Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Predicting ACL 2023: Major Tours

I've been having some trouble motivating myself to start really digging in to the guessing games and sleuthing to figure out who I think will show up in the fall.  I think that is, in part, because it has been so very difficult to figure out who is going to be here.  I personally feel like I used to be able to figure out some big names early on, but with recent left-field picks like The Chicks, P!nk, George Strait, etc., I feel like I've lost my mojo.  But, I usually have fun digging in to this stuff, so let's give it a shot anyway.

With this post, I'll look at those artists who are supposed to have big tours this year, to see what their schedule looks like and if ACL can fit into those spots.  I'm using a few lists online of "anticipated" or whatever tours, so if you don't see your favorite in here, blame Google.  Or tell me what else is coming, and I'll dig in to that as well.

I also left out the more minor bands/artists - trying to think about headliner, or at least the big type people, so leaving out someone like Schoolboy Q or Angel Olsen.  Also, leaving out Zach Bryan or SZA or Paramore or others who just played ACL last year.

  • Shania Twain.  I know that I already talked about this in an earlier post, but I am feeling really solid about this one.  The ACL bookers have leaned in to the feminine at the top of the poster, and Shania matches the cowboy angle they have been going with recently as well (King George, Kacey, The Chicks, etc.).  She plays Dallas and Houston in July, but skips Austin and San Antonio.  She has a gap for the entire month of August (when she could play Lolla on 8/3 to 8/6), and then comes back to play San Antonio on October 12 and Fort Worth on October 13.  ACL is 10/6-10/8 and then 10/13 to 10/15, so she could easily play the Sunday of both weekends.  Definite YES.
  • Madonna.  DAMMIT!  If you have been reading this blog for a while, you know that she has been one of my wish list groups for ACL for a really long time.  I love me some classic Madonna.  And so when she was going to announce a big tour this morning, I was pumped to see a big ass gap in the October time frame, so that I could add her to the poster and get pumped for the Immaculate Collection classics.  But sadly, not going to happen.  Her tour swings through Austin to play the Moody Center on September 21, and there is no way that they'd bring her right back to play ACL two weeks later.  Also, she'll play London on Saturday of Weekend Two, so that is just not happening.  Sadness. No.
  • Bruce Springsteen.  Another that I always hope to see on the poster, but not happening.  He is playing Austin in February and so I don't see a way that he comes right back for the Fest.  Would be DOPE though!  Nope.
  • Taylor Swift.  And yet another annual pick for my wish list for the Fest.  Would be amazing.  But I just don't see it happening - for one because she can sell out any arena in a millisecond, but for two because she is booked during the Lolla weekend, and I don't see any way we would get her to ourselves here in Austin.  Would make much more sense for C3 to tie her up to a megadeal that would have her on both posters.  The dreamer inside of me sees that: (1) she played festivals last year (European fests like Mad Cool, Glastonbury, and Roskilde); and (2) her tour ends in August, so she'd have plenty of time to announce a new leg of the tour that included ACL.  But I don't buy it.  No.
  • Arctic Monkeys.  God I hope not.  Their last time at ACL was entirely underwhelming, much like the new album that is chock full of more boring lounge music.  Oh thank goodness, they play the Moody Center on September 15.  Phew.  Their tour ends on 10/1, so it is theoretically possible, but not with a show in Austin that close by.  No.
  • Big Thief.  I'd love to see them play music from that most recent album, but it looks like they'll be playing the ACL Live venue in February.  The tour ends in April, so theoretically they could come back.  And there have definitely been bands that have played pre-summer in Austin but still been back on the lineup, but I don't see it.  No.
  • Morgan Wallen.  My gut says no, right away.  I just don't see ACL giving a guy with his past a shot to headline - feels too progressive to allow a hard 'R' user to get a headlining slot.  Also, he's playing the Moody Center in May, so I'm going to stick with my gut and say no.
  • Olivia Rodrigo.  I have always been confused by the fact that she played the tiny Moody Ampitheater last year, when she easily could have sold out any venue in town.  My girls were sad to miss out as well.  So this would make up for that in spades.  BUT, whatever website I used to find tours was apparently full of duke, because she has no tour announced as of now.  Too bad.  No.
  • Rihanna.  Would be huge, but this is another one where she hasn't actually announced a tour yet.  So, for now, going to say negative.
  • Blink 182.  Another band that would make sense, but will be in Austin too close - July 7.  They'll also be in Europe during the Fest dates, so that is a NOPE.
  • Coldplay.  I feel like this is another annual wish list item that just never comes true.  Also, I was fascinated to learn the other day that one of my sisters hates this band.  Wild.  That's like hating pasta or something.  Anyway, they are cruising around South America and Europe all spring and summer, and then the dates end in mid-July.  They already played the US on this tour, including a May 2022 date in Dallas.  No other US dates are on the calendar, but they tweeted yesterday that "more dates coming soon."  So, it could make good sense that they are holding off on an announcement of both Lolla in August and ACL in October.  I'd dig it, but I also don't know if I really believe it.  Lukewarm.
  • Dead & Company.  Man, I bought two tickets to one of the dates in Boulder, right when these shows went on sale.  And I don't think I'm actually going to be there when I thought I would, which is lame-o-rama.  They are playing Jazz Fest, so they are up for festivals on this tour.  They play Dallas in May, but no other Texas spots.  The tour is done on July 16, so they definitely have time and space to announce Lolla and ACL together.  Again, though, not really feeling it.  I'd LOVE to get to see them play, but I don't feel like the masses would get excited for them to be a headliner, and it feels more like they just want to play out their string of final dates and move on with life.  Nah.
  • Depeche Mode.  Their tour hits San Antonio on April 2, but no other Texas dates.  Tour ends on August 11.  I really don't see a need to have them back again, but I guess I would have said that about the Cure when they came back pretty quickly after their first show.  My gut says no.
  • Elvis Costello.  They sold out of a VIP 10-Day Pass for his ten shows in NYC, starting in February, where that pass gave you access to all ten nights.  I like the guy, but ten shows in a row?  Criminy.  Super limited tour lineup announced so far - all in New England area and then Australia.  I'd imagine more dates are to come that would include the rest of the country, and he makes sense as a legacy act that they could tack at the bottom of the headliners to get some old people excited (and offset the pain of Bad Bunny or Calvin Harris or whatever).  Feels like it makes sense to me, even though I definitely need more info to give a real prediction.  Maybe.
  • Harry Styles?  It would make sense for him to do a proper tour after only playing four cities last time.  As of now, he has a few shows in California before he heads to Australia, Asia, and then Europe.  The tour appears to end in July, but I could imagine another leg being added that includes South America and more US dates.  Is Austin still excited to see him after he already played six nights here in 2022?  I'd love to see it, but I don't really get a good gut feeling from this one.  Likely no.
  • Lizzo.  I kind of hope not.  She's bad ass, but her last ACL show was a cluster.  It feels like she's been here too recently, and doesn't have big new releases to come back for.  Maybe that changes, but her tour ends in July and it feels like she'll just go into the studio then and come up with some new stuff.  Nah.
  • Metallica.  Another that I hope not.  I loved their show, but it feels too soon.  They are doing a really weird tour this year, where they play each city for two nights in a row, with entirely different sets each night, in the round.  Sounds like fun.  In August, they'll be in Dallas.  The poster for it was created by a madman though, as the dates are not listed chronologically.  Annoying.  But, I definitely note that there is a big fat gap in the poster from September 29 to November 3, leaving a massive spot for them to hit both weekends of ACL.  I suppose that leaves the possibility open, but my heart still says it would be too soon to have them back.  Nah.
  • Peter Gabriel.  Hmmm.  Would be fun - I love some classic PG tunes.  But as of now, his tour schedule is only listing European dates from May through June, and nothing in the US (or after June).  So, could be more clear once the full tour is announced.  For now, I'll just go with a maybe.
  • The Weeknd.  I would not be excited about this in the slightest.  Luckily for me, he is playing dates in South America during both weekends, so that looks like a not happening.
  • BlackPink.  Fascinating.  This band is one of the main three headliners of Coachella, and yet they are playing ACL Live in February?  Errr, that must be wrong.  But blackpinkmusic.com makes it look real, until I click on the buy tickets link and am redirected to Ticketmaster selling me tickets for S.C. Goodman.  Weird.  Must be a fake page?  When I click on BlackPinkLive.com instead, it shows that they already played seven dates in North America back in 2022, but have nothing new on the way.  And Ticketmaster only shows a few upcoming concerts in Abu Dhabi and London, without even mentioning Coachella. I have no clue what is real.  I guess for now I say no.
  • Ed Sheeran.  I'd feel meh about this announcement for sure.  He plays Dallas and Houston in May, to kick off his tour.  Tour ends with a September 23 show in California, without ever going overseas, but pretty well covering all of the States.  That end date leaves him time to hit up ACL before embarking on a European leg of the tour, so I suppose he could be the big pop get for this year?  I have no good intel that would be useful here, so Maybe.
  • Eminem.  I was on the sidelines of a kid's sporting event this last weekend, and a mom near me was positively electric with the idea that Eminem would be back at ACL in 2023.  Personally?  Ew.  His last time here was a deeply lame battle with lip synching, and he hasn't made any new music of any note in a long time.  And his website lists no upcoming events, so whatever website told me that he would be a big 2023 tour is dumb.
  • Janet Jackson.  That would have been a pretty fun one, but she is hitting the Moody Center on June 4, so I very much doubt that she'd swing right back up to Austin a few months later.  Nah.
  • Matchbox 20.  Their tour swings through Dallas and Houston in June, skipping both Austin and San Antonio.  It ends on August 6 in Chicago.  Which would be a perfect way for them to also pop on over to Lolla to play the 7th or 8th (if Lolla ever does that sort of thing, to book someone who is already playing in town at the same time?).  They could announce some more dates and include ACL in that new batch.  Not feeling it though.
  • Billy Joel with Stevie Nicks.  That is a pretty freaking cool matchup right there, you could hear the two of them together and solo?  Sounds awesome.  That tour includes an October 7 show in Baltimore, so I'd doubt that they would hurry down to Austin for either of the other two first weekend dates.  I guess they could show up second weekend only, but I'm going to assume that is a no.
  • Lynyrd Skynyrd with ZZ Top.  Another dope pairing, even if it would probably be sad to see ZZ Top without the full band.  Called the Sharp Dressed Simple Man Tour.  Ha!  Skynyrd is playing the San Antonio Rodeo in February, then this tour hits Fort Worth and Houston in July.  The shebang ends in mid-September in New Jersey, so they have the time and space to come back to Texas and jam at Zilker.  No reason to believe it is true though...
  • Muse.  I've given the new album a few spins and so far it is not good.  They play the Moody Center on February 28, so not very likely they'd come back (but possible!).  The tour ends in late July in Italy.  I have been repeatedly told that they put on a killer show, but I just don't feel any excitement about it today.  Going to go with a no here.
  • Zac Brown BandNope.  They have shows each night of both weekend one and two except for second weekend Sunday.  Not gonna happen.
  • The Judds.  I honestly don't know if I think this is headliner worthy, but I'm not a big Nashville guy.  The tour ends up being a pretty small one with less than 20 dates, and none in Texas.  Which, you know, could normally mean that they were saving Texas for their big festival moment.  But the last day of the tour is Feb. 25, and so this doesn't feel like one where they are just holding back the big announcement dates.  Feels more like a short tour for the end of a career.  No.
  • Beyonce.  Another where one website said that they were expecting an announcement, back in December, and nothing in out there for it.  Nah.
  • Rage Against the Machine.  Dammit.  I still really just want to speak this into existence.  But everything on the Internet is still saying that the tour is cancelled because of ZDLR's leg injury.  So sad.
Very few things in this list felt like locks, beyond Shania.  A "maybe" vibe on Coldplay, Elvis Costello, Peter Gabriel, and Ed Sheeran (which would lead to the whitest-ass lineup this side of the Catalina Wine Mixer).  And lots of pretty definite "no" feelings.  Hmmmm.  I need to go through the Coachella/Bonnaroo/etc. lineups and see if I see any other thoughts.

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