Predicting ACL 2018 - Debunking Myths About Other Austin Dates

Howdy friends!

(btw, I'm really pulling for Chvrches to be included on the lineup this year.  I have no clue what it is about their tunes, because if you asked me to try out an electronic synth pop band from Scotland, I'd likely say hell to the naw.  But their tunes kind of rule.

Last year, I dug down deep into the one of the great mysteries of ACL.  I'm sure you remember, it changed the course of humanity.  For all time, people had been wondering the deepest possible question.  It had consumed their souls.  Entire religions had been formed, confused, and destroyed in pursuit of this deep philosophical mystery.  You don't remember?  You are not a super deep scholar like me, apparently.  The question, the single question to end all questions, what this: Can Chance the Rapper really come back and play ACL again when he just played here two years ago?  And the answer?

42.

No, the answer was yes.  ACL has repeatedly invited an artist to come back with only a one year gap.  No big deal.  And because I figured that information out, I was able to correctly guess that Chance would be joining us in the Fall.  My intelligence is unsurpassed by all mortals.

So, this year I was thinking about another age-old assumption that I have made.  When I am looking at someone's concert calendar, I generally dump them from consideration if they have a show in Austin from May through September.  This rule makes sense to me, especially in cases where the early shows aren't sold out.  Why would the people be clamoring to see Logic in October if he couldn't even sell out a show at the Austin 360 in July?  But even when the concerts are sold out prior to ACL, is there a desire to get a band back to Austin 2 months after they already came through town and sold out a show?  Obviously, my instinct was to say no, this makes no sense.  As an unrepentant data nerd, LET'S GO TO THE NUMBERS!

There is not a simple way to see old concert schedules in Austin.  Well, if you know of one, I'm all ears.  So I just used setlist.fm, filtered for Austin and a particular year, and then clicked eight billion times to run through everything that played in town prior to ACL.  Not the highest and best use of my time, but sometimes a man just needs to find the end of a string.

2017:  Seven of the top nine headliners had nothing in Austin in 2017 prior to ACL: Jay-Z, Chili Peppers, The Killers, Gorillaz, Martin Garrix, Ice Cube, and Ryan Adams.  OK, makes sense.  But that means that two did: Chance the Rapper (May 6 at JMBLYA) and The XX (May 10 and 11 at the Moody).  Huh.  OK, but those just barely crept into May.  Still seems like this is proving my hypothesis.  NOT SO FAST, JACK. 

• Alex G (15th line) played the Parish on June 10.
• A$AP Ferg (line 5) played Austin 360 on June 23.
• Angel Olsen (line 7) played the Moody Theater on July 25.
• Deap Vally (15th line) played the Moody on August 11.

So maybe the rule could be that the headliner-level artist won't play after mid-May, but a few lower level folks can break the rules.  2016 looks surprisingly similar, with the exception of Willie Nelson, who can't be contained by rules.

2016: None of the headliners really had Austin shows after March (when the Chainsmokers sucked it up at a SXSW event).  Willie Nelson played his Fourth of July picnic and like 420 other shows that year in and around Austin, but I don't think that counts.  But none of the other top nine had anything in Austin before ACL in 2016.  However, when you cruise down the poster, you get a bunch of bands playing earlier shows before they come back to town for ACL.  Break Science, M83, Nathaniel Rateliff, Israel Nash, the Front Bottoms, and Foals all played shows in April in Austin.  The Strumbellas, Jazz Cartier, Tory Lanez, and Blue October played in May.  Lewis Del Mar played in June, Margo Price played in July, Blue October played again in August and then also September, and Corrine Bailey Rae played Austin 360 the weekend before ACL's first weekend.  However, even though the number of duplicates is higher, you still only have 4 in June or after.

I lost the will to do all of this for 2015, but I can tell you at least that none of the top nine had a pre-ACL Austin show in 2015 (except for the Weeknd, who played a SXSW show in March).

WHAT HAVE WE SOLVED?  NOTHING!

I guess we can say that none of the top bands would play a show in Austin prior to the Festival (except Willie, who can do whatever he damn well pleases).  But then once you get down the poster a bit, that rule is less strict and some of those folks might sneak in.  Bummer.  I would have liked a hard and fast rule I could apply in the future.  But it totally makes sense that a band on line 15 of the poster could play a July show and it not be a big deal.  98% of the people with ACL tickets never even heard of Deap Vally anyway, so how would they be annoyed about a quick turnaround?  I'll incorporate this research into my proprietary algorithms.