I'm running out of time here. It feels like the world has just sped up to 2.5 times normal speed since about the start of March - people have stopped caring about the pandemic and so everything has just barreled forward at warp speed. Between work and kids and concerts and church and social stuff and other responsibilities, I'm getting crushed. All of that is a short explanation for why my prediction posts have been few and far between.
BUT - one of my prediction measurements keeps hitting me square in the eyes when I listen to KUTX as I drive around town, and that is because they have been playing a TON of deep cuts from Beck. Maybe it is all just happenstance, and it probably is, but it feels like I've heard random tracks every day from one of my favorite artists, and so that brought to mind my theory that the ACL people hand off an early teaser of the lineup to local radio stations. The radio stations then start playing those bands/artists early, so that the ACL people remind the masses about good songs from the bands they are about to announce, which hypes the fans, makes it seem like the ACL people are booking a "favorite," and the radio stations get to be like "oh, we've been playing that band forever, we know music, yo!"
A few years back, it popped into my head because I had noticed that the few radio stations I listen to had been playing the hell out of The National. Go check this post if you want to see my thoughts on it then. To measure this (in an admittedly inexact way, I've checked out the KUTX playlist archive. As my initial example, I can see that they have been playing Beck at least once a day, and frequently twice a day, since April 3. Before that, you'd have a day or two skipped without a Beck song. BUT, honestly, when I look way back at Beck's playing on KUTX, it looks like he pretty much always gets played almost every day on the station. I guess he's a core artist and I'm just seeing shadows. Like, November 13 they played two Beck songs. Same on September 23. Hmmm.
I'll go ahead and run this exercise anyway. I'll collect a few days worth of recent playlists (4/18, 4/15, and 4/14, skipped days because they play weird playlists on the weekends), and then compare those to their playlists from two months prior. Let's see what we find out.
4/18: Arcade Fire 4x. Hovvdy 3x. Jack White 4x. Wet Leg 4x. Spoon. Toro Y Moi 3x. Robert Plant and Allison Krauss. Charley Crockett 3x. Florence and the Machine. Snail Mail.
4/15: Charlie Crockett. The Marias. Wet Leg. Hurray for the Riff Raff. Pixies. Mitski. Spoon. Arcade Fire. Toro Y Moi. Beach House. Hovvdy. Beach House. Sharon Van Etten. Black Keys. Jack White. Florence. Kurt Vile.
4/14: Riff Raff. Destroyer. Jack White. Spoon. Little Simz. Toro Y Moi. Arcade Fire. Father John Misty. Wet Leg. Florence. Black Keys. Soccer Mommy. Hovvdy. Kurt Vile. Charley Crockett. Big KRIT. Plant/Krauss. Big Thief. Fantastic Negrito. Van Etten. Pixies. Japanese Breakfast. Beach House. Orville Peck. Silk Sonic.
These are the artists who are getting a ton of play right now. What did they look like two months ago?
2/14: Silk Sonic x2. Pixies x3. Toro Y Moi x2. Japanese Breakfast x4. Plant/Krauss. Wet Leg x3. Hovvdy x2. Spoon x4. Big Thief x2. Sharon Van Etten. Little Simz. Father John Misty. Jack White (plus his bands) x3.
2/15: Wet Leg x5. Jack White et al x2. Riff Raff x2. Japanese x2. Sharon Van Etten x3. Beach House. Spoon x8. Silk Sonic x2. Toro Y Moi x3. Plant/Krauss. Big Thief x2. Kurt Vile. KRIT. Charley Crockett. Little Simz.
2/17: Riff Raff x8. Destroyer x2. Beach House x2. Spoon x5. Kurt Vile x2. Big Thief x2. Sharon Van Etten x4. Toro Y Moi x4. Plant/Krauss. Japanese Breakfast x2. Father John Misty x2. Wet Leg. Jack White et al. Silk Sonic. KRIT. Chief Cleopatra is listed a lot in all of these.
I mean, honestly, that data set sucks. Many artists are being played a lot right now, but they were also being played a ton two months ago. The only ones that really seem to have picked up are The Pixies, Charley Crockett, Arcade Fire, and Florence and the Machine. Man, Spoon gets played a lot on KUTX!
Might mean nothing, but let's just go ahead and dig into some of these artists for the entertainment value.
- Beck. He's heading over to Europe in early June and then comes back to the U.S. for one show near San Francisco at the end of July. No new music right now, and his last album was 2019. Meh, nothing in those data points makes this feel like its legit. Maybe I just have confirmation bias and want to see him play again...
- Hovvdy. They're bopping around the country right now, and the last show on their tour is at Antone's right here in Austin on June 18. Show is sold out, though, so there is some appetite for them. I thought they were a local band, but Spotify says they are from NYC. I guess my guess is no, not with a June show.
- Jack White. But, then, what about a May show? The White One is playing the new Moody Center on May 25. He's playing the Ohana Fest the weekend before ACL weekend one, and then has nothing else on the tour. He's also just released one album and about to release a second one. So it would make sense to support the new music with a Fest spot, but it feels like he's also be on the Lolla lineup for that to be true. So I'm gonna go with no.
- Wet Leg. Gross band name. I really like the new album, but every time I think of their band name I think of pee and moist jeans and wet socks and nothing is good about any of those things. They're cruising around Europe right now, and then will be in Australia, before coming back to do Lollapalooza. They come through San Antonio and Dallas in late August but skip Austin. Right around the ACL dates, they're playing in Mexico, and although the have a California show on the Sunday night of weekend One, I'm feeling like this is a lock. Yes. They're hot stuff and were the darlings of SXSW this year, and pretty much if anyone is playing Mexico during and around the ACL dates, I think they are on the poster.
- Spoon. Their tour ends in Portland just before ACL, so it seems to leave them room for a homecoming set at the Fest. I love the new album, so I'd be in for another show from them. Not much to go on there, but I'll just believe in positivity and say Yes.
- Toro Y Moi. I had never given this dude a chance, but you know what? He's kinda rad. Sounds a little like Beck! Like, "Deja Vu" could easily be an old Beck track. Cool. Although, then "Girl Like You" sounds like some autotuned trash, so I need to slow my roll. BTW, his website is awesomely lame and lo-fi. Love it. But, he's playing shows in Europe through both weekends of ACL, so that ends up being a hard No.
- Robert Plant and Allison Krauss. Nah. I think it would match up well with the ACL brand, but they are playing a show at the new Moody Amphitheater on September 4, which means they will almost certainly not be back in Austin a month later.
- Charley Crockett. He's playing Austin for Willie's July 4th thing at the soccer stadium, but then he has a big gap between September 16 and October 28, so he could bop by ACL and do another set. The only problem is that he was just here last year. I think with a July set and recent presence, I'm going with no.
- Florence and the Machine. I gotta say, they were one of my favorite headliners for ACL. A few years back I went for the one night they came to the second weekend, all alone, and it was a fabulous show. They're doing new music, and on tour, so that is positive. But, NOPE, as they are playing the new Moody Center on September 27. Damn. Was hoping they'd be a fun return to see.
- Arcade Fire. Not sure what is up with them. I know the new album is coming out soon, but Will Butler claimed to have quit the band after it was completed. Their website lists a show in London this weekend, but nothing else. So it sure doesn't seem like they're out there touring it up? I'd love to see them again, and have been liking the new songs. But nothing here points to them coming.
- Snail Mail. She plays the Moody Theater on May 2, so that would seem to show that she won't be back for the Fest. But her tour ends on Sept. 24, just right before the Fest. I've still never seen her, which I would really enjoy, but I can't see any good reason to predict it right now.
- Hurray for the Riff Raff. Playing Austin on May 21, and then the tour ends right before ACL. Why do so many tours do that? Like Snail Mail, I see no reason why she'd be here again.
- Destroyer. Playing the Mohawk on May 17, and is playing in Europe during ACL, so nope.
- Little Simz. The entire month of October is open on her calendar, in between a spot at the Firefly Festival in September and then shows in Europe in November. No Texas shows otherwise on her tour. Feels pretty good. I'll go with yes.
- Father John Misty. Nah, plays Moody Amphitheater on August 12.
- Black Keys. Nah, plays Moody Center on October 17.
- Soccer Mommy. Tour ends right before October, so she's got the time. I've been surprised that she has never been on the bill for ACL. In fact, it seems really weird that most of her peers have also not been on the poster (or if they have I'm old and forgetful). We need Soccer Mommy, Mitski, Japanese Breakfast, Snail Mail, Courtney Barnett, etc. immediately.
- Japanese Breakfast. Feels like probably not. She plays Portland, Oregon the Friday of Weekend One, and then is in Europe by the weekend after Weekend Two. Not feeling that. I do think she is playing an ACL taping somewhere in there though, even though that isn't on her tour schedule.
- Kurt Vile. Plays Moody Theater on May 22. Tour ends in September in Paris. Doesn't feel like he's hurry back for another Austin show.
- Big K.R.I.T. Playing Emo's on May 26. Tour ends in June. I see now reason to expect it.
- Beach House. Tour ends in September. Kind of insane how many festivals exist now. They're playing festivals in Omaha, Nebraska and Bentonville, Arkansas. What in the world? NO reason to expect they'll be here other than their tour ending, so I'll say no.
- Silk Sonic. This would be RAD. They're doing a residency in Vegas from March 23 to May 29, but no other tour dates are on their calendar. I guess I'll go with no.
- Fantastico Negrito. He plays some festival in Memphis the weekend before, called the Mempho Music Festival. Weird. Even with a clear calendar, I have no reason to expect he'd be here. Could happen, but I don't have any good intel.
- The Pixies. Huh. Their whole tour is in Europe until September 4, and then they take a two month break before they start back up in Japan. So they definitely have the time to play the Fest. Screw it, I know I've been lukewarm on most of the others who just have random gaps in their tour, but I'm going to say this is our old people show for the year. Yes.
- Sharon Van Etten. I've always had a weird sense of guilt for not liking Van Etten. I don't know why. I don't like a lot of artists, but for some reason I feel bad about it with her. Strange. Plays the Moody Amp on July 25, so that would be a nope.
- Chief Cleopatra. Never even heard of this, not sure why I'm digging into their touring schedule right now. I'm guessing she is from Austin? Her only show is at something called Haute Spot in Cedar Park, this weekend. Errr. No?
- Big Thief. Another band with a huge gap in their tour - this one goes from July 4 to November 21. So they could definitely do it, and their new album is good and interesting. Ehh, sure, I'll just throw a dart at this one.
- The Marias. Another band I am constantly rude about. Sorry. I'm just a damaged man. Weird thing, they play Lolla, and then have an opening for Weekend One, but then they are scheduled to play Stubb's for a rescheduled show (because of the ice storm this Feb.) on October 14 - Friday of Weekend Two. I guess that could just be one of the ACL Late Night shows, and they'll be here. Sure, let's go with it.
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