Another Angle at Predicting ACL 2016: Big Tours

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

After a few recent posts, I got to thinking about what it is that I expect to see in a festival lineup.  If I am disappointed by the top lines of most posters the days (and I am), then what the hell do I want from C3?  Can I ever be satisfied?  Probably not.

But is it possible to predict who will play the festival lineups (or at least the top line stars) based on objective facts?  I think the lineup must include a few no doubt stars.  Even if I don't like them (Avicii, looking at you), at least it needs to be someone huge who would sell out an arena on their own.  Having people like Future or J. Cole on this year's Lolla top lines just doesn't cut it for me.  I know those guys are hot, right this second, in the rap world, but neither is established enough to deserve top billing.  I just went and looked at Future's upcoming shows, and he plays a 2,500 "seat" venue in Vegas next month and tickets are still available.  Really?  That guy gets top billing at one of the preeminent festivals?  They belong on the 4th or 5th line with G-Eazy and Chance the Rapper.  So, how to we determine who qualifies as a top line star?

So for my first stab at this (I've got a few others in the hopper, and this one got insanely long), I look at top grossing touring acts. Interesting factoids about looking back at the last five years of the top grossing tours:

1. There is one artist who makes all five of the annual lists.  Who do you think that is? Taylor Swift? Wrong, four years but not on there in 2014.  Rolling Stones?  Nope, not in 2012. Some dude named Andre Rieu, who apparently plays the violin very well. And made FLIPPING 256 MILLION DOLLARS DOING IT!!!  I'm teaching the kids how to play violins.  Jeez.
2. The country stars freaking bank.  Kenny Chesney ($336 over the past five years), Luke Bryan ($162 million in the past three years), Jason Aldean ($166 million), Brad Paisley, Tim McGraw - even Shania Twain and George Strait are in these lists of top grossers.  Just get a backing band of generic rockers, write some lyrics about partying and hookin' up in the bed of your pickup, and CASH THOSE CHECKS!

After reviewing the top grossing touring artists, I don't think this will be a good measurement of people who should headline ACL.  You can put almost all of these artists into three categories:

1. Major pop stars: Taylor Swift, One Direction, Maroon 5, Katy Perry, Justin Timberlake, Jay Z, Rihanna, Beyonce, Gaga, Beiber, Britney, Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, Kylie Minogue, Miley Cyrus, P!nk, Usher, Take That.  I guess Enrique Iglesias comes in here too.
2. Nostalgia acts or classics: Rolling Stones, Madonna, Fleetwood Mac, Eagles, Billy Joel, Elton John, Neil Diamond, Grateful Dead, Barbara Streisand, Bon Jovi, Journey, Roger Waters, Van Halen, Sade, Rod Stewart, Paul McCartney, New Kids on the Block, etc.
3. Country stars: Toby Keith, Shania Twain, Rascal Flatts, Luke Bryan, Lady Antebellum, Kenny Chesney, Tim McGraw, George Strait, etc.

I'm not looking for those folks to be the headliners.  None of those major pop star or country star types have been headliners to the four major festivals in the past five years.  Some could be fun - TayTay or Queen Bey, maybe Bruno Mars or Ed Sheeran, definitely George Strait - but most of those just wouldn't be welcomed at a festival like ACL.  But, some of those classics would be welcomed with open arms - Stones, Dead, Madonna, Elton - those could top a lineup easily.

Others on the top grossing tours lists don't fall into those easy categories, but it is usually folks who have a big year with a big tour - Foo Fighters in 2015, U2 in 2015 and 2011, Coldplay in 2012, Chili Peppers in 2012, Depeche Mode in 2013.  It is those folks, with the big touring year corresponding with the festival year, who realistically make sense to play ACL.

I've now spent way too long comparing the new spreadsheet I've made of top grossers to the actual lineups from the big four Festivals, looking to see if you can tie a mega concert tour to a festival performance in the same or subsequent year.  Here are the artists who were on both lists (in a top Four Festival lineup from 2011 to 2015 and also a top tour grosser during that period):

• Billy Joel played Bonnaroo in 2015 and had a major tour spanning both 2014 and 2015 ($67 and $72 million, respectively).
• The Grateful Dead had a major "tour" in 2015 (well, three shows anyway that grossed $52 million) and a portion of the band is playing Bonnaroo 2016.
• U2 played Coachella in 2014, but had big tours in 2011 and 2015. The 2015 tour didn't start until May 2015, so I don't think you can call this a correlation.
• Foo Fighters played ACL in 2015 with a major tour ($55 million).  They also gigged Lollapalooza in 2011 in the midst of another tour (supporting Wasting Light) that didn't crack the top 25 tour grossers for the year.
• Elton John played Bonnaroo in 2014 while he had a 2014/2015 tour that hit the top 20 for both years.  He was also top 20 on tour in 2012.
• Paul McCartney played Bonnaroo in 2013 and Lollapalooza in 2015.  He had a top grossing tour in 2013/2014, but nothing in 2015.
• Depeche Mode had a top tour in 2013/2014 ($99, $48) and played ACL in 2014.
• Drake had a top tour in 2014 and played both ACL and Coachella the next year.
• Pearl Jam had a top 25 tour in 2014 and played ACL that same year.  They are also playing Bonnaroo in 2016.  PJ also had a top 25 touring year in 2012.
• Coldplay had a top tour in 2012, but played both ACL and Lolla in 2011.  That tour (for Mylo Xyloto) actually started in October 2011, but I don't think you would be able to predict the ACL or Lolla appearances based on that future tour.
• The Red Hot Chili Peppers had a top tour in 2012, and played ACL, Bonnaroo, and Lollapalooza that year, while playing Coachella the next year.
• Lil Wayne had a top tour in 2011 and played Bonnaroo that same year.

If I could find even deeper data on touring revenue (and had days of time to screw with this stuff), like the top 50 or top 100 grossing tours, I bet we could make even more connections.

So, what does all of that mean?  

• ACL has booked five (Foos, Depeche, Drake, Pearl Jam, and Chilis) of the top grossing tour artists for festival gigs in the year of or year after their top tour.  None of those are perennial top tour type bands, which maybe tells us something.  These are established, well-known artists, who have cross-over appeal to pop radio-type crowds, but also a real fan base who digs their type of music.
• Of the 67 distinct top grossing acts of the last five years, only 12 have have played one of the major four festivals at all during that five year period.  All twelve of those except for two (U2 and Coldplay) have a match with their festival year matching a top grossing tour year range. But that still leaves 55 of the top grossing acts in the past five years who didn't play a big festival in that same five year period, at all.  

With that in mind, we need to identify the bands with big tours in 2015/2016, who are not typical touring juggernauts, and maybe we'll locate a headliner or two.

Rolling Stone's list of top 20 anticipated 2016 tours includes Tool, Muse, Madonna, Springsteen, Sabbath, Yo La Tengo, AC/DC, The Cure, Dixie Chicks, 5 Seconds of Summer, Adele, Janet Jackson, Pearl Jam.  They also include Pop/Country people (Rihanna, Beiber. Luke Bryan, Selena Gomez, Nick Jonas) and people who just played ACL (Vince Staples, Kurt Vile).  Of those, only Yo La Tengo would fail the superstar test for the top line of the lineup.  Consequence of Sound lists those, plus a bunch of smaller, weird stuff, but they also name Coldplay, Ellie Goulding, Future, Guns N Roses, Iron Maiden, Lil Wayne, and The Who.  Of those, I wouldn't consider Goulding, Future, or Iron Maiden as deserving of a headliner slot.  A million other people on the Internet give their opinion about the best upcoming concerts, but the Internet is full of moron crackpots predicting things they don't know anything about.  :)

• Adele - already coming to Erwin Center this fall, and since she can sell out any venue in .00001 seconds right now, not going to happen.
• The Cure - same, coming to the Erwin Center as part of their current tour.
• Dixie Chicks - playing the 360 amphitheater in August, so I doubt it.  Although it would be awesome!
• Tool - seems reasonable to guess they might come just because I think the crowd would be in to them.  Their tour ended in January, so no real indication from that schedule.  I'm going to say I doubt it.
• Muse - always in play for the festival.  Their manager must have dirt on one of the C's.  Their tour only goes through August 19, and none of those dates are in North America, so maybe they are just about to announce another leg of their tour that kicks off in October with ACL? Could happen.
• Madonna and Springsteen - both of these are always on my wish list, but I just doubt that either of them has any need to play this (or any) festival.  They can sell out any venue on command.
• Sabbath.  They play Dallas in September 7, and then have a huge gap in their touring schedule between September 21 and November 16.  So it is certainly possible.  This is purportedly their final tour ever, and I bet they could draw some people interested in the reality show star aspect of the band instead of just the music?  This would be a left-field choice, but it isn't that strange.
• AC/DC.  They did play a major festival last year, so the possibility exists, but their tour ends in mid-June with Europe only dates, they're already short two members, I'm just not feeling that.
• Guns N Roses.  Would be awesome!  They play Dallas and Houston in August, but no Austin or San Antonio.  Hmmm.  And then their tour ends August 22, which would give them a month to prepare for their greatest set of all time.  Or, it might give them a month to remember why they hate each others guts, count their money from the earlier tour, and decide they don't need to come to Austin after all.  This is a band that would definitely match the patterns of prior bands with big tours who ended up playing ACL.  Feels good?
• Lil Wayne.  Not feeling that.  His "tour" only has three shows left over the next several months, ending in June.  I doubt it, even if Live Nation is running his tour.
• The Who.  I guess?  Their tour ends in June.  These dudes are ancient, so they might need a few years to recuperate after playing those other shows.  Doesn't feel like someone who would play ACL.
• Duran Duran - another website listed this as a big tour for the year.  Makes good sense as one of the nostalgia acts like Billy Idol from last year.  Oh, except that they play Austin next weekend (4/22).  So I kind of doubt it.
• 5 Seconds of Summer.  Doesn't match the usual ACL artist profile.  Doubt it.  They play Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio during September, but then are in Australia for opening weekend of ACL.  Not happening.
• Janet Jackson - she apparently cancelled her tour, and doesn't sound like a normal ACL artist anyway.
• Pearl Jam.  I mean, I'd still enjoy it, even though they were just here.  Just played Dallas, are going to play Bonnaroo, Jazz Fest, and a few other, smaller fests this summer.  Their tour ends in August, so they'd have time!
• Coldplay.  I still think this one is likely.  Their big tour only hits Dallas in Texas, in August, and is done by September 3, so they've got room for us.

Of those listed here, I think Coldplay, Guns N' Roses, Muse, Sabbath, and Duran Duran are my guesses.  And although only Coldplay and GNR would get me highly excited of those five, all five would be viable choices for the top line of a major festival.  I've got more to come when I get some time over the weekend.