ACL 2016 Lineup Predictions: The Way Too Early Edition

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

With Coachella, Bonnaroo, and Jazz Fest lineups releasing recently, I'm starting to get all psyched up about the ACL lineup to be announced for the 2016 Festival. I'm well aware that we are months away from an announcement (May 5 last year).  I also know that the Lollapalooza lineup will be a much better guide than the other festivals that have been announced so far, but I'm excited and this is my blog, dammit.  So here is my Way Too Early edition of predictions.

I have talked before about the attributes that I look at when thinking about who will come, but in general terms, here is what I think about:

• Gut Intuition.
• LiveNation Bands.
• Groups who are doing the festival circuit this year (i.e. Outkast in 2014).
• The bands who are playing Lollapalooza.
• In 2014, Eminem, Outkast, Calvin Harris, Skrillex, Foster the People, Avett Brothers, and Lorde overlapped between Lollapalooza and Austin City Limits Fest, which is 7/9ths of the top three rows of the Lolla concert poster.
• This link was almost as strong in 2015, as ACL didn't get Paul McCartney, Metallica, or Sam Smith, but we still got Florence, the Weeknd, Bassnectar, Alt-J, Alabama Shakes, Of Monsters and Men, so that is 6 of 9 from the top of the poster. Although missing out on Metallica made it feel like we had a very different lineup.
• Buzz bands or those with new music out.
• Bands that C3 books/manages for their other venues.

Gut Intuition:

• Coldplay.  Big new album out.  Playing the Super Bowl.  Haven't come to ACL in years. Straddle the line between rock and EDM in a way that will be very appealing to the ACL crowd.  The only tour they have listed on their website goes through July and doesn't touch the U.S.  So it would be perfect in that they could play Lollapalooza (July 28-31) and ACL (Sept. 30 - Oct. 9).  I feel good about this prediction.
• Mumford & Sons.  I know I predicted them last year to no effect, but I still think they make sense for the ACL crowd.  They are playing Lolla Argentina, Lolla Chile, and Lolla Brazil in March, their tour swings through Texas in April but skips Austin and San Antonio, and like Coldplay, their tour ends in early July so that they would have the time to do both Lolla and ACL.  I feel less strong about this one, but it makes sense.
• Radiohead.  Radiohead will be touring in 2016, are playing some European festivals, and a "source" says they'll likely headline other music festivals this year.  I know that people predict Radiohead EVERY FREAKING YEAR and its always wrong, but this feels right?  Bring it on (just make sure to play the old music!)
• UPDATE - the day after I published this, I heard on the radio that Radiohead had been confirmed to headline Lollapalooza as well as play "other major North American festivals."  Damn, I'm good, yo.
• Dave Matthews Band.  Another band that is launching a big tour in 2016, with dates that end just before an ACL appearance could ostensibly happen.  However, they are booked on the Lolla dates, so maybe not?  Or maybe they are the difference maker between the two 'fests?  Another large band with a dedicated following who ought to sell tickets. Although there is no way all four of these bands would be named - there would be hashtags deriding that lineup in a heartbeat, even though I'd dig it. #ACLHeadlinersSoWhite

LiveNation Bands:

After Live Nation purchased a majority stake in C3, I brought up the idea that maybe we could get some of the Live Nation megastars as headliners for the Fest.  The LiveNation website lists the following as their "Stable of Global Icons": 

Alicia Keys; Jason Aldean; Journey; Kings of Leon; Lady Gaga; Madonna; Maroon 5; New Kids on The Block; Paul McCartney; Pharrell; Pitbull; U2.

So, with McCartney playing Lolla last year, there is some precedence for scoring one of these big time stars for the C3 managed Festivals.  Man, Madonna would be freaking so awesome.  I just doubt that most of these would even be up for coming - Keys, Aldean, NKOTB, Pharrell, Pitbull - those guys just don't match ACL at all.  But the others?

• Journey - already coming to Austin on May 18.  Doubt it.
• Kings of Leon - the only date on their website for future touring is the Firefly Music Festival (not C3) in Delaware in June.  According to Rolling Stone and NME, they are looking to release a new album in 2016.  They last played ACL Fest in 2013, so I could see a return if they end up doing their new album.  Maybe.
• Lady Gaga - I doubt it, just not a match I'd expect for the 'fest and she isn't on tour this year. Doubt it.
• Madonna - Dude.  Would be so freaking awesome.  She is currently on tour to support her 2015 album.  She hit San Antonio on Jan. 10 and Houston on Jan. 12, but no Dallas or Austin. Her tour breaks after March 20, so she has an opening that could fit in a bunch of the big festivals.  I still kind of doubt it, as she's never done the Fest circuit before, but it would be sweet!  Doubt it.
• Maroon 5 - I guess it could happen, although I wouldn't be that excited about it.  Their tour hits San Antonio on September 3, and has dates on Sept. 29, Oct. 1, Oct. 6, Oct. 8, and Oct. 9, so I kind of doubt they'd want to shoot down to Austin in between all of that to play one weekend of a festival where they wouldn't be a huge buzz. Doubt it.
• Paul McCartney.  I think it would be weird for him to play Lolla but not ACL and then come out to ACL the next year.  Doubt it.
• U2 - Oh man, come on.  Do this for me.  I would freaking LOVE to see U2 play ACL. Their website shows that the tour ended at the end of 2015, but at least one article references that they might be back to the US for more dates in 2016, there are no details.  I still doubt they'd sign up for a festival, they can sell out every arena on the planet in 30 seconds on their own. But I would freaking love it!  Doubt it.

Groups Making the Festival Rounds this Year:

Now, I know I could go all super deep on lineup cards and dig out who is playing the small time festivals around, but I think ACL is up in the upper echelon of festivals in America.  I think ACL is at the level of the other big three: Lollapalooza, Coachella, Bonnaroo, and maybe Governor's Ball.

• Florence and the Machine.  I doubt they'd come back, but they are playing Shaky Knees, Hangout, all of the Lolla South Americas (Chile, Argentina, and Brazil).  I'd dig seeing them again though!  Same with bands like Alabama Shakes, Beck, Walk the Moon, Leon Bridges, Run the Jewels, etc - they are playing fests in 2016 but I doubt they'd be back to ACL so soon.
• Ellie Goulding.  Count this one.  Playing Coachella, Bonnaroo, and Hangout.  New album and a lot of buzz.
• LCD Soundsystem.  I guess his "retirement" couldn't last more than a year or three. Playing Coachella and Bonnaroo, so it makes sense they'd keep doing the 'Fest rounds in October unless he needs to retire again before then.
• Jack U - The Skrillex/Diplo collaboration, playing the Lolla South America shows and Coachella.  Makes sense for one of the EDM headliners ACL apparently is required to bring every year.
• Calvin Harris - playing Coachella and Hangout.  Again, ACL apparently needs to have multiple big EDM people, even if I don't like it.  So long as they put this guy opposite Springsteen, then I'll allow it.
• My Morning Jacket.  Playing Shaky Knees, Jazz Fest, and Coachella.  New-ish album.
• J. Cole - playing Bonnaroo and Jazz Fest.  New-ish album and buzzy.
• Snoop Dogg - playing Coachella, Jazz Fest, and the Lolla SA shows.
• Death Cab for Cutie - Governor's Ball, Bonnaroo.
• Courtney Barnett - Hangout, Coachella, Governor's Ball, and should have come to ACL last year.  This makes sense.
• Jason Isbell - Hangout, Bonnaroo, getting a lot of buzz right now.
• Silversun Pickups - Coachella, Hangout, Shaky Knees.  Count this one.
• Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats - Cochella, Bonnaroo, Jazz Fest.  Count this one.
• Chris Stapleton - Coachella, Bonnaroo, major buzz.

The Bands Playing Lollapalooza This Year.  No schedule yet, so to be determined.  Not sure about the strength of the link, but this will definitely reflect some of the likely candidates for ACL Fest when it does come out.

Buzz Bands and Bands Putting Out New Music in 2016:

• Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats.  Playing other big fests, huge buzz, lock this prediction in.
• PWR BTTM.  I just heard them for the first time and dig what is going on.
• Sunflower Bean.  Has that trippy psych rock sound they'll want to support at ACL.
• Eagles of Death Metal.  Playing some other fests and (for all the wrong reasons) they have some press right now.
• Hinds.  The buzz band right now, makes total sense to me, even if I'm not personally feeling it.
• Chris Stapleton.  Piles of hype, up for Grammy.
• Jason Isbell.
• Sam Hunt.  Also up for a Grammy, and the ACL folks have liked bringing in hot country stars recently.
• Pusha T.  New album and some hype.  I'm looking forward to watching this.

Bands Playing C3 Venues This Year:
I ran though the lineups for Stubb's, Emos, the Parish, Austin Music Hall, Southside Ballroom in Dallas, and some others that C3 manages and came up with a long list of bands (Best Coast, Wavves, OAR, Dropkick Murphys, Elle King, Logic, Big Head Todd, They Might Be Giants, Yonder String Mountain Band, Dr. Dog, M83, Umphrey's McGee, Blue October, Lauryn Hill, Alessia Cara, G-Eazy, Lissie, Kid Cudi, Chainsmokers).  Of those, I think the following have a good chance, in order of likeliness:

• Logic - kick ass new album out, and his world tour ends in May, so he'd have time for both Lolla and ACL.
• M83 - playing Governor's Ball, Firefly, Sasquatch, and some other weird sounding festivals I have never heard of.  Has a month gap in his tour schedule when Lolla would happen and is done with the tour in mid-August to make time to ACL.  I think this one is likely.
• Elle King - played Lolla last year, doing Jazz Fest and a few smaller 'fests this year.
• Best Coast - I like them a lot and they are playing a few festivals, including Shaky Knees.
• Chainsmokers, Alessia Cara, and Lissie all seem like ones that will make the small type portion of the poster.  In fact, many of these wouldn't surprise me, Dr. Dog, Lauryn Hill, Yonder Mountain, Blue October...  I'd only be surprised if G-Eazy came back so soon.
• I'd love to see They Might Be Giants or Big Head Todd and the Monsters, but their tour schedules don't give any indication (over in April and June, respectively).

I wanted to check the roster of artists that C3 actually manages, but it looks like they keep it locked up and I'm not so sure about trying to request it from them.  But you'd think they would run their own folks out with frequency.

Wishful thinking:

• Springsteen
• Pearl Jam (I know they were just here, but I'd still do it again)
• Paul Simon (if he could play Graceland and Rhythm front to back, I might just die happy)
• Other Jazz Fest names like Stevie Wonder, Chilis, Van Morrison
• Green Day
• Kanye West - playing Governor's Ball and who knows?  We need a big rap name.  
• Maybe Ice Cube (Coachella) or an NWA reunion?
• The Wu Tang Clan came for FFF, so I doubt it, but who knows?
• Metallica!!!
• Dead & Co. would be sweet.  Maybe John Mayer could just come with them and play his own solo show too?