Predicting ACL 2019: The Final Prediction [EDIT]

With the announcement today that we are just a few days away from the final announcement, it's time for me to finalize my predictions and make my final guesses.  Not going to add anything new that I haven't already looked at, but am just going to collect everyone that I have already predicted and do one last check to see how hard I am for my prediction.

If you want to see my prior prediction sets and don't want to hunt for them, click on the ACL 2019 banner button thing up above.

Tuesday, April 30th for the announcement, which is about a week earlier than normal.  I'm ready!  I really need to start jamming out to garbage indie rock bands from Perth and writing 2,000 word screeds about why their sound combines Pavement with INXS in a way that reminds me of The Culture Club.  HURRY UP ALREADY!  Also, I'm excited for the fun announcements - remember last year's weird ass Facebook Live thing in the laundromat?  Where they kept taking out and folding t-shirts that matched up to bands coming to the Fest?  That was a good one (better than the sign spinners).

I gotta say, if we get the same lineup as Lolla, Coachella, or Bonnaroo, I'm going to be mightily disappointed.  I know that we usually get different stuff than those lineups, but those others sure are trending towards the young and the pop-centered.  That being said, now that I have finished this post, I really like a bunch of the things that I think are locked in - Kacey Musgraves, Tame Impala, Gary Clark, The Raconteurs, and Lizzo are all super fun.  BUT, there had better be some other headliners other than what I have named, because a top line of the groups I have named below as lock down folks would be missing some star power for sure.

Slight set of edits here, because I just went and did my Recent Radio Uptick blog post, so I've added in a few more items.

Hard Lock Groups I Feel Confident About:

• Childish Gambino.  I think he makes it up to us this year after being a big crybaby last year.  He's already doing Lolla and Bonnaroo, both of which are C3 shows, so I think he keeps that going and makes it up to C3 for forcing them to scramble two weeks before showtime last year.  [although, no recent radio uptick on KUTX...]
• Kacey Musgraves.  She's playing every large fest and has a big gap for ACL.  Lock it down.
• Cardi B.  Predicted her in my original post and still think it makes sense.  Her tour ends in September, so she's got the time to make it fit, and is still hot/benefiting from her top album last year.  A good, big rap name for the top few lines of the poster.
• Tame Impala.  Playing Lolla and a bunch of other big fests, new album coming out, nothing on their tour after mid-August.  Sweet!  Also, hue radio uptick in the past month on KUTX - makes me feel like this one is a definite lock.
• The Raconteurs.  Have a big gap in their tour from mid-September to mid-October, and the show they have in Second Weekend is in Oklahoma, so they could make that trip very easily.  Double sweet!  [EDIT] big radio uptick on KUTX and Sun Radio recently, so I'm feeling even more strongly about this one now.
• Billie Eilish.  Played Lolla last year, playing big festivals this year, big buzz for her.  Her touring ends on Sept. 21, so this feels like a lock.  This would also make my kids freak out and want to come to the Fest again this year, which is unfortunate for me...
• Gary Clark Jr.  Hometown guy, supporting new music, playing Lolla?  For sure.
• Wilco.  I kept hearing Son Volt and Wilco on the radio, at a rate higher than I would expect.  And it looks like they get tons of play on both Sun and KUTX all the time anyway, but then I took a look at their touring schedule, and they are on a European leg of a tour, that ends on September 28 in London.  HEY NOW!  Jeff Tweedy's personal tour dates end in August.  So I'm making the call - this feels like a very ACL-style artist who would fit well, and the radio is playing the crap out of them without any other upcoming show.
• Lizzo.  Dude.  Her new album is so freaking funny and I dig it.  On a monster tour, that happens to have perfect gaps for each weekend of ACL - she plays Louisville on 10/2, then other Midwest shows on 10/8, 10/9, and 10/10, but then nothing during the 10/11 to 10/13 second weekend.  yep.
• Courtney Barnett.  Lots of Fests, including Lolla Berlin, and her tour list ends in mid-September.  Feels good, and I'd love to see her again, but I just don't feel as sure with her as I do with the others up above.  [EDIT] Just moved her up here to the lock space - she's had a big recent radio uptick on KUTX that doesn't seem attributable to any other Austin show or new music.
• Tierra Whack.  Playing Lolla and her last show is in September.  Up and coming rapper, easy fit for the medium type portion of the poster.
• Dean Lewis. Playing real Lolla and Berlin Lolla, which is a few weeks before ACL.  Up and coming guy who makes sense.
• Lauren Daigle.  Has shows that could fit ACL perfectly into the space, with a stop in Tulsa, OK on the Friday of first weekend, then a date in Southaven, MS on the Thursday before weekend two.  Another up and comer.
• Judah and the Lion.  I know, you likely give two shits about these low level bands, but if I figured out they will be here, I want to up my average on my correct predictions.  Playing Lolla and then perfect gap in their touring schedule for us.
• Sigrid.  Cancelled her ACL show last year and is playing Lolla.
• Devon Gilfillian bunch of radio plays plus a tour that ends just in time for ACL.  Played here in 2017, just played Stubb's with Brothers Osborne in March.
• Haelos.  Dropped out of ACL in 2016, recent radio uptick, sold out a show in Austin earlier this year.
• Ryan Bingham.  Big recent radio uptick and the tour ends right before ACL.

Medium Level Fire:

• The Strokes.  Playing Lolla and their tour ends in California on September 27.  Seems to fit really well.  (although my brain also says uggggggghhhhhh).  [EDIT] moved this one down out of the lock it in category, because KUTX didn't play a single Strokes song in either of the two samples I took.  Feels like that is a bad sign for them to be hot enough to come back to ACL.
• Post Malone.  I mean, don't get me wrong, I don't want for this to happen.  But he played Lolla last year to massive crowds and has never played ACL, and his tour is done in late August.  Feels like a fit, even though my heart won't let me move it up to lock it down groups because my soul will die if he is the remaining big headliner I haven't come up with.
• Swedish House Mafia.  Their tour goes through Sept. 20, which gives them plenty of time to come be the big EDM headliner.
• Sheck Wes.  I'm still feeling this one, although he is playing Austin 360 on May 4, but he is such a small fry artists that I don't think C3 would block him from also playing ACL.  MO BAMBA!

I Have No Clue (These are the bands I looked at and have no good reason to say either yes or no, but I can't count them out):

• Flume.  More EDM for the kiddies to enjoy.  They are headlining Lolla, so they seem like a good guess, but their tour dies out in mid-August and I don't even know who they are, so I'm lukewarm on it.
• The Cure.  They announced a tour of a bunch of festivals this year, which sounded promising, but zero of them are in the US and the tour peters out in late August.  They could, but should they?  KUTX played them three times in the past three days, so they are getting recent airplay, but they also played them twice in last month's dataset from three days.  So, that doesn't seem like hype, just seems like playing classic tunes...  No help.
• KISS.  I mean, this would be a little bit weird, but they have a two month break that just happens to straddle the ACL weekends, between Sept. 16 in Oakland and Nov. 16 in Australia.  So it definitely fits, and they could be the old guy nostalgia act.  They do come to San Antonio in September though, so that might be too close?  Still feel medium about this one.
• Queen & Adam Lambert.  Their tour has a weirdly huge gap, between August 23 and Feb. 5, 2020, so they definitely could fit us in, but they'll be in Dallas and Houston in July, and that gap looks more like a winter break than hiding space for ACL.  Very lukewarm on this one now despite feeling it previously.  Even more lukewarm when I see that KUTX has only played one track from Queen recently.
• Madonna.  I know that I had previously said a definite no to her, but then she released a new single on Spotify and the third grader still inside of me got all pumped up about seeing Madonna.  Take me right back to Harper Washburn's birthday party in 1984 or so.  But she still has zero tours/shows announced, so even with the taste of new music that could signal a show, I can't actually predict this one.
• Mumford & Sons.  Could fit us in, with the end of their tour on Sept. 15, but not sure they would come back to ACL with no new (good) music or hype around them.

Nope Groups (These Bands are otherwise occupied or I otherwise say no for sure):

• Dead & Co. Their tour now continues right on through both weekend, and in Europe, so a big fat bowl of nope.
• Muse.  Negatory good buddy.  Playing in South America all around both weekends.
• Fleetwood Mac.  Nah.  Earlier, their tour ended in Sept., but now it plows right through both weekends of the Fest.
• Foo Fighters.  No.  They added some new dates to the tour in Colombia and Costa Rica, during weekend one, so not going to happen.
• Mitski.  Although she is playing Lolla, she'll be in Austin already on June 4, which seems to close to the festival dates to make sense.
• Soccer Mommy.  Playing shows with Vampire Weekend that include the Thus. before and Sunday of First Weekend, so feels like a no now.
• Jade Bird.  Now she has shows in England on the second weekend, so maybe she comes to weekend one, but I don't see it making sense to name her when she'll be across the pond for all of weekend two.

I'm still holding out hope that somehow C3 just says to hell with it about people who are already playing Austin around the fest, and they bring in The Black Keys and Vampire Weekend as two main headliners.  And then they add Springsteen and Pearl Jam!  And then NWA reunites!  And same with R.E.M. and Rage Against the Machine and Oasis and Led Zeppelin and Jimi Hendrix and its the greatest festival of all time forever.  Either way, I'm now fully excited about the announcement and getting started on listening to the new tunes.