As I worked on this post, I just realized how excited I am about it. I love this post. I love the guessing game and murder mystery sleuthing that comes with trying to figure things out. Not as much as the Fest or anything, but this is a fun game for me.
As usual, in my opinion, the Lolla lineup is always the closest indicator of who is coming to ACL in any given year. Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups. In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows. But in some recent years, it isn't that close.
As usual, in my opinion, the Lolla lineup is always the closest indicator of who is coming to ACL in any given year. Both Festivals are booked by C3, and there is always a relationship between the two lineups. In some years, that relationship is conjoined-twin-level close between the headliner-type acts in the two shows. But in some recent years, it isn't that close.
The closest were 2012 and 2014, with 7/9 matching at the top of the bills:
2012:
2014:
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Third place was 2015, a 6 of 9 year, where we missed out on McCartney, Metallica, and Sam Smith.
Paul McCartney
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no
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Metallica
|
no
|
Florence & the Machine
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yes
|
Sam Smith
|
no
|
Bassnectar
|
yes
|
The Weeknd
|
yes
|
Alt-J
|
yes
|
Alabama Shakes
|
yes
|
Of Monsters and Men
|
yes
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Then 2011 and 2013 show that maybe the relationship isn't as strong as I thought, with only 4 out of 9 matches:
2011:
Eminem
|
no
|
Foo Fighters
|
no
|
Coldplay
|
yes
|
Muse
|
no
|
My Morning Jacket
|
yes
|
Deadmau5
|
no
|
A Perfect Circle
|
no
|
Cee Lo Green
|
yes
|
Damian Marley & Nas
|
yes
|
2013:
The Cure
|
yes
|
Mumford & Sons
|
no
|
the Killers
|
no
|
Nine Inch Nails
|
no
|
Phoenix
|
yes
|
the Postal Service
|
no
|
Vampire Weekend
|
yes
|
New Order
|
no
|
Queens of the Stone Age
|
yes
|
2016 was a little stronger than those two years, but it is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, because Lolla went to four nights last year in order to celebrate an anniversary. But you still get a 5 of 9 matchup (if you ask me), which is still a close link but not that strong:
Radiohead
|
yes
|
Mumford & Sons
|
no
|
Kendrick Lamar
|
no
|
LCD Soundsystem
|
yes
|
Major Lazer
|
yes
|
Kygo
|
no
|
Chris Stapleton
|
yes
|
The Chainsmokers
|
no
|
Flume
|
yes
|
So, what do we know because of all of that? At a minimum, you can assume that at least 4 of the top nine artists on the Lolla poster will be in Austin in the fall. And we have some precedence for an even closer relationship. So, how likely are we to see the top nine on the Lolla poster for this year? Let's dig in.
Actually, first, I want to note that I've heard about two bands that will definitely be at ACL. During my recent adventures, I ran in to people who tell me that they are in the know. Who knows, they could have been lying or wrong, but I've been told that Foster the People and Rainbow Kitten Surprise will both appear at the Fest this fall.
Now, let's dig in.
- Chance the Rapper. I talked about him already in my post about bands making the Festival rounds this year, and my thought there was a no, that he would not come to ACL. He was at ACL in 2015, so he definitely has the capacity and range to come to Austin. I saw him at that show, and as I said back then, I wanted him to be better than I thought he was. His tour schedule is up now, and it doesn't even show that he is playing Lolla (which is odd, oh wait, yes it does, if you scroll down), but it does just perfectly end right before ACL starts, with a shows in LA on 10/3 and 10/4 a few days before ACL kicks off on 10/6. So, yeah, I guess he could be one of the big headliners. But, he's going to be here in Austin to play the JMBLYA Festival on May 5 and 6. My gut tells me that he won't be back in Austin this fall. Go with your gut, young man.
No. - EDIT on 4/20/17: I actually went and researched the times that a band has played ACL twice with only one year gap in between years. Ends up that isn't that outlandish - they've done it recently with Major Lazer, Tame Impala, and the Avett Brothers. So I'm going to go against my original gut feeling and say that he is the big rap name for the year. Yes.
- The Killers. Interesting. The only festival appearance they've had (of the big four) since 2011 is Lolla in 2013. Looks like they played ACL in 2007 (when they were much more popular). Maybe they are just about to release some hugely wonderful new album, but otherwise I just can't understand why they would be the headliner for ACL. This non-official-looking website shows that they are only playing festivals this year (although none are notable fests other than Lolla). They have apparently started recording a new album back in September 2016, but their website is devoid of any sort of announcements or news. Their Twitter doesn't provide any clues. I dunno. Funny thing is that I randomly, with no evidence, named them in my original outrageously early predictions post this year. So, what the hell, sure, I say they'll put out a new album and ride into Austin on a wave of good new tunes. Let's go with it. Yes.
- Muse. I mean, I've bagged on Muse before just because they seem to be the default "We need a rock band that is big but not like crazy expensive big" choice for headliner every few years. But the actual truth is they have a pattern here: 2007, 2010, 2013. This means that they actually missed the 2016 slot in their pattern and the spell is broken and the CURSE IS OVER!!! Just kidding. I actually like Muse's music, and I've heard they put on a hell of a fun show, so it wouldn't bother me if they came back this year. However, the fly in that ointment is that they are already playing Austin this summer on June 10, and from looking at the website there, it looks like tickets are still available. Not a ringing endorsement of how we should have them back to Austin just a few months later to headline our premier festival. I'm going to go with no.
- Arcade Fire. Yes, please, and thank you. Yeah, sure, I can see it. They haven't played ACL since 2011, they've finished recording their new album and have a "massive tour" in the works, and as of now they appear to be available on the ACL dates in October after some Fests in Europe and then Lolla. Feeling good about this one, so I'll go with a hearty yes.
- The XX. I've previously looked at them with my analysis of bands making the festival rounds this year, and my conclusion at that time was that they would not come right back to Austin after their upcoming, sold-out shows at the Moody Theatre in May. And although I just said that Muse wouldn't be coming here for that exact same reason, my instinct is actually that the XX would end up coming back for ACL even though they'll be here soon. First, they have a massively popular new album out (unlike Muse), their Austin shows are sold out (unlike Muse), and C3 has already booked them to play the South American Lollas and the Chicago Lolla (unlike Muse). So I'm going to go for it and say they'll be here as well. Yes.
- Lorde. Yes. Again, I looked at her with the analysis of bands doing all the festivals this year, and decided that she was a lock to come to Austin. Not going to stray from the stance now. The last dates on her current touring calendar are early August, so she's got the time. She's started teasing her new album with a few singles on Spotify (that are pretty solid, they're no "Royals" yet, but we'll see), and the new album is out in June. Yes.
- Blink 182. Another one that seems pretty plausible, except that they are already playing the Austin 360 Ampitheater (oh no, wait, they already played it. The show was last Wednesday night). Oh wow, and then they are playing Lubbuck, Frisco, and Amarillo? Yikes. One step away from county fairs here. The tour ends in time to come back for ACL. The Austin show was apparently not sold out either, so I'm not feeling these guys getting a slot to come back for the Fest. I'll go with no.
- DJ Snake. Well, I don't know crap about this guy other than the TURNED DOWN FOR WHAT song with Lil John. Hopefully he does come along and plays at the same time as somebody I want to see and the whole crowd goes and leaves to hear his massively popular track "Let Me Love You." I think I would hate this show. Anyway, his website calendar shows that he'll play Coachella (but neglects to mention Lolla) and then several other fests, with nothing happening after July 8. He put out an album in 2016, so I guess he has new music to pimp. Ehhhh, sure, I guess he could be the big EDM headliner for this year? I'm so ignorant about that genre. I'll go with yes.
- Justice. Uhhhh, still out of my league here. I guess these dudes could share a plane with DJ Snake from France? Oh no, wait, they are currently on tour and their tour includes dates in England on Sept. 28 and 29 and France on October 9 and October 14, so they definitely wouldn't be playing second weekend. I'll go ahead and decide that they aren't going to play either weekend and give them a no.
Now for other folks on the 2017 Lolla lineup that I think will be there:
- Foster the People. As mentioned above, I heard it from a guy who heard it from his best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. So Yes.
- Big Sean. This is a total gut call. He's got a good new track on the radio right now, a new album to pimp, and ACL needs some rappers in the lineup. His tour ends in April, so it gives no indication that he would be here. Just feels right and I'll go yes.
- Ryan Adams. I haven't posted this yet, but go read through the ACL Fest Twitter account. Other than Grammy winners, there is literally one artists that they have tweeted about since last October. And that is a Throw Back Thursday post about Ryan Adams at the first ACL in 2002. He just put out a good new album, and his current tour ends 9/22/17, a few weeks before ACL. Feeling good about this one, yes.
- The Shins. A big tour that goes to Houston for Free Press, but does no other Texas dates and then ends in late August. New album that sounds to be a good one. They fit with the normal festival ethos of ACL. When I looked at it earlier for bands playing the festivals this year, I went with yes. I'll go yes.
- Glass Animals. Playing Stubb's in a few weeks (4/11/17) after playing the South America Lollas and then the real Lolla, which are all C3 booked things. Feels like a mid-tier group that will fill out the lineup. Yes.
- Spoon. Please?!? I mean, if Lolla can have Chance do a hometown show, can't we have these guys bring it for us here at home? They've got a monster tour on tap with a summer in Europe and no dates in Texas. The tour ends on 9/15, giving them plenty of time to get geared up for two massive hometown blowouts. Yes.
- Rae Sremmurd. Hottest song of last year, were here for SXSW and now get Lolla? Their tour doesn't give much in the way of clues, the tour is over by July 8 and only includes one Texas show in Dallas. But this feels like the hot group of the moment kind of thing that would do both Lolla and ACL this year. Yes.
- Rag'n'Bone Man. I feel like this dude is going to make the best of his new fame as he can to hit it running right now. He's doing a buttload of European festivals but then his tour ends on Sept. 7. So he's got the time and space to come. Feels right to me, even though this evidence is very thin. Yes.
- Car Seat Headrest. I've already predicted this one. Sticking with it, especially now that he's on the Lolla poster. Playing a ton of festivals and then done with his tour by early September. Yes.
- Warpaint. Also had them as likely because of their festival attendance this year, so I'll stick with that now that they are also on Lolla. Tour ends in July, so they've got the room to tack on ACL. Yes.
- Highly Suspect. Current tour takes them to Houston and Dallas but no central Texas dates, doing other festivals, and I'd really like to see them, so I'm going to go for it. Yes.
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