Last year, it popped into my head because I had noticed that the few radio stations I listen to had been playing the hell out of The National. Go check this post if you want to see my thoughts on it last year. Sadly, the KUTX archive is still jacked up, and won't provide real results when you search by artist. Instead, I had to collect a few days worth of their playlists (4/21, 4/22, and 4/24 - skipped a day b/c their 4/22 and 4/23 playlists are currently identical), and then compare those to their playlists from a month ago. Let's see what we find out.
These are the artists who are getting a ton of play all of a sudden, who were not being played a month ago. Means I leave out things that are similarly played in both data sets, like Adia Victoria and Moving Panoramas and Beck and Cage the Elephant and Spoon (those last three also have an upcoming July show and will not be at ACL) or Gary Clark Jr (kind of a core KUTX artist and a new album out) and Kacey Musgraves and Radiohead. The National, my inspiration last year, just gets played 24/7 now with 9 plays in the old set and 9 plays in the new set. Three times a day, man.
Might mean nothing, but we'll investigate a little bit.
- Al Green. Would be dope to have him at ACL, but he had a show here in Austin on 4/24, so I think this uptick in plays was solely to get people hyped for that show.
- Andrew Bird went the wrong way, from 10 plays to 4 plays. Nah, he's playing Stubb's on 10/30/19.
- Beruit went from zero to 4. Same thing, they are playing Austin on 11/21/19, so nope this this one as well.
- Better Oblivion Community Center dropped off (and they just had a show in April). No.
- Bob Mould went from 2 to 5. So that is more than once a day on average for a guy without a new album. But, he just played the Mohawk on April 3. No other shows on his calendar until November, so I'll go with a no on him (although if he would come back and play Sugar from start to finish, I'd snort a ghost pepper).
- Springsteen went from 1 to 3. LOCK IT IN BABY!!!! Just kidding. Dude isn't touring this year. No.
- Calexico & Iron & Wine went from zero to seven - so that is interesting. Iron & Wine, by itself, went up from 1 to 2, so that isn't saying much. Nah, they are playing a show at Stubb's September 28. Not happening.
- Childish Gambino only went from 1 to 2. But I still think he's going to make it up to us... Yes.
- Courtney Barnett goes from 2 to 7. Another interesting one. I've predicted that she will come, and that uptick sure seems to lend support to that guess. Yes.
- Deerhunter from 5 to 7, so not that big a shift. When I saw that KUTX was playing Deerhunter more than once a day right now, I thought this one would become a lock, but if they were playing the hell out of them last month too, then maybe not. Ah, they have a show on April 29 at the Mohawk, so those plays can just be KUTX hyping up that show. Going with No.
- Devon Gilfillian. He goes from zero plays to eleven. Something is up there... He just played Stubb's on 4/10/19, with the Brothers Osborne. Hmmm. But they're still playing the crap out of him, even after that show? And his tour shows that his last show on the current tour is on September 22? This one feels legit. The guy plays a C3-sponsored club in April and then is free after late Sept.? He also played ACL Fest in 2017, so the C3 people already know him? Lock it in.
- What about Brothers Osborne? Nah, they're playing shows during both weekends.
- Girlpool is getting a lot of play, but no major uptick, just 4 to 5. But for a band I've never heard of, that seems like a lot of spins. Aaaaand it's because they have a show at the Mohawk on May 7. No.
- Interesting how many times I've mentioned the Mohawk here - I wonder if they have some special deal with KUTX to get their medium-level bands hyped before shows?
- Grupo Fantasma went from 2 to 10, let's check them out. They just played The Mohawk (!?!) at the end of March. And they are playing The Little Darlin' (which I've never even heard of?) on April 27 - this weekend. I'll say no.
- Haelos goes from 3 to 8. Were supposed to come to ACL in 2016, but skipped the Fest instead. Played a show at ACL 3Ten in March. Their tour ends at the end of August, so feels like a good possibility. I'll move them into the medium fire zone.
- Another interesting one, and part of what made me think of this project again, is the Son Volt, Wilco, Jeff Tweedy, Tweedy family. I kept hearing Son Volt and Wilco on the radio, at a rate higher than I would expect. Old data set is 8 plays (Jeff Tweedy 6, Billy Bragg w/ Wilco 1, Son Volt 1, Wilco 0) and new set of plays is also 8 (Jeff Tweedy 2, Billy Bragg/Wilco 0, Wilco 4, Tweedy 1, Son Volt 1). SO maybe those guys are just core artists for KUTX. But I also looked at yesterday's Sun Radio playlist (for the limited time it is available, very annoying) and they played Wilco twice in the periods I looked at.
- I love Son Volt, so I was kind of hoping they would be the ones to come, but I think they are still dead.
- BUT, Wilco is on a European leg of a tour, that ends on September 28 in London. HEY NOW!
- Jeff Tweedy's personal tour dates end in August.
- That sure feels like a good call. Very Austin City Limits-style artist, lots of recent radio play, tour fits perfectly? Yes.
- Karen O with Danger Mouse is getting a ton of plays in both sets - 9 then and 8 now. But no shows on the interest scheduled, so I'd guess they just like this song a lot. No.
- LCD Soundsystem jumped up from 1 to 4. Not touring. No.
- Local Natives from zero to 3. Stubb's on June 15. No.
- But Lizzo from 4 to 1? That seems weird. I still think she's coming.
- R.E.M. went from zero to 4!!! It's finally fucking happening! This is a sign from GOD HIMSELF!!!!! (sadly, just kidding. Everything you see when you google "rem reunion" is extremely negative. Which is the worst thing ever).
- Queen with only one play - sure doesn't seem like they are getting hyped if this theory is true. Feeling more like a no now. The Strokes with zero plays...
- Ryan Bingham with about 2 plays a day? Seems interesting. Has played Austin a few times recently, but right now he is in Europe, and his tour ends on Sept,. 13 in Telluride. Sure, I'll say yes.
- I'd say the same about Sharon Van Etten, except she came here last year... She is up to 10 plays in three days? Weird. No.
- Steve Gunn (?!?) up from 1 to 4. Yeah, just played Barracuda on the 24th. No.
- Huge uptick for Tame Impala, from 1 play last month to twelve plays this month. Part of that can be attributed to a new single or two coming out, but that is a huge jump. Lots of people have new music come out and don't get that big of an uptick. Yes, I still believe, even more so now.
- Interestingly, Talking Heads went from 1 to 5. But Byrne was here last year and the band is still broken up. That one has to be random.
- Telekinesis, who I don't know at all, are getting daily plays now and only one in the old data set. Just played ACL 3Ten on April 24, so I'll attribute this uptick to that show. No.
- The Black Keys are in crazy heavy rotation in both data sets, but that is likely because Lo/Hi is a freaking fantastic jam and it must be played every time I'm in the car or else an angel dies. Also, they have a show in November (that I just bought tickets to!) so they are not coming to ACL.
- I got excited when I first looked at the recent playlist data, because The Cure is in there three times. They played "Boys Don't Cry" (which rules), "Love Cats" (which blows), and "Why Can't I Be You?" (which again, rules). That seems like a lot for a band with no music, right? BUT they also played two of their songs during the period last month, so that isn't such a good indicator after all. I'll keep them in the I Don't Know category.
- The Dream Syndicate has four plays in each of the data sets? Isn't that an old 80's band? Nope, they are playing other shows during second weekend, so I'll assume they aren't just coming for weekend one.
- The Raconteurs goes from zero plays in the March set to four plays in the April set. Also, they've been playing Jack White (x1), White Stripes (x3) and Dead Weather (x1) this month when those weren't getting that play last month. Feeling really good about this prediction. Sun Radio also played them yesterday. Yes.
- The Well rockets up the play count, but they also are the KUTX artists of the month, so nothing interesting there. Except they are kinda kick ass sludgy rock...
- Vampire Weekend is getting heavy play (x7), but they also got that last month, and are playing shows in Austin before ACL so they're not coming.
- Also, KUTX played Midnight Oil one time! IT'S SO FUCKING ON!!! Just wait until they invite me on stage and I can belt out "Red Sails in the Sunset," and every panty in the audience will just drop to the ground in one swoop! KUTX also played Hendrix! And U2! And Tom Petty! We're getting them all!
OK, so what did I learn from all of this? That I have too much spare time? Assuredly so. You should see the page of notes I made from looking at this stuff last night after the kids went to bed. Looks like some creepy, stalker Beautiful Mind shit. I think this supports some of the people I was already guessing, like Tame Impala, The Raconteurs, and Courtney Barnett. But it negatively reflects on some of my other predictions like Lizzo. New stuff I'm going to predict now - Devon Gilfillian (who sounds like an Irish Riverdancer, not an African American soul singer), Wilco, Haelos, and Ryan Bingham. No help for The Cure and Childish Gambino and Queen and The Strokes.
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