East Troy Wisconsin and Buffalo, NY).  I fully expect that they'll announce ACL and then announce more dates on their tour as well.  To which I say hell yeah.

So, that looks like an amazing festival to me - Pearl Jam, Vampire Weekend, and Rage Against the Machine!  C'mon!  And even if The Strokes end up being on the bill as well, maybe the new album will be redeeming and it will be a more exciting show?  Crazier things have happened, right?  Maybe this year will be a good connection to the Internationals!  One can hope, right?