Another Angle at Predicting ACL 2016: Critical Darlings

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

The best article and spreadsheet I ever read about critical reviews of music is the Rock Critic Hivemind article that came out in 2014.  Here is the spreadsheet.  I've talked about this article a lot. If I had all the time in the world, I'd love to make something similar every year, but I just have to hope that guy does it again someday.  And guess what?  After spending like an hour inspecting Rob Mitchum's Twitter feed, I found that he did, indeed do it again.  I love him.  Although he loves Phish more than I find healthy.  Here is the 2015 list.

So, I think this shows a real, solid gathering of the critical darlings for a year, so I think it makes sense as a gauge.  There might be one critics list that would better match up to ACL, but which one?  The Chronicle?  Pitchfork?  I dunno, that is an even deeper dive that should be reserved for another time.  

I'll look at 2014 and 2015, and in each one I'll check the year of that great album and the year after.  And I'm sticking to just the top 30 in each year, just because I have to limit this and not entirely lose my eyesight or fire up carpal tunnel.  Here is what I found:

With regard to the 2014 Top 30 Albums:

• Some top artists in the year end rankings got no big festival sets.  Sharon Van Etten, Aphex Twin, and Sun Kill Moon were all among the top ten of the critical darling list, but none played the big 4 festivals in 2014/2015.  Eight of the top 30 total artists had no show at any of the big 4 in either 2014 or 2015.
• In 2014, 10 of the top 30 2014 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.  So only 1/3, which isn't a real strong correlation.
• 5 of those 10 were booked for ACL, though, which is strong. (St. Vincent, Mac DeMarco, Spoon, Lana Del Rey, and Real Estate). ACL had the closest connection, as Lolla, Coach, and Roo each only had 3.  
• The next year, in 2015, 18 of the top 30 2014 artists scored a big Four Festival slot - a much stronger connection.  So maybe the critical love has to percolate a year before the artists can get booked to play a Fest.
• However, only two of those came to ACL (Sturgill and Run the Jewels), which is kind of crazy. The runaway winner for the Festival booking last year's top album artists was Cochella, with 14 of the 18 playing Coachella.  That looks like a strong connection. Lolla had five and Roo had ten.

With regard to the 2015 Top 30 Albums:

• More of the top ten got shows, as only two (9th place Sleater-Kinney and 10th place Bjork) didn't have any festival dates in 2015 or 2016 (assuming that ACL doesn't book them).  Ten total artists in the 2015 top 30 were blanked for big four festival dates in 2015/2016.
• In 2015, again, 10 of the top 30 2015 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.
• However, this time, 7 of those 10 were booked to ACL (Tame Impala, Father John Misty, Vince Staples, Kurt Vile, Drake, Alabama Shakes, Chance the Rapper (Donnie Trumpet album)).  So even better than the year before.  Coach had 5, Roo had 4, and Lolla had 3.  So maybe ACL is the festival with the better chance to book artists with excellent albums of the year because, as just about the last 'fest of the year, they get more time to figure out what's good and plug it in.  Or maybe the booking people are just better.
• In 2016, 15 of the top 30 2015 artists are currently on tap for a big four festival show. Slightly down from the year before, but still 50% is pretty strong.
• We don't know how many of those will make ACL's lineup, but how about we use this to make some guesses?

We likely won't see repeats of the seven who were here in 2015, so we'd be looking at the following potential matches (leaving out doubtful stuff - Carlie Rae Jepsen - and things I've never heard of - Oneohtrix):

• Kendrick Lamar.  Lamar doesn't have a current tour, he is playing London on 7/2 and New Orleans on 7/3.  So he's available.  And I think he'd make sense for a headliner slot as the rap artist for the year.  Last year's album was huge, he hasn't played ACL in a few years, and his Grammy performance was a huge hit.  Makes sense.
• Sufjan Stevens.  The kind of artist who would come to ACL.  No real tour, but his website shows several other festival dates, including Sasquatch, Pitchfork, Panorama, and Outside Lands.  And he just played Coachella.  Nothing on the schedule after August 7, so he's got the time.  And he hasn't been to ACL in the past five years.  So, another that makes sense.
• Courtney Barnett.  Please?  Pretty please?  I was surprised that she didn't show up on the schedule last year after her album got a ton of love and she had a great showing at SXSW.  She's playing the Levitation Festival in Austin this weekend, which unfortunately weighs against her coming back to Austin again, but her schedule ends in mid July.  So maybe she'll go home, eat some ramen and recharge, and then come jam for me.  Sadly, I'll say I doubt it.
• Jamie xx.  Played Roo and Coach last year, and is scheduled to play a bunch of minor festivals this year (Sasquatch, Governors, Free Press, and a bunch in Europe). Schedule peters out in mid-August, so he's got the time.  Sounds right, although I don't much care for the tunes.
• Grimes.  Playing Coachella and Lolla this year, and everyone seemed to love her album from last year.  Feels almost certain to me.  However, she is playing the Austin 360 amphitheatre in May, so maybe she wouldn't come right back?  Her schedule is empty after the FYF Festival in late August, so she has time.  I'm thinking no.
• Sleater-Kinney.  Zero current tour dates, played a tour behind their most recent album last year.  Carrie Brownstein is probably back to Portlandia now.  Kind of doubt this one.
• Bjork.  She apparently cancelled her 2015 tour behind Vulnicura, and I find no tour dates on the web.  I'd love to finally get to see her (since I had to sell my ACL tickets the last time she came because my jerk brother got married that weekend), but I don't think it is going to happen.
• Joanna Newsom.  I only see one date on her current "tour," as most of the tour was done by April 3.  She didn't come to Texas, so maybe?  I don't know, she's not playing any other big fests, and I'm just not feeling it.
• Future.  <<Lurchgrumble>>  He's "headlining" Lollapalooza, so he's got a pretty good shot of showing up here as well.  Although, he's playing Austin with Drake in tow in July, so maybe that is close enough that he shouldn't come back again?  His tour ends September 18 in Canada, so he's got the time to come back and mumber some AutoTune platitudes at us.  I think no.
• Kamasi Washington.  Guy plays some future funk sax for Kendrick and gets to make the rounds to Roo and Coach, but he isn't playing Lolla, so maybe not.  And he has a show in San Diego on Friday, October 7, so if he can come, it wouldn't likely be for second weekend?  I guess I'm assuming that he travels by covered wagon and he couldn't get here by Saturday or Sunday of that weekend, but it just doesn't seem all that likely.
• Jason Isbell.  Jerk.  I figured he'd be here for sure, but his schedule shows that he is playing something called Roots n Blues n BBQ Festival in Missouri the same weekend as ACL weekend One.  So doesn't look like he'll be here.
• Deerhunter.  Last date on their calendar is August 20, so they have the time.  They played the Mohawk a few weeks ago, so I'm kind of doubting they'll be back.
• Blur.  Doubt it.  No dates on their touring calendar, and it seems like I've recently read that Albarn is doing more stuff with his other projects.  I wanted them to come last year, would have been a fun nostalgia show combined with good new tunes from the Magic Whip.
• Wilco.  They are currently touring in support of the new Star Wars album, and their schedule has a big gap between August 30 and October 27, so they have the time to come.  They used to be an ACL mainstay, so this makes some sense for the 15th Anniversary of ACL Fest.
• Beach House.  They just played the Moody Theatre on April 11, so maybe they wouldn't come right back.  That being said, they played Coachella, will play Pitchfork, and FYF, and their schedule is open after Augist 28.  So it could happen.  
• Miguel.  Playing Bonnaroo, Pitchfork, Outside Lands, and nothing on his schedule after August 7, so he has the time and the festival chops.  I have no clue.  Doesn't feel like a match for this festival, but neither do any of the other R&B or EDM types that end up here now.

We are getting close to the actual announcement in two more weeks.  I think I've got one or two other angles to consider about predictions, but I'm looking forward to the end of the suspense and just knowing the lineup!