One simple comparison in previous years has been to look at the Lollapalooza lineup for the year. Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups. In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows.
The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:
2012:
2014:
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Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith.
Paul McCartney
|
no
|
Metallica
|
no
|
Florence & the Machine
|
yes
|
Sam Smith
|
no
|
Bassnectar
|
yes
|
The Weeknd
|
yes
|
Alt-J
|
yes
|
Alabama Shakes
|
yes
|
Of Monsters and Men
|
yes
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Then 2011 and 2013 show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:
2011:
Eminem
|
no
|
Foo Fighters
|
no
|
Coldplay
|
yes
|
Muse
|
no
|
My Morning Jacket
|
yes
|
Deadmau5
|
no
|
A Perfect Circle
|
no
|
Cee Lo Green
|
yes
|
Damian Marley & Nas
|
yes
|
2013:
The Cure
|
yes
|
Mumford & Sons
|
no
|
the Killers
|
no
|
Nine Inch Nails
|
no
|
Phoenix
|
yes
|
the Postal Service
|
no
|
Vampire Weekend
|
yes
|
New Order
|
no
|
Queens of the Stone Age
|
yes
|
So, what do we know because of all of that? At a minimum, you can assume that at least 4 of the top nine artists on the Lolla poster will be in Austin in the fall. And we have some precedence for an even closer relationship. So, how likely are we to see the top nine on the Lolla poster for this year?
Radiohead: Putting out a new album soon. Currently on tour, with no conflicts for the ACL dates and two sold out shows in Mexico during the week between the two weekends of ACL. Playing some other festivals (Lolla, Outside Lands, German Lolla, European, Japanese, and Canadian ones). Haven't been to ACL in years, but they are a no doubt exciting headliner. I feel like this one is a lock.
Red Hot Chili Peppers: Playing so many festivals, per their touring schedule. Their tour ends in August, so there is nothing in the schedule that tends to show that they will be in central Texas in early October. Last came to ACL in 2012, and they also are a no doubt headliner. They have a new album in the mixing stage right now (and hey, guess when their last one came out? August 26, 2011, after Lolla had already happened that year, after the ACL lineup had been set, but just in time for them to play Lolla and ACL in 2012). I'm feeling pretty strong about this one coming to Austin as well.
LCD Soundsystem: They are playing every single festival in the entire world this year, including Jimmy Grimaldi's bar mitzvah. Strangely, the schedule on his website doesn't include Lolla, but LCD is definitely on the poster. The last of the scheduled shows is on September 2, so he's got the time to be in Austin in late September and early October. Hard to imagine that he would play the other big three, plus many many others, without showing up here. I believe.
J. Cole: Playing both Lolla and Bonnaroo, but it looks like his tour is mostly done. No dates after July's Lolla show. He "played" Austin in March for a Democratic National Committee fundraiser with President Obama during SXSW, but I don't count that as a real show. And he was here at the Austin 360 in August 2015. His last album was released December 9, 2014, so he doesn't have new music to pimp (unless you count a live version of that last album that just came out). However, there are rumors that he might be about to release a collaboration album with Kendrick Lamar, which would be pretty big news, and since I think Kendrick makes sense as a headliner for ACL, maybe they come do a joint show together? I'd tend to say that he isn't a big enough artists to get a headliner slot without brand new music out there, but I guess he got the Lolla headliner spot, so maybe he is bigger than I think. My gut is telling me no.
Lana Del Rey: After her Lolla headlining date, she'll also play Outside Lands and a few other smaller fests, but all dates on her calendar are done by September 4. Her most recent album, surprisingly not terrible, came out in September 2015, so I she still has new music to tour behind. She was just here in 2014, which seems a little recent for an artists who shouldn't be a headliner in the first place. <siiiighhh> I guess she could be coming back to ACL. Gut is telling me yes.
Future: <super long, intentionally audible sigh> This feels inevitable. Although, I'm not sure why, since he is playing Austin with Drake in tow in July. Normally, I would not expect an artist to have a big concert in town just a few months before the Festival dates, so he might not be coming back. But my gut wants me to say yes. His tour ends September 18 in Canada, so he's got the time to come back and mumble some AutoTune platitudes at us. Because of the July concert, I'm going to say no, even if my gut is saying yes.
Ellie Goulding: Yes. She is playing all of the other big three. Although, as part of her massive tour supporting her album from last year, she had a stop in "Austin" at the Cedar Park center this April, so maybe that militates against her coming right back? Because she is playing all the other fests and has a new (11/6/15) album out, I'm thinking yes.
Major Lazer. Well, they were here in 2014, and that was right after they had played Coach and Lolla the year before, while this year they are playing both C and L. So that makes some sense that they would follow those two fests with another appearance at ours. They are playing a bunch of festivals (smaller ones all summer long), including Lolla Germany, and then they are done as of September 11 on their current calendar. I think there is a good chance that they will come back to ACL. And I still won't care.
Disclosure. Nope. I'd love to see them and am kind of bummed I missed them last year, but I don't see any reason they would come back for a second year in a row. They have time on their calendar, but I'm still going with no.
LCD Soundsystem: They are playing every single festival in the entire world this year, including Jimmy Grimaldi's bar mitzvah. Strangely, the schedule on his website doesn't include Lolla, but LCD is definitely on the poster. The last of the scheduled shows is on September 2, so he's got the time to be in Austin in late September and early October. Hard to imagine that he would play the other big three, plus many many others, without showing up here. I believe.
J. Cole: Playing both Lolla and Bonnaroo, but it looks like his tour is mostly done. No dates after July's Lolla show. He "played" Austin in March for a Democratic National Committee fundraiser with President Obama during SXSW, but I don't count that as a real show. And he was here at the Austin 360 in August 2015. His last album was released December 9, 2014, so he doesn't have new music to pimp (unless you count a live version of that last album that just came out). However, there are rumors that he might be about to release a collaboration album with Kendrick Lamar, which would be pretty big news, and since I think Kendrick makes sense as a headliner for ACL, maybe they come do a joint show together? I'd tend to say that he isn't a big enough artists to get a headliner slot without brand new music out there, but I guess he got the Lolla headliner spot, so maybe he is bigger than I think. My gut is telling me no.
Lana Del Rey: After her Lolla headlining date, she'll also play Outside Lands and a few other smaller fests, but all dates on her calendar are done by September 4. Her most recent album, surprisingly not terrible, came out in September 2015, so I she still has new music to tour behind. She was just here in 2014, which seems a little recent for an artists who shouldn't be a headliner in the first place. <siiiighhh> I guess she could be coming back to ACL. Gut is telling me yes.
Future: <super long, intentionally audible sigh> This feels inevitable. Although, I'm not sure why, since he is playing Austin with Drake in tow in July. Normally, I would not expect an artist to have a big concert in town just a few months before the Festival dates, so he might not be coming back. But my gut wants me to say yes. His tour ends September 18 in Canada, so he's got the time to come back and mumble some AutoTune platitudes at us. Because of the July concert, I'm going to say no, even if my gut is saying yes.
Ellie Goulding: Yes. She is playing all of the other big three. Although, as part of her massive tour supporting her album from last year, she had a stop in "Austin" at the Cedar Park center this April, so maybe that militates against her coming right back? Because she is playing all the other fests and has a new (11/6/15) album out, I'm thinking yes.
Major Lazer. Well, they were here in 2014, and that was right after they had played Coach and Lolla the year before, while this year they are playing both C and L. So that makes some sense that they would follow those two fests with another appearance at ours. They are playing a bunch of festivals (smaller ones all summer long), including Lolla Germany, and then they are done as of September 11 on their current calendar. I think there is a good chance that they will come back to ACL. And I still won't care.
Disclosure. Nope. I'd love to see them and am kind of bummed I missed them last year, but I don't see any reason they would come back for a second year in a row. They have time on their calendar, but I'm still going with no.
2 comments:
Came across your blog while searching for rumors.
Nice analysis. A couple of things...
Ive been keeping up with the rumors on the subreddit, and Im seeing Elton John mentioned pretty strongly. Apparently he has a Louisiana date in-between the 2 weekends of ACL. He's your "Legacy" perhaps?
Radiohead, RHCP, LCD, and Elton are seemingly 4 of the 6...leaving 2 spots...speculation being one of Kanye, Kendrick, or J. Cole...and one of Major Lazer, Jack U, Flume.
Lastly, remove one of the above and plug in either Ellie Goulding or LDR.
Thats what I have seen...so you're pretty on target.
Weird to be within a week of the release of the line up and not seen much in the way of leaks and speculation though, eh?
Thanks for your comment. I haven't looked at the Reddit stuff but am glad to hear that I am maybe on point. Elton sounds like a good candidate with that gap between the two ACL weekends and a new album out to support, I had dismissed him before as unlikely but you may be right. Kanye would be awesome, and I see that he is starting a tour in September, so that might work.
Agreed about the lack of leaks, it is a little bit amazing that no one is leaking the real deal lineup to the public. But then again, if it leaked, I couldn't have the fun of all of this sleuthing.
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