Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Predicting ACL 2023: Lollapalooza 2023

Man, I have been terrible at predictions this year!  I suck!  I literally haven't even really read up on the Lolla lineup, and that has been out for weeks.  Slacker!  Let's work on fixing that now.  But first, some of the usual discussion of the close-knit relationship between these two Festivals.


I always think of Lollapalooza as the sister show to ACL.  They get some things that we just saw.  We get some things that they just saw.  We're linked and its fun.  I was very grateful though, that the link between them has been fraying more over the past few years, as their lineup seems to be consistently leaning more towards the pop stuff that I don't want to see.  But they are getting the Chilis, Carly Rae Jepsen, Diplo, and some other stuff we just got last year, and I expect that we'll get some crossover from this year's lineup as well (even though last year's link was almost nothing).

I always fear that Festival life is about to pass me by and leave me the bitter old dude still listening to the few rock shows on tiny stages instead of trying new things.  So far, I'm still pretty varied in my musical love, but I am definitely not the target audience of the 2023 Coachella lineup - the majority of the lineup leaves me unimpressed.

But still, I love this post.  I love the guessing game and murder mystery sleuthing that comes with trying to figure things out. This is a fun game for me.  You want to see some of the history?  Sure!  I still have this stuff around...
 if you don't care about all of this, then just scan on down past the little charts.  The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:

2012:
Red Hot Chili Peppers
yes
Black Keys
yes
Black Sabbath
no
Jack White
yes
Florence & the Machine
yes
At the Drive In
no
Bassnectar
yes
Avicii
yes
The Shins
yes

2014:

Eminem
yes
Outkast
yes
Kings of Leon
no
Arctic Monkeys
no
Skrillex
yes
Calvin Harris
yes
Lorde
yes
The Avett Brothers
yes
Foster the People
yes


Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith.

Paul McCartney
no
Metallica
no
Florence & the Machine
yes
Sam Smith
no
Bassnectar
yes
The Weeknd
yes
Alt-J
yes
Alabama Shakes
yes
Of Monsters and Men
yes

Then 2011, 2013, and last year (2018) show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:


2011:
Eminem
no
Foo Fighters
no
Coldplay
yes
Muse
no
My Morning Jacket
yes
Deadmau5
no
A Perfect Circle
no
Cee Lo Green
yes
Damian Marley & Nas
yes

2013:
The Cure
yes
Mumford & Sons
no
the Killers
no
Nine Inch Nails
no
Phoenix
yes
the Postal Service
no
Vampire Weekend
yes
New Order
no
Queens of the Stone Age
yes

2018:
The Weeknd
no
Bruno Mars
no
Jack White
no
Arctic Monkeys
yes
Travis Scott
yes
The National
yes
Vampire Weekend
no
Odesza
yes
Logic
no

2016 was a little stronger than those two years, but it is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, because Lolla went to four nights in 2019 in order to celebrate an anniversary. But you still get a 5 of 9 matchup (if you ask me), which is still a close link but not that strong:

Radiohead
yes
Mumford & Sons
no
Kendrick Lamar
no
LCD Soundsystem
yes
Major Lazer
yes
Kygo
no
Chris Stapleton
yes
The Chainsmokers
no
Flume
yes

2017 had the weakest link ever, with only 3 of the top 9 shared between the two festivals.
Chance the Rapper
yes
The Killers
yes
Muse
no
Arcade Fire
no
The XX
yes
Lorde
no
Blink 182
no
DJ Snake
no
Justice
no

Some of the differences come because the two festivals apparently value people differently.  For example, in 2018, Khalid was the #7 artist on the ACL poster, but only #11 on the Lolla poster.  Camilla Cabello was #9 on the ACL poster but was all the way down at #24 on the Lolla poster (which is honestly weird).  Chvches was #13 on ACL, but #15 for Lolla.  Why are all of our bands worse in the eyes of Lolla?  So you can't solely judge off of the top two lines of the poster, even if those are usually the most exciting things to see.


2021 only shared 3 artists.  2022 shared Billy Strings and Doja Cat, but ZERO of the main headliners.  ZERO!!!  That is sort of wild.  Maybe the connection has been severed?

So, how likely are we to see the top artists on the Lolla poster for this year?  Let's dig in.

Headliners:
  • Billie Eilish.  Blurg, I super-duper hope we aren't stuck with her back here again.  That would make me very sad.  Her current tour is just a string of Festivals, but the last one is in August.  So, at least there is not like an appearance in New Orleans on October 1 and then Phoenix on October 18.  Not feeling it, in gut, heart, and mind, so saying no and crossing my fingers that I am right.
  • Karol G.  Not even really on tour.  A show in April, one in May, and then Lolla.  She was here in 2021, so that is enough of a gap to expect that she could be back on the poster.  But I'm not expecting it.
  • Kendrick Lamar.  Are any of the headliners for Lollapalooza actually on tour?  He's doing Governors, Bonnaroo, Lolla, Outside Lands, and finally something called Life is Beautiful on Sept. 22.  Certainly good timing to be a part of ACL.  I'm less excited about this, if true, than in the past after seeing him play live before.  I know this will probably not be a popular opinion, but smart rap is just not as fun in a live setting.  I still think Good Kid is one of the best rap albums ever!  But it is way more fun to get stupid to Brockhampton than to hear someone rap about their feelings or Maya Angelou poetry.  But yeah, I feel like this seems likely.
  • The 1975.  They played the Moody last fall, and from what people say about this tour, it is not something you really need to see.  Sounds like the lead singer just does weird crap during the set. They are in Europe now, but then come back to the States for Lolla, Outside Lands, and Life is Beautiful.  Which sure sounds familiar after looking at Kendrick.  So, yeah, this feels legit even though C3 doesn't book those other Festivals (I don't think!).
  • Odesza.  Oh Lordy, another artist claiming this is their last tour ever.  That schtick is tiring...  But, LOL, they are playing Lolla, Outside Lands, and Life is Beautiful!  But, their tour also goes to Arkansas on Friday of Weekend One, and Kansas City on Friday of Weekend Two.  So there is a little more interference than with Kendrick or the '75.  But yeah, sure, this feels like it could be the big EDM artist for this year.
  • Tomorrow x Together.  WTF is that.  Ah, some sort of KPop thing.  Huh, they are playing two nights in a row in San Antonio in May.  That seems like a good indication that they are pretty popular! Lolla is the last thing on their calendar, so I'm going to go with no on this one.
  • Red Hot Chili Peppers.  Nope!
  • Lana Del Rey.  I feel like I have predicted her so many times in the past, and she's never on the bill.  She's doing part of the trifecta I've outlined above - Loll and then Outside Lands (8/11).  But without Life is Beautiful right before ACL, I see no good reason to predict that she'll head back out in October.  Nah.
Other Top-Line Type folks that I am feeling:
  • The Revivalists.  Are my guys ever going to release another album?  Oh, okay, a few new singles recently, that is good news.  Playing Jazz Fest, Bonnaroo, Lollapalooza, Bumbershoot, and end with Red Rocks on Sept. 14.  That feels like a pretty good setup for them to head to Austin afterwards.  They'd be pretty dope to see at Red Rocks!  Going with yes.
  • Maggie Rogers.  Lolla and Outside Lands, but no Life is Beautiful because she'll be in D.C. on Sept. 29.  Nothing on the calendar after that, so I'm feeling good about her coming to Austin.
  • [God, I'm old and don't know any of these artists who are supposedly better than The freaking Revivalists]
  • J.I.D.  On a monster tour, hits Lolla and Outside Lands at the end, but then nothing else.  I'd like to add him to the poster, as I think he is freaking good, but I see nothing here that really spells that out for me.  Nah.
  • Fred Again.  No clue what this even is.  Literally never even heard of its existence.  Playing lots of Festivals internationally, but the website doesn't even list Lolla.  But the Ticketmaster website has that listed as the only US date on their schedule.  So, no reason to expect this is happening.
  • Noah Kahan.  Another I've never heard of, and yet he is listed higher than a bunch of really good stuff.  And he is playing a sold out Red Rocks in July!  He must be something special!  He hits something called Ocean's Calling on Sept. 30, and nothing else is on the schedule after that, so he sure sounds like the perfect fit to add to the poster.  I better start checking him out!  Yes.
  • A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie.  Just a terrible name.  Awful.  Almost as bad as the Young Boy Never Broke Again guy.  Playing Coachella, but his dumb website doesn't even list Lolla.  The Ticketmaster site shows that Lolla is his last show until he plays Wilkes-Barre, PA on New Years Eve of 2031.  Which is either very forward-looking or a typo.  I see no reason to think he'd stop the tour and then fire up for Austin, so no.
Also of note, I predicted Green Day in my Recent Radio Uptick post, and they were a headliner last year for Lollapalooza, so maybe they are the one that we are trading for the Chilis.  Feels even better that we'd get them this year.

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