Predicting ACL 2018 - Bands Playing Lollapalooza Chicago 2018

This is one of my favorite posts of the year.  Well, it usually is, but the lineup at Lolla leaves me a little less than enthused about the possibilities of matching up to ACL.  The Weeknd saps my soul, man.  But still, I love this post.  I love the guessing game and murder mystery sleuthing that comes with trying to figure things out. This is a fun game for me.

As usual, in my opinion, the Lolla lineup is always the closest indicator of who is coming to ACL in any given year.  Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups.  In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows.  But in some recent years, it isn't that close (especially last year).

The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:

2012: Red Hot Chili Peppers yes Black Keys yes Black Sabbath no Jack White yes Florence & the Machine yes At the Drive In no Bassnectar yes Avicii yes The Shins yes 2014: Eminem yes Outkast yes Kings of Leon no Arctic Monkeys no Skrillex yes Calvin Harris yes Lorde yes The Avett Brothers yes Foster the People yes

Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith.

Paul McCartney	no
Metallica	no
Florence & the Machine	yes
Sam Smith	no
Bassnectar	yes
The Weeknd	yes
Alt-J	yes
Alabama Shakes	yes
Of Monsters and Men	yes

Then 2011 and 2013 show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:

2011:

Eminem	no
Foo Fighters	no
Coldplay	yes
Muse	no
My Morning Jacket	yes
Deadmau5	no
A Perfect Circle	no
Cee Lo Green	yes
Damian Marley & Nas	yes

2013:

The Cure	yes
Mumford & Sons	no
the Killers	no
Nine Inch Nails	no
Phoenix	yes
the Postal Service	no
Vampire Weekend	yes
New Order	no
Queens of the Stone Age	yes

2016 was a little stronger than those two years, but it is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, because Lolla went to four nights last year in order to celebrate an anniversary. But you still get a 5 of 9 matchup (if you ask me), which is still a close link but not that strong:

Radiohead	yes
Mumford & Sons	no
Kendrick Lamar	no
LCD Soundsystem	yes
Major Lazer	yes
Kygo	no
Chris Stapleton	yes
The Chainsmokers	no
Flume	yes

And then last year, 2017, had the weakest link ever, with only 3 of the top 9 shared between the two festivals.

Chance the Rapper	yes
The Killers	yes
Muse	no
Arcade Fire	no
The XX	yes
Lorde	no
Blink 182	no
DJ Snake	no
Justice	no

Weird, right?  Does that spell the end of the close connection between the two festivals?  Honestly, I hope so!  Just kidding, and I don't actually think so, I just think there are ebbs and flows when it comes to booking acts that already have complicated schedules.  I'd love to get Arctic Monkeys and The National and then skip the rest of the headliners from the Lolla poster.  Or, it could be crazy close this year - I don't see any indication that C3 has decided to fully divest the two from each other...

Also curious about how I did on these predictions last year.  I was right on 6 and wrong on 3 (damn Lorde and Arcade Fire, juking me out), so that is pretty solid predictorations.

So, how likely are we to see the top nine on the Lolla poster for this year?  Let's dig in.  

1. The Weeknd.  He just put out a terrible new album of six boring alt-R&B tunes.  He played ACL in 2015 (same year as he last played Lolla).  He is headlining at Coachella and Panorama as well.  For reasons that escape my brain, he is still massively popular.  So everything possible points towards this pick making all the sense in the world.  He doesn't have a real tour happening right now (his website just obnoxiously shows black and white versions of the Coach and Pano posters when you try to look at the tour), so he has no conflicts with October.  <long, soul-crushed sigh> yeah, I guess we should expect to see him here in October.
2. Bruno Mars.  Now this one is a little more interesting to me.  I'm not a huge fan of the most recent album (that just won all the Grammys), but I'm also generally not that into 90's new jack swing and cheesy R&B balladry, so I ain't the target audience here.  That being said, the dude can sing and dance like a bad mofo, so I'd actually be interested to go check it out just for curiosity's sake and to jam his hits and dance my heart out.  Buuuut, his calendar is very full in October, with shows on Friday and Sunday nights of both weekends.  Theoretically, that means he could play NYC on Friday night, run down to Austin and jam on Saturday night, and then haul up to Nashville for a Sunday night show.  And then the next weekend would be even easier, with Tulsa and Dallas bookending an Austin show.  But is that realistic at all?  Seems like an insane schedule to try to pull off, especially for an artist who does a lot of dancing and moving in his show.  Interestingly, this Rolling Stone announcement of the 24K Magic Tour shows that he is playing in Austin at the Circuit of the Americas on October 20, which happens to be when the F1 race is happening (and they usually book mega stars to play that weekend).  But they   With that evidence in hand, I'm going to go with no.
3. Jack White.  I've already talked about him showing up here quite a bit, and think that they will make it happen.  Here's to him jamming on White Stripes tunes for me.  Yes.
4. Arctic Monkeys.  Also already made the call on these dudes, with nothing changing my opinion since.  Yes.  Also just saw that new album is coming out May 11.  Lock it down!
5. Travis Scott.  This lineup is kind of hilarious, just switching back and forth between artists I can't stand and those that I really like.  I very much dislike Travis Scott.  His website, very annoyingly, lists only one single date in the middle of a page for his tour.  As though the only thing he is doing is Governor's Ball in June.  But he is playing loads of other things, such as Lolla Chicago and Lolla Paris and Rolling Loud in Miami in May.  This "leaked" schedule on reddit shows him playing Zilker Park in October, although it might be entirely fake because it has his Rolling Loud date wrong.  This listing has some other dates on it that don't make that potentially fake one, but it also has him in Paris during the weekend of Lolla, when he is obviously going to be in Chicago.  Man, the Internet will mess you up on this stuff.  What is real?  I guess my instinct on this one is to believe he will be here.  Yes.  (although I'd rather have better rap as the rap headliner, please)
6. The National.  Yes.  I've already run through this one.  New album, playing lots of other festivals.  
7. Vampire Weekend.  Interesting.  Their super helpful website simply has the name of the band on the page where their tour should be listed.  SongKick has them listed for two upcoming festival slots (Fuji Rock in July and End of the Road in September) but doesn't list Lolla.  This dumb website made me think I was going to get a touring listing, but instead just notes those same two festivals.  So I guess no tour.  Hell, I thought they had broken up entirely.  Seems like, without Rostam, their sound is going to be entirely different.  That last article also says that they have a new album almost done, so I guess this makes sense for us to get Vampire Weekend back at Zilker.  But very hard to tell without more data.  I guess I lean towards yes for now.
8. Odesza.  Yeah, just talked about these guys as well the other day, and I think it is a yes.  They are playing loads of other festivals, have no conflicts on their tour calendar, and will appeal to all the hip kids snorting tide pods and ready to party.
9. Logic.  I mentally thought I had already researched this, but apparently not.  I think he could make sense as another young, hot rap artists for the fest, but his tour comes through Austin on July 27, and isn't sold out, so I really doubt that he would immediately be back to Austin for a festival slot.  No.

So, if my predictions are right, we'll have 7 of 9 of the headliners here in Austin.  That is a crazy close connection this year.  Could it be right?  Last year, I correctly guessed whether or not the Lolla headliners would be here on 6 out of 9 (incorrectly thought we'd see Lorde, Arcade Fire, and DJ Snake), so I've done OK in the past.
Now for other folks on the 2018 Lolla lineup that I think will be there (most of these I've already talked about so no need to further discuss):

• Khalid.
• Tyler, the Creator.
• Chvrches.  Loads of festivals this summer, no real tour, but a new album coming out soon and haven't been to ACL in a few years.
• St. Vincent.
• Dua Lipa.
• Brockhampton.
• Greta Van Fleet.

I've still got some more predicting to do, but this one is definitely one of the biggest ones.  I need to go back and re-do my other prediction posts now that we have more touring information, and I think I might also go waste some time with historical touring data...  Fun times!  We'll have the announcement in about a month!