Predicting ACL 2017: The Final Countdown! [EDIT 4/20/17]

I think I'm just about done with my predictions.  I have left out a few other angles that I've looked at in previous years, like major tours, big streaming numbers, or bands playing other C3-related venues like Trees in Dallas, but I don't feel like I ended up gleaning much from those angles in the past.  So now I feel like I've gotten through the majority of what makes sense this year.  Let's recap it all, with an eye on the formal announcement, which I expect to happen again around May 5 (even though ACL's twitter account keeps saying to expect exciting new soon - yesterday they posted it twice - "coming soon!").
Here is the run-down of my old prediction posts from this year:

• Extremely, Outrageously Early Predictions.  
• Live Nation Bands (and a Gut Intuition Update).  
• Bands Playing the International Lolla Festivals.  
• Critical Darlings.  
• Groups Making the Festival Rounds this Year.  
• Lollapalooza Chicago.  
• Big Bands with Shows in the Area Right Around the ACL Weekends.  
• Bands With New Music.  

Prior predictions that I think are junk now: 

• Green Day (will be in Austin for Sept. show).
• Daft Punk (no indication of a tour, not doing Lolla, and that Weeknd song is terrible).
• Steve Aoki (playing Jmblya in Austin).
• Paul Simon (zero indication of tour lasting longer than July). 
• Kings of Leon (playing Austin at 360 before the Fest)
• Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds (nope, will be in France)
• The Killers (I still just don't see how these guys end up here with no new album yet and no reason to be on the major festival circuit other than Lolla.  But they could be here, it would make as much (or really as little) sense as them being on the Lolla poster).
• [EDIT]  After the first comment below from EarDrumKicks (thank you sir or madam), I thought I'd look back at the likelihood of Chance coming back after being here in 2015.  Seems too quick to have someone back with just a one year gap, so I've been ignoring that potential.  So I looked back at my spreadsheet of ACL bands since 2011 for examples of bands who came back with only a one year gap.
• Fun fact, the original poster from 2002 just listed everyone in alphabetical order. Versus now when everyone probably fights and jockeys to be the number one guy on the poster.
• Of course, Asleep at the Wheel jacks up this whole thing, by playing every year. Delta Spirit also played 2011 and 2012 in a row. (I'm not looking at the gospel or kiddie shows, which play pretty frequently).
• A two year gap is seems more common, like Alabama Shakes and Bassnectar playing 2012 and 2015.  Others: Ben Howard, Chromeo, Father John Misty, Fitz & the Tantrums, Foster the People, Gary Clark Jr., Haim, J. Roddy Walston & the Business, Jon Pardi, Kendrick Lamar, Local Natives, Miniature Tigers, Skrillex, The Head & the Heart, Wild Belle. And it just barely is more common, with 17 of those just listed.
• I have to admit I am wrong - bands have done the one year gap - 16 over six years.  And it hasn't just been the minor bands at the bottom of the lineup.
• Cherub played 2013 and 2015
• Childish Gambino played 2012 and 2014
• Courtyard Hounds in 2011 and 2013
• FIDLAR in 2013 and 2015 (although as I recall, they were a late add to 2015)
• Houndmouth in 2013 and 2015
• Major Lazer in 2014 and 2016
• Mona in 2011 and 2013
• Nikki Lane in 2012 and 2014
• Phosphorescent 2011 and 2013
• Polica in 2012 and 2014
• Shakey Graves in 2013 and 2015
• Smith Westerns in 2011 to 2013
• Tame Impala in 2013 to 2015
• The Avett Brothers in 2012 to 2014
• The Durdens in 2011 and 2013
• Walk the Moon 2013 to 2015
• Of those sixteen, I'd say that none of those are the true headliners.  But of the three who come closest:
• Major Lazer was fourth line in 2014 and then second line in 2016. (So I guess they are a major headliner, even if I don't want to see them).
• The Avett Brothers were second line in 2012 but then fourth line in 2014.
• Tame Impala was sixth row in 2013 and up on the fourth line on the 2015 poster.  
• So that doesn't entirely jibe with the theory I'd been coming up with, that there can be a one year gap when a band goes from an unknown to a hit.  Otherwise, the Avetts would not have gone backwards on the poster.  
• Chance the Rapper was a fifth line artists on the 2015 poster, and his show was freaking packed.  We'll look more at Chance in a minute, now that I am going to edit my headliner picks.

The Big Headliners:

• Red Hot Chili Peppers.  Predicted them back in October 2016 with my first set of predictions, based on little more than my love for them.  But then I upped my confidence level in January when I saw they had been named to play Lolla Paris.  And then became super confident in this one when I saw that they are playing two shows in Mexico City during the week in between the two weekends of ACL.  Super confident.
• Metallica.  Was feeling confident about this one but that confidence has faded over time. I predicted them in that first set of predictions, and then kept them in it in January when I realized they were headlining all of the Lolla South America shows.  But I don't know, it feels like the buzz has dropped, and then they are playing Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas in June. But they do still have a big gap in their touring calendar that leaves the beginning of October open.  So screw it.  Even though this would lead to a pretty heavy rock headliner mix for the Fest, I'll still predict them.  Lukewarm confidence.
• I'm dropping out Metallica and adding in Chance the Rapper.  As noted above, I wasn't very sure about Metallica in the first place, but after EarDrumKicks' comment below, and then doing the research above, I guess that it wouldn't be out of line to have a big name come back after one one year's gap in between years.  I still think it is odd, because his schedule shows he'll be in Austin for a minor festival in May, then he'll be playing two sold out shows in LA the Wednesday and Thursday before weekend one.  Sure, he is the top name on the Lolla poster, but those other shows seems to indicate that he wouldn't be up for ACL too.  But I do feel like there needs to be a big rap name up at the top of this poster, and he's one of the hottest in the world right now (and is playing a ton of festivals this year other than Lolla). So, I'll adjust on the fly here and remove Metallica in favor of Chance.  Medium-level confidence.
• Arcade Fire.  Brought them up for the first time in the post about LiveNation bands from January, and I feel even more strongly about it since they were named as a Lolla headliner. Super confident.
• The XX.  I don't know if they should be considered a headliner, but I'm still on board with them showing up.  Playing all three of the south American Lollas and the Chicago version, and even though they just played some Austin shows, I still think there is an appetite for them in the fall.  78.7% confidence level.
• Lorde.  Doing all the festivals, including Lolla.  First predicted her in the listing of bands making the Festival circuit this year, and I still think she is going to come here too.  Strong confidence.
• So, that is five headliners.  Who is the big sixth one?  Here is my theory, which popped in to my head the other day as I prepared my final predictions post about bands putting out new music.  Both Gorillaz and Coldplay have new albums coming out this year, and both could be headliner-type talent at ACL that would be right up the alley of people who want to come to this festival.  But, neither of them appears to be available for both weekends, so what if Gorillaz plays weekend one and then Coldplay plays weekend two?  It could work!  The fly in this ointment is that Gorillaz is playing in CA the night before weekend one starts, so they'd have to travel and probably not play Friday, but that sounds OK, right?  I have low confidence here, but wanted to predict this because if I was right it would be some major Nostradamus shit.  More likely, neither of these bands is coming and DJ Snake will be turning down for what in this slot.

Looking at those predictions, they feel light on the electronic and rap that has been in the headliner slots for the past few years, so I could be significantly off-base.  But I just don't see any reason that any of the major rappers is going to do a one-off at ACL when they haven't been doing any of the other Fests (or like Kendrick and Chance they played here in the past two years already).  So I'll stick with it.  There very well could be some big electro person coming to take one of those slots, I just don't know squat about that world.

Others I think will show up.  If you need reasoning, go find my older posts about this stuff:

• Spoon
• Interpol
• Foster the People
• Ryan Adams
• Big Sean
• The Shins
• The Head & the Heart
• DJ Snake
• Angel Olsen
• Bon Iver
• Mitski
• Car Seat Headrest
• Nicholas Jaar
• Francis & the Lights
• Mondo Cozmo
• Marshmallo
• Warpaint
• Future Islands
• Rainbow Kitten Surprise
• Glass Animals
• Rae Sremmurd
• Ragn'Bone Man
• Highly Suspect
• Migos
• Temples
• Asleep at the Wheel   😉

Super excited about the announcement.  I hope they have a cool way of releasing them up their sleeves, I thought it was super cool how they had some bands announced last year through people standing on street corners with spinning signs.  I feel like they did it with bottle caps one year?  Or was it coffee cups?  Something where people were finding stuff out bit by bit...  Anyway, happy upcoming announcement day, folks!