I've been just awful about doing my usual prediction posts this year. Just too much life going on for me these days, I don't have the time to sit down and comb through concert schedules and such like I used to. Or maybe I have the time, I'm just choosing to use it for something else. Either way, my apologies if you have been relying on me for ACL poster guesses.
But, on my way to the office this morning, this post wormed its way in to my head. For the past few years I have written a prognosticating post about a "recent radio uptick." By this, I mean that I am experiencing a sensation that a particular artist has been getting more radio play than usual. Maybe it is all just happenstance, and it probably is, but it feels like I'll start to notice random tracks every day from one artist, and so that brought to mind my theory that the ACL people hand off an early teaser of the lineup to local radio stations. The radio stations then start playing those bands/artists early, so that the ACL people remind the masses about good songs from the bands they are about to announce, which hypes the fans, makes it seem like the ACL people are booking a "favorite," and the radio stations get to be like "oh, we've been playing that band forever, we know music, yo!" Wins all around.
A few years back, it popped into my head because I had noticed that the few radio stations I listen to had been playing the hell out of The National. Go check this post if you want to see my thoughts on it then. To measure this (in an admittedly inexact way), I've checked out the KUTX playlist archive in the past. This time, I'm lazy and I'm not going to go through the full spreadsheet-building exercise I have done in the past.
If you are curious, last year, this method predicted: Wet Leg (correct!), Little Simz (wrong!), Spoon (correct!), The Pixies (wrong!), The Marias (correct!), and Big Thief (wrong!). 50/50 ain't bad, but it also ain't amazing.
Without diving into spreadsheets, here are anecdotally higher playcount artists that I'll look at: Green Day, Red Hot Chili Peppers (I know, they are a no, but the radio is playing the hell out of them right now), Foo Fighters, Khruangbin, New Order, Midnight Oil, Fallout Boy, Linkin Park, Maneskin, Bully, Boygenius, LCD Soundsystem, Steve Lacy, Gorillaz, Unknown Mortal Orchestra. I'm well aware that some of these just have a hot song or a new album out, but they stick out in my mind as getting more plays recently than normal.
- Green Day. Not on an actual tour, but playing a few festivals this summer and fall. They have a nice ACL-sized gap in the poster between Sept. 24 in Louisville, KY and Oct. 21 in Las Vegas. If they have been to ACL before, it was a million years ago because I don't remember it. I'd personally dig it! Going with Yes (mainly out of pure hopefull-ness!)
- Red Hot Chili Peppers. Would be a funny troll by C3 after all of the complaints last year about how the Chilis are booked too often. But no.
- Foo Fighters. I have to say I was glad to see them announce a tour. I was a little worried about the future of the band after the death of Taylor Hawkins. Grohl has had to deal with some crushing deaths in his bands before, and it just worried me that they might roll it up and live off of their millions instead of pushing forward. I am feeling pretty solid about this one - their whole tour ends on October 5 in El Paso, and they have no other Texas cities announced yet. So it makes total sense that they'd close out Sunday, October 8 in Austin, then play the next Sunday, and then announce dates in Dallas and Houston and beyond. Absolutely yes.
- This was not part of the original list, but I see that The Breeders are opening for the Foos on some of these dates. They played ACL in 2018, and their touring schedule likewise ends on October 5. Sure, I can see them being tossed onto the poster a little further down.
- Khruangbin. Not on tour. They still feel like the quintessential ACL artist though, with a funky sound and a Texas home. But nah.
- New Order. I was really feeling like this one was going to be a lock once I looked at their schedule, but they are playing Glasgow on 10/5 and Leeds on 10/7, which is the Saturday of Weekend One, so that sure feels less likely now. I suppose that could just be a weekend two thing, but that is a pretty major artist to split up for folks. No.
- Midnight Oil. Lol. I know. This is deeply unlikely, but I love Midnight Oil, and for reasons that I will never understand 101X has played "Beds are Burning" twice recently. I can think of no other reason for an alternative rock station in 2023 to play The Oil. But, sadly, they claim that their last tour in 2022 was the final tour ever. So, that is a no.
- Fallout Boy. They play Houston and Dallas in June, and then have a large gap in their tour between August 20 and October 15, where they could fit Friday night shows into the ACL weekends. The 15th is Sunday night of Weekend Two, so that makes this feel less likely than if they had a full gap for those two weekends. Going to lean towards no.
- Linkin Park. They released a new 20th anniversary thing for Meteora recently, and so the radio has been spinning a newly released track and some old stuff too. I don't think they are going to tour again though, everything I read about it says that they talk about it some, but that there are no plans for a new tour without Chester Beddington. No.
- Maneskin. Hmmmm. This one is both interesting and doubtful. They play Irving, Texas on Friday of Weekend One, then Inglewood, CA on Tuesday in between, then Oakland on Friday of Weekend Two. Which would seem like an okay setup for playing Sunday of the Fest, but then I see that they also play Vancouver on October 15 (Sunday of Weekend Two). Feels like too full of a schedule. They could pull it off, but that is a lot of flight time. No.
- Bully. Nah, she is playing the Moody Amp. on June 25. I really like that new song they are playing a lot though!
- Boygenius. Anyone else have FOMO seeing them play those shows at the baggage claim on Austin Bergstrom? Jelly for sure about all of the randos who happened to get to see that show without even meaning to see it. They are playing Coachella in April, Houston and Dallas in June, but then launch over to Europe. Final show published as of now is August 28 in Dublin. They'd be an amazing get for the Fest - all three of them on their own would be amazing - but nothing in this schedule gives me any promise. Was hoping they were on the Lolla poster because then it would feel more right. No.
- LCD Soundsystem. These dopes have retired and unretired too many times for me to know what they are up to, but they are on the poster for the Format Festival in Bentonville, AR at the end of September. That Festival is produced in partnership with C3, so the artists on this poster would have a really good chance to show up in Austin as well two weeks later. That is probably a whole other post, to go in to some of the good stuff on that poster - Alanis Morissette, Little Simz, Leon Bridges, Digable Planets, The Pharcyde. But other than this festival and some other dates over the summer, no tour for LCD. As usual, this would not excite me at all, so I lean towards a no. But who knows, it makes sense for C3 to have booked them and keep the aging hipsters happy. Going with my gut and saying no, but could definitely be wrong.
- Just out of curiousity, I checked out Morissette, and she is also a possibility. She plays the Format the weekend of Sept. 23, then Oceans Calling Fest on Sept. 29, then Sound on Sound the weekend of Sept. 30. So she's just keep the thing going and show up in Austin the next weekend for some more Festivals. There was a lot of excitement about her appearance at the CMT awards just recently, in Austin, with Jackie Venson shredding at her side. Fees good. She can be the old revival artist like Carly Rae Jepsen from last year.
- Steve Lacy. I know nothing about this dude, except that he has one really hot single. His tour ends on August 27, no indication of continuing, and no Lolla date. Feels like a no.
- Gorillaz. Looks like their tour was last year, and nothing new on the calendar. I wish the radio would quit playing that damn "Cracker Beach" song then.
- Unknown Mortal Orchestra. They were on the poster last year, so I'm going with a no.
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