Predicting ACL 2018: Final Prognostications and Thoughts

I think I'm just about done with my predictions.  I'm actually going to be on vacation out of the country on May 5, so if they release the lineup as usual, I'll probably miss it, which is jenky.  I thought about doing a few other angles to figure out predictions, but I'm running out of time (and ready to go on vacation!).  I got an e-mail yesterday or the day before saying to expect the lineup "soon," which seems to me that it should be quicker than two whole weeks, but we'll see.

If you want a run-down of the prediction posts I have already made this year, go to the 2018 page link tab thing up above.  I'll run through some of those prior predictions to update them with new information, and also run through a few odd thoughts I have had recently.

Recent Radio Uptick:
I may be the only one who gets this tickle in my brain, but I feel like the radio starts to overplay certain bands at random, as though they have been given a preview of the ACL lineup (very possible), and told to get people hyped up for bands by playing deep cut music repeatedly.  This makes sense to me - if ACL wants the people to feel hyped when the lineup releases, priming the pump by having people remember that they like The Killers would be a good idea.
I first had this thought a few weeks ago when it felt like I had heard the Talking Heads more than usual when driving my kids to school in the morning.  Maybe they have been playing "Burning Down the House" and "Once in a Lifetime" all the time, and I'm only just now thinking of it because I'm writing this blog.  Or maybe David Byrne's tasty new album caused some music directors to dust off Remain in Light and give it another spin.  I dunno.  But it feels suspicious.  A few bands fall into this category so I'm gonna look into them real quick.

• The Talking Heads.  In this recent interview, Byrne says he isn't interested in a nostalgia trip reunion of the old band.  He doesn't say it would never happen, or that the band members all hate each other, he just intimates that it wouldn't appeal to him.  But he's also currently on the road to pimp his own new album, so it would seem to be an odd way to perform on this tour, a one-off reunion show just for Austin.  Also, I don't know what Byrne would get from TH that he can't get from his own band.  Despite the recent (perceived) uptick in their songs, I'm going to say no.
• The Cure.  I literally had conversations with two of my children, on different recent occasions, trying to explain how and why Robert Smith would have such a roller coaster of emotions that always peaked on Friday.  My son found that song to be hilarious.  But on several different radio stations, with different songs, I've noticed more Cure tunes being played than I feel like was historically normal.  Then, Twitter serves up a string of posts about how The Cure is apparently making new music and having a festival for 40th anniversary.  Festivals.  New music.  Huh.  Their website says "currently no show announced!"  Which is interesting wording, right?  We know Robert Smith is playing the Meltdown (a festival he is curating and hosting) and a big "one-off" show in London in July.  Interesting choice of words on the poster for that show - "Only European Show of 2018."  Leaves open the possibility of shows in America.  Could they be playing Austin?  I see no other credible evidence online, so what does my gut tell me?  I think no.  When they played in 2013, I was about 5 people back from the stage, and the show was highly fun for me (because I grew up on those songs), but I didn't get the sense that the entire crowd was super into it.  Nor did I honestly get the feeling that the band was super into it.  But that show felt like a once-in-a-lifetime type experience, of The Cure deciding to show up for a major American festival, not like something they planned to do again.  I could be wrong.  Just doesn't feel like it would happen.  (although as I proof-read this before publishing, I'm feeling like this could be a big "get" for the festival to add some well-known star power to the lineup).
• Florence & the Machine.  Another with a recent uptick in radio play (in my mind at least), although in this instance it could very well just be because a new album is on the way and a new single was recently released.  Maybe nothing smoking here.  They are playing a handful of festivals all around the world - no major Fests - and are done in early September, leaving plenty of time to show up in Austin.  Their set a few years ago blew my damn mind, so I'd be fully on board with another shot at them.  I guess I wouldn't be surprised, but I also won't predict it. No.

[EDIT] - literally 30 minutes after I posted this, I drove for a little bit and heard a 2004 Franz Ferdinand song, followed directly by a new War on Drugs song, and then on my way back from my errand I heard on of the National's Grateful Dead covers.  I'm telling you, this is a thing.  I need to figure out a way to research this stuff - can anyone out there build me an app that scrapes radio playlists and then runs studies on changes over time?

Prior predictions that I no longer believe: 

• U2. U2 is a no - playing in Europe during both weekends of ACL.  That makes me sad.
• Queens of the Stone Age.  I'm seeing them tomorrow night at the Austin 360 amphitheater and am PUMPED.  An April show would allow them to come back in the fall, and they were named to play Shaky Knees as well as a bunch of other festivals all summer, but not playing Lolla makes me feel like this prediction is a miss.  Their tour is done in July, so they could be able to make it back to Austin, but I'm just not feeling it anymore.
• Arcade Fire.  I want them to be here.  Very much so.  But I see no indications that would lead me to think they'll add Austin to the tour.  Their tour right now plays a few small festivals and then is done in mid-August.  I'd love to see them again, but I just don't see any evidence.  The strongest thing I can come up with is that they played Lolla last year but not ACL, so maybe they owe it to the C3 folks?  Please make me wrong on this one.
• Kanye West.  I originally made this pick simply because I figured they needed a big rap star for the fest.  Do you remember how amazing the rap lineup was for last year?  Jay Z, Chance, Cube, and Run the Jewels?  Plus smaller guys like A$AP Ferg?  So good.  West has begun tweeting again (which is terrible, don't go read his tweets) and is talking up several new albums that are coming out soon.  So, theoretically, he could come out in support of those new albums and tour.  His website still just shows his 2016 tour, so no news about touring except for old articles that likely aren't up to date today.  NO reason to think he'd come to Austin as of now, going with no.
• Lorde.  Only playing European festivals this summer, and although she has a big gap where she could play ACL, I don't see much excitement or a reason.
• Eminem.  His tour only goes through July, no Lolla, and if he is on the poster I am going to cry tears of sadness and boredom, so I'm going no.
• Other ones I kind of predicted but I viewed as more joking than real, but they aren't coming.  
• Coldplay (no longer touring, album is old)
• Garth Brooks (playing one upcoming show, see no reason to think he'd show up in Austin)
• George Strait (playing Austin in June, see no reason he'd show up at ACL (although it would be amazing))
• The Eagles (they are playing shows in the NE both weekends of ACL)
• Justin Timberlake.  Was sort of half way being funny about predicting him, but he'll be in Canada at the time.  So no.

The Big Headliners:

• Beck. This one has been a solid guess for me since day one.  Perfect headliner. Totally kick ass, fun, exciting new album that crosses over into dance and rock at the same time.  He hasn't been to ACL in a few years, but he feels like the ethos of the Fest.  He's also doing the Aussie and NZ ACLs.  His tour goes all over the place but no dates in Texas (unless they already happened, but none happened in Austin) and ends on September 28.  Perfect timing.  I feel good about this.
• Jack White.  He's playing in Austin at the start of May, but I know now that isn't a big deal for ACL.  Touring in support of a new album (that is too weird for my personal tastes), and showing at Lolla Chicago.  Tour is over Sept. 22, so perfect time to go handle two weekends in Austin.  Feel strongly about this one.  I just wish he would do all White Stripes...
• Arctic Monkeys.  I've talked about them for a while, out there to support a new album and playing Lolla already.  Their tour goes all over the world, but no Texas dates, and ends on September 28, in perfect time for two dates in Austin.  Sticking with my guns.
• David Byrne.  As I mentioned before, he is not only touring on the back of a good new album, but his tour shows Dallas on October 6, which is the Saturday night of the first weekend of ACL, leaving his ready to be in Austin for both Fridays of the Fest.  Feeling it.
• The National.  #6 atop the Lolla lineup, playing Shaky Knees (also C3 booked), and playing Red Rocks in Colorado on October 9 (directly in the middle of the ACL weekends).  Count it.
• Metallica.  Interesting stuff with their touring calendar - they have a fat, random break from Sept. 15 to Oct. 16, and then their tour's only Texas stops are Lubbock (?!?) and El Paso, in 2019.  Weird choices for Texas cities, although metal love knows no boundaries.  I've been hoping/predicting these guys for ACL for years, and after looking at the five I've predicted up above, I feel like we need some transcendent star power added to the bill.  What the hell, let's say yes.
• The Weeknd.  He last played ACL in 2015 (same year as he last played Lolla), and now he's on the bill for Coachella, Panorama, Lolla, and Outside Lands. He has no conflicts with October, and is pimping a new terrible album/EP.  I'd be very happy to be wrong on this one.
• Odesza.  I don't even know that these guys play, but they'll be at Lolla, have time in their schedule, and we need some bleepy bloop electro people for the children to smoke drugs to.
• Travis Scott.  I'm generally repeating myself from the Lolla post, but I wanted to get all the odd nuances back into this post.  I very much dislike Travis Scott.  His website, very annoyingly, lists only one single date in the middle of a page for his tour.  As though the only thing he is doing is Governor's Ball in June.  But he is playing loads of other things, such as Lolla Chicago and Lolla Paris and Rolling Loud in Miami in May.  This "leaked" schedule on reddit shows him playing Zilker Park in October, although it might be entirely fake because it has his Rolling Loud date wrong.  This listing has some other dates on it that don't include that potentially fake one, but it also has him in Paris during the weekend of Lolla, when he is obviously going to be in Chicago.  Man, the Internet will mess you up on this stuff.  What is real?  I guess my instinct on this one is to believe he will be here.  Yes.  (although I'd rather have better rap as the rap headliner, please)

That is a top nine.  I have some others who might be bigger bands than those, and therefore maybe should have gained a top spot in the top nine, but I couldn't decide the order, so they'll be below here.  
Honestly, I think I'm wrong about at least a few of those, just because I think we need another major artist. I know The Weeknd and Metallica are large and have big fan bases, but nothing on here is in the Jay-Z/ Radiohead stratosphere where people will be like "oh shit, they got xxxxxx!"  My guess is there is someone else whe is not even on my radar that will be exciting.  

• Had this conversation with a friend the other day about who would be the truly gigantic people to get on the bill.  Springsteen.  Rolling Stones.  Dylan.  McCartney.  Stevie Wonder.  The Who. Taylor Swift or Beyonce.  Fleetwood Mac.  (of course sick stuff like a Zeppelin reunion or Pink Floyd reunion, if those could ever happen).  U2.  Madonna.  George Strait.  Maybe the Eagles.  None of those smell especially likely.

Also, I may be seriously missing some of the electronic and rap things that could be here.  In the electro world, I'm just not into it at all, so I have no clue if everyone else is sure that The Chainsmokers are about to release a new album with DaftMau5 and come blow minds.  And Travis Scott being the top rap artist is weird, I don't feel like that can be right, but I also don't know who it would be instead.

Others I think will show up.  If you need reasoning, go find my older posts about this stuff:

• Avett Brothers.  The last time I wrote about them potentially coming, I said that their tour ended in late August.  Well, new dates have been released that go right on up to September 29.  And none of their dates are in Texas.  Yeah, and anyway, don’t these guys need to be at ACL every other year in order to function or something? 
• Franz Ferdinand.  Playing to support a new-ish album, playing Emo's (C3 booked) in May, and on the Lolla poster.
• Vampire Weekend.  
• Khalid
• Paramore
• Phoenix
• SZA
• St. Vincent (something called Grandoozy, in Denver in mid-September, has both St. Vincent and Phoenix, and the web says it is created by the same people as Bonnaroo.  HOly shit.  They have Kendrick, Florence, and Stevie f'ing Wonder (and Sturgill).  That is a salty top three, man.)
• Vince Staples
• Perfume Genius.  Touring with David Byrne, tour over in August.
• King Krule.  Playing Emo's in April.
• Big Thief.  Touring w/ The National.  Gap in shows between Sept. 24 and Oct. 17.
• Father John Misty.  The whole of October is open on his touring calendar.  Reportedly has a new album on the way...
• Manchester Orchestra.  Playing every festival.
• The War on Drugs
• Tyler the Creator
• Greta Van Fleet.  Stubbs in May.  Lolla in summer.
• Dua Lipa.
• Chvrches.  I was, quite frankly, actually sad to see that they have a full concert calendar in October that does not include Austin, but then I looked more carefully at the calendar, and it has wide open gaps for both weekends, with shows in Wisconsin the Thus. before weekend one, then Alabama the Monday after weekend one, then in New Orleans the Thursday before weekend two, and The Ryman Theater on the Monday after Weekend Two.  So they are perfectly set up to come jam on one of the nights and then watch the rest of the weekend from the side stages.  I'm so happy to see that possibility.
• Superorganism.
• Asleep at the Wheel   😉

OOOOH!  I just got an e-mail saying the announcement will come on May 1.  That is a few days early AND I'LL STILL BE IN AMERICA!  Super excited about the announcement.  I'm hoping they come up with another fun way of leaking out some of the bands - like the spinning signs or bottle caps from years past.  I saw some instagram posts about Lolla leaks (through weird emojis) although I was never sure if they were real, but that would be fun.  Happy week until we know the lineup for real!!!