Yeah baby! I always think of Lollapalooza as the sister show to ACL. They get some things that we just saw. We get some things that they just saw. We're linked and its fun. I was very grateful though, that the link between them has been fraying more over the past few years, as their lineup seems to be consistently leaning more towards the pop stuff that I don't want to see.
I always fear that Festival life is about to pass me by and leave me the bitter old dude still listening to the few rock shows on tiny stages instead of trying new things. So far, I'm still pretty varied in my musical love, but I am definitely not the target audience of the 2022 Coachella lineup, and the majority of the 2022 Lollapalooza lineup leaves me unimpressed.
But still, I love this post. I love the guessing game and murder mystery sleuthing that comes with trying to figure things out. This is a fun game for me. AND remember that last year had Post Malone as the second top artist for Lolla (which was depressing), and we avoided him in Austin! Hooray!
As usual, in my opinion, the Lolla lineup is always the closest indicator of who is coming to ACL in any given year. Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups. In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows. But in some recent years, it isn't that close.
But still, I love this post. I love the guessing game and murder mystery sleuthing that comes with trying to figure things out. This is a fun game for me. AND remember that last year had Post Malone as the second top artist for Lolla (which was depressing), and we avoided him in Austin! Hooray!
Here is some old history - if you don't care about all of this, then just scan on down past the little charts. The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:
2012:
2014:
|
Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith (which almost got fully made up to us last year!)
Paul McCartney | no |
Metallica | no |
Florence & the Machine | yes |
Sam Smith | no |
Bassnectar | yes |
The Weeknd | yes |
Alt-J | yes |
Alabama Shakes | yes |
Of Monsters and Men | yes |
Then 2011, 2013, and last year (2018) show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:
2011:
Eminem | no |
Foo Fighters | no |
Coldplay | yes |
Muse | no |
My Morning Jacket | yes |
Deadmau5 | no |
A Perfect Circle | no |
Cee Lo Green | yes |
Damian Marley & Nas | yes |
2013:
The Cure | yes |
Mumford & Sons | no |
the Killers | no |
Nine Inch Nails | no |
Phoenix | yes |
the Postal Service | no |
Vampire Weekend | yes |
New Order | no |
Queens of the Stone Age | yes |
2018:
The Weeknd | no |
Bruno Mars | no |
Jack White | no |
Arctic Monkeys | yes |
Travis Scott | yes |
The National | yes |
Vampire Weekend | no |
Odesza | yes |
Logic | no |
2016 was a little stronger than those two years, but it is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, because Lolla went to four nights in 2019 in order to celebrate an anniversary. But you still get a 5 of 9 matchup (if you ask me), which is still a close link but not that strong:
Radiohead | yes |
Mumford & Sons | no |
Kendrick Lamar | no |
LCD Soundsystem | yes |
Major Lazer | yes |
Kygo | no |
Chris Stapleton | yes |
The Chainsmokers | no |
Flume | yes |
2017 had the weakest link ever, with only 3 of the top 9 shared between the two festivals.
Chance the Rapper | yes |
The Killers | yes |
Muse | no |
Arcade Fire | no |
The XX | yes |
Lorde | no |
Blink 182 | no |
DJ Snake | no |
Justice | no |
Some of the differences come because the two festivals apparently value people differently. For example, in 2018, Khalid was the #7 artist on the ACL poster, but only #11 on the Lolla poster. Camilla Cabello was #9 on the ACL poster but was all the way down at #24 on the Lolla poster (which is honestly weird). Chvches was #13 on ACL, but #15 for Lolla. Why are all of our bands worse in the eyes of Lolla? So you can't solely judge off of the top two lines of the poster, even if those are usually the most exciting things to see.
I didn't even do this post last year - I wasn't sure if ACL was even going to happen! Stupid COVID. But looking at the top artists from the two 2021 posters, it looks like we originally shared 3 of 9 (Miley Cyrus, DaBaby, and Megan thee Stallion), and then continued to share three once DaBaby was replaced with Tyler, the Creator. Pretty weak connection!
So, how likely are we to see the top nine on the Lolla poster for this year? Let's dig in.
- Metallica. Nope. I just don't believe that they'd be back to ACL just three years after their 2019 set here. I freaking loved seeing them play live again, but I just don't see any reason for them to already be back.
- Dua Lipa. I had a weird moment there where I kind of thought that she had been at the Fest last year - I think I get Dua Lipa and Doja Cat confused. I'm sure the fans of those two artists just rolled their eyes at me. Whatever. I'm old. I could see her coming to Austin, sure. Now that we have pop stuff at the Fest, she'd make sense. Disco pop party for all. Her current tour kicked off in February, and came through Houston and Dallas in mid-March. As of April she heads overseas, but then she has a gap from September 23 (Mexico) to November 2 (New Zealand). That pretty perfectly lines up for us, so I'm going to go with a YES for this one.
- J. Cole. I actually liked some of the stuff on his most recent album, so maybe I'll come around on the guy just in time to see him play a show. Who knows. Still not sure I'd peg him as a top three artist at one of the biggest fests in the world, but maybe I just don't know anything. His current "tour" is just six shows - but they are Governor's Ball, Bonnaroo, Rolling Loud, and Lolla. Sure feels like he might be just making the rounds to some big name Fests this year. I'm just remembering how I used to literally spreadsheet every artists that came to ACL to keep track of who had been here and when and it took me freaking a million hours to do. What a nerd! I can see this one happening. Not too surprising or exciting, just kind of could happen...
- Green Day. Hell yeah. I hope so! I've never gotten to see them play live. Now, I would much prefer that the one time I could see them play live would have been when they were young and vibrant and important, not now when their last album is a complete after-thought. But you take what you can get! I think their tour already came through Austin, with like Fall Out Boy and Weezer? The next long chunk of the tour will be in Europe after they play Shaky Knees. Then they come back to the States to play Lolla, Sean.Hear.Now, and Firefly. Now this is interesting - after the September 24 Firefly, they have an open calendar for about a month, but at the end of that month they play Austin for the F1 US Grand Prix race. Normally, I'd say hell no, they aren't going to have an immediate repeat show in Austin right after the two weekends of ACL. But I thought they made the perfect headliner for the Fest! Damn. I guess I'm going to say no, just because of the proximity issue there, but I'm bummed about that decision.
- Doja Cat. Nah, she was just here in 2021.
- Machine Gun Kelly. Same! Also, his show was super shitty! Nope.
- Lil Baby. Whelp, I literally just googled - Did Lil Baby get cancelled - I'm super on top of things. It was Da Baby who got cancelled, not Lil. Sorry, I'll try to keep my Babies straight. This fella isn't really on tour either, he's just doing a handful of festivals (including the Dreamville one with J. Cole...). The end of his shows is in August, so he certainly has the time to come and baby it up in October. Feels like it could be. If so, those are some weak top rap shows for the Fest.
- Kygo. Had to go look up last year's ACL lineup because I couldn't remember Rufus Du Sol's name. But wasn't he just here? Nope, apparently Kygo just played ACL in 2016, so six freaking years ago. Again, I'm very on top of it. Kygo did just play SXSW at the free stage in Waterloo Park. I bet it was lit. His current calendar shows that his last show is the Life is Beautiful fest on September 16 (but it also fails to list his Lolla show...). Yeah, sure, I guess he could be here. We need our usual electronic thing to come and confuse us old farts.
- Glass Animals. I'm sure I should remember who this is, but if they are who I think they are - the people who sing that horrific "Gooey" song - then I am going to be very sad to have them here. Their tour takes them through San Antonio in June, but no Austin show. THEY PLAY RED ROCKS TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW?!?!?! The tour ends in August, so they could show up. They were last here in 2017, so that is a sufficient gap between the last time they showed up. Mehhhhh, yeah, okay.
I'm super behind this year! I can't even blame work, I've just been slacking off on the prediction game. I probably have two or so other prediction posts to make, and then I'll need to finish up. We'll have the announcement in about a month!
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