Another Angle at Predicting ACL 2016: Big Streaming

If you want to go back through all of my ACL predictions for 2016, go to the ACL 2016 Tab up above for the collected links.

The long-winded discussion of big touring bands really didn't net too much good information I think will lead to a good prediction of this year's lineup.  My final thoughts ended up being to (1) look for big tours of bands with crossover appeal between rock/rap and pop; and (2) the vast majority of groups who have major tours do not come to the Big Festivals.  Great.  Apply that how?

So, my second thought about looking back at last year's trends is to look at the big streaming artists to see if those correlate to who will play the festivals.  The data I could find is kind of messy, sometimes it is US-centric, other times global, other times it is based on tracks and not whole bands...

The top five Spotify artists for streams in the US in 2015 were Drake, The Weeknd, Kanye West, Ed Sheeran, and Eminem.

• Drake played ACL and Coachella in 2015.  Match.
• The Weeknd played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2015.  Match.
• Kanye played Bonnaroo in 2014, but nothing in 2015.
• Ed Sheeran has not played any of the big festivals since before 2011.
• Eminem played Lolla and ACL in 2014, but none in 2015.

Top five Spotify US artist streams in 2014 was Ed Sheeran, Eminem, Coldplay, Calvin Harris, and Katy Perry.

• Ed Sheeran has not played any of the big festivals since before 2011.
• Eminem played Lolla and ACL in 2014.  Match.
• Coldplay hasn't played any of the big 4 since 2011.
• Calvin Harris played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2014.  Match.
• Katy Perry has not played any of the big festivals between 2011 and 2016.

Top five global Spotify artist streams in 2013 were: Macklemore, Avicii, Daft Punk, Eminem, and Imagine Dragons.

• Macklemore played Roo in 2013 (and Lolla in 2012).  Match.
• Avicii played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2012, but none in 2013.
• Daft Punk.  Nope.
• Eminem played Lolla and ACL in 2014, but none in 2013.
• Imagine Dragons played Lollapalooza in 2013.  Match.

Top five global bands for streams in 2012 were: Coldplay, Maroon 5, Fun., Mumford & Sons, and Florence & the Machine.

• Coldplay played ACL and Lolla in 2011, but nothing in 2012.
• Maroon 5 has not played a festival during this time period.
• Fun. played Bonnaroo and Lollapalooza in 2012 (as well as ACL in 2013 and Coachella in 2011).  Match.
• Mumford & Sons played Bonnaroo and Coachella in 2011, and then Lolla in 2013, but nothing in 2012.
• Florence + the Machine played ACL, Coachella, and Lolla in 2012.  Match.

Most played track artists in 2011 were Foster the People, Gym Class Heroes, Adele, Rihanna, and Maroon 5.

• Foster the People played ACL, Coach, and Lolla in 2011.  Match.
• Gym Class Heroes didn't play the big 4.
• Adele has not played the festival circuit during this time period.
• Rihanna didn't play the big 4 festivals.
• Maroon 5 not on festival circuit.

So, what does all of that mean?  It means that ACL books one of the biggest streaming acts of the year, almost every year.  Foster the People in 2011, Florence in 2012, none in 2013, Eminem and Calvin Harris in 2014, and Drake and the Weeknd in 2015.  Now, how the hell do I find out who are the top streaming artists of 2016 so far?  So far, that task appears to be impossible.  Its harder than finding classic Prince songs to stream online.

Billboard has a top streaming song feature, and it shows that the top streamers so far in 2016 have been Beiber, Zayn, Rihanna, or something called Desiigner.  If you look at the Hot 100 singles from Billboard, it has those plus Adele.  None of those groups are coming to ACL.  Well, maybe Desiigner is one of the EDM/rap slots.  I dunno.

Spotify's charts only show what is the top streaming song right now, but it doesn't tell you anything for the collective year.  And the current top songs are Drake, Desiigner, Rihanna, Fifth Harmony, and Mike Posner.  They are not coming to ACL.

Crap, I don't think this measure works.  I need Spotify to provide a deeper data dive.