Time for some of my favorite times of the year with this blog, spending loads of wasted time studying websites, tour calendars, and making spreadsheets to see if I can guess who is going to come to ACL.
To recap my process last year, my original gut instinct band guesses in January went 50%, which is honestly better than I ever expected, with Mumford and Radiohead coming true and Coldplay and Dave Matthews being whiffs. For my final predictions, I got three of the top four right (ended up psyching myself out of my prediction for Mumford), and I got 5 of 9 right out of the top nine I picked, as well as a bunch right in the lower level predictions. Not to say I'm perfect at this, but I do think that some of the cogitating and research pays off with some predictions.
So far, we have announced lineups from Coachella and Bonnaroo, and then some lesser ones like Shaky Knees and Governor's Ball, so I'm starting to get all excited and curious to know what is coming. I'm well aware that we are months away from an announcement (May 5 for both 2015 and 2016). In the past, I felt like we had to wait for Lolla as the best guide for what ACL would look like, but now that C3 also books Bonnaroo, we'll have some information right now that we normally wouldn't, and that will be supplemented later with the Lolla news.
To recap my process last year, my original gut instinct band guesses in January went 50%, which is honestly better than I ever expected, with Mumford and Radiohead coming true and Coldplay and Dave Matthews being whiffs. For my final predictions, I got three of the top four right (ended up psyching myself out of my prediction for Mumford), and I got 5 of 9 right out of the top nine I picked, as well as a bunch right in the lower level predictions. Not to say I'm perfect at this, but I do think that some of the cogitating and research pays off with some predictions.
So far, we have announced lineups from Coachella and Bonnaroo, and then some lesser ones like Shaky Knees and Governor's Ball, so I'm starting to get all excited and curious to know what is coming. I'm well aware that we are months away from an announcement (May 5 for both 2015 and 2016). In the past, I felt like we had to wait for Lolla as the best guide for what ACL would look like, but now that C3 also books Bonnaroo, we'll have some information right now that we normally wouldn't, and that will be supplemented later with the Lolla news.
Gut Intuition:
I already kind of did this post, with my initial way too early prediction post. However, I think that at least one of those bands I made a gut call on is already out of the running, which is too bad.
I already kind of did this post, with my initial way too early prediction post. However, I think that at least one of those bands I made a gut call on is already out of the running, which is too bad.
- Green Day. This WAS my most solid guess originally, but now they are slated to come to Austin on tour in early September, so there is no way they'll also come for two weekends of ACL a few weeks later. Too bad, although I plan on buying tickets to go see the tour show.
- Metallica. Mainly, I just want them to come so badly that I'm adding them here. The only proof of anything I have here is that they just put out their new (awesome) album and are touring behind it, although no tour dates are announced beyond recent shows they just finished overseas. Also, they played Lolla two years ago without playing ACL, and now owe this to me. But now, as I have been researching the other Lolla shows (more to come on that soon, I see that they are playing the South American Lolla shows. So good chance, I think, that they'll spill over to me at ACL!
- Daft Punk. I think they are the guess every single year forever. Apparently ACL needs at least half of the bands to be EDM, so these guys would fit. SO MANY SMOKIN' HOT RUMORS! Criminy, I thought I wasted a lot of time on musical junk, but that article says that someone spent the time to apparently decode the numbers playing in some YouTube snippet video to determine the cities where the band will (likely not) play. People be crazy, yo. But I'm guessing that they get signed up to do both Lolla and ACL and the internet freaks out.
- Steve Aoki. Here is what I said before: "I don't know squat about this dude, except an article I just read about him in Rolling Stone and how his dad started Benihana and he is insanely popular for making EDM stuff and being generally happy." Nothing changed since then, but now I'm thinking that this Marshmallo guy, or maybe DJ Snake will take the other major EDM slot?
- Red Hot Chili Peppers. Feeling pretty confident about this one now that they've been announced as a headliner for Bonnaroo and they played Lollapalooza last year and they are playing Lolla Paris.
- Paul Simon. Feeling less confident about this one. I'd still love for it to happen, but I see no strong indicators out there that he'd be likely. He's not touring, his album came out last year, just don't see any reasoning to support it now.
After Live Nation purchased a majority stake in C3, I brought up the idea that maybe we could get some of the Live Nation megastars as headliners for the Fest. I was going to drop this as a section in this blog posting, just because none of these people ever actually show up at ACL, but now McCartney played Lolla two years ago and U2 is booked for Bonnaroo, so we have some real precedence for this happening.
The LiveNation website says they now manage 350 artists, so who freaking actually knows who all might be up for this. I can't find the part of their website that previously listed their "Stable of Global Icons," which I suspect means that they've outgrown the ability to list just a few artists when they have hundreds in their pocket. Hell, even just a listing of all the companies they fully or partially now own is staggeringly long. Their 2015 annual report lists U2, Fleetwood Mac, AC/DC, One Direction, Maroon 5, and Luke Bryan, while this promo page also adds in Aerosmith, Arcade Fire, Jimmy Buffett, Kings of Leon, Weezer, Jay-Z, and Nickelback. This interesting article also notes that a lot of the folks tied up in the Tidal streaming service are likewise in on the LiveNation deal, including some not mentioned already like Jack White, Rihanna, Kanye West, Coldplay, Jason Aldean, Beyonce, Usher, Nicki Minaj, and Madonna. I can't find a definitive list of all 350 they manage/promote, but let's just go with the group named thus far.
The LiveNation website says they now manage 350 artists, so who freaking actually knows who all might be up for this. I can't find the part of their website that previously listed their "Stable of Global Icons," which I suspect means that they've outgrown the ability to list just a few artists when they have hundreds in their pocket. Hell, even just a listing of all the companies they fully or partially now own is staggeringly long. Their 2015 annual report lists U2, Fleetwood Mac, AC/DC, One Direction, Maroon 5, and Luke Bryan, while this promo page also adds in Aerosmith, Arcade Fire, Jimmy Buffett, Kings of Leon, Weezer, Jay-Z, and Nickelback. This interesting article also notes that a lot of the folks tied up in the Tidal streaming service are likewise in on the LiveNation deal, including some not mentioned already like Jack White, Rihanna, Kanye West, Coldplay, Jason Aldean, Beyonce, Usher, Nicki Minaj, and Madonna. I can't find a definitive list of all 350 they manage/promote, but let's just go with the group named thus far.
Previously, I have left out some folks in this prediction list because they just don't match up to the ACL vibe. I say that, although who the hell even knows what the ACL vibe is anymore after the year with Weeknd, Deadmau5 and Drake as headliners? And with Beyonce grabbing a headlining spot for this year, stranger things have happened, so maybe Rihanna or Beyonce could show up at ACL.
- U2. Oh man, I'm preemptively very excited about this real possibility. Last year I said it was doubtful, but this year they have already announced a tour that comes through Texas but not to Austin or San Antonio, that tour ends on August 1, and they are booked (by C3) to play Bonnaroo. They'll also be releasing a new album sooner or later this year, so everything looks perfect for them to be here. Really hope so!
- Fleetwood Mac. I would have said that this one feels pretty good, but their website says they have no touring on tap. Also, they've never played any of the big four Festivals since 2011, so there is really no precedence for them showing up here. But that would be a pretty cool, classic music get. In fact, these might be the headliners of the next Desert Trip, now that I think about it. Probably not.
- AC/DC. Played Coach in 2015, so some precedence, but the band has no tour dates on their website, and they seem to be in shambles after having to bring in Axl Rose for the last tour, guitarist quitting for health reasons, and then the bassist announcing his retirement. No.
- One Direction. No. Unless the fest is going through a serious change, no way that this happens.
- Maroon 5. No. Same as above.
- Luke Bryan. No. Similarly to the above two pop groups, but slightly different because while ACL has shown some love for country-centric groups (including the awesome Sunday lineup last year), but I still don't think they are going to bring on a generically Nashville powerhouse guy like this. Don't see a desire from this crowd.
- Aerosmith. I mean, they are still well recognized as a big time band and all, but I still don't see them as an act that I would expect to show up in Austin. They haven't played one of the big four since I've been tracking (2011). Their current tour is all Europe and ends in July. But, Steven Tyler said last year that they would do a big farewell tour in 2017, so I guess there is some possibility that they include a major festival date in that final hurrah? Maybe, but I doubt it.
- Arcade Fire. Here is one that is pretty interesting. The band said previously that they may release a new album this spring. They're a large enough band to be a headliner, although not the #1 headliner, more like a #4-6. Their touring schedule includes only festivals in Europe - Primavera, Isle of Wights, Roskilde, etc. - and no normal concert dates. This "tour" is done by July, but I get the feeling that they could release the new album with a tour announcement and then jump in to do Lolla (Aug. 3-5) and ACL (Oct. 6). Feel good about it.
- Jimmy Buffett. No. I'd love it, but this guy can sell out the biggest stadiums in the world in a heart beat with crazy parrot people, so I doubt he'd need to or want to mess with a festival.
- Kings of Leon. The band just released a new album in October, which puts them in line to play a big tour and some festivals this coming year. They last played ACL in 2013, so I think that is a big enough gap to be welcomed back. Their weird website shows the end of the American leg of their current tour, and then some European dates before some festival shows in Florida and Europe, before that ends in July. So, like Arcade Fire, I can see them adding Lolla in August and ACL in October to their lineup. Feel good about this one too.
- Weezer. They released a new album in March 2016 (White Album) and I don't see any news about a new album coming out this year. However, they are touring this year, with some Canada dates and then several smaller festivals that end in mid-July. So, they've got the time to do Lolla and ACL. They played ACL in 2012, and haven't played a big four since, so I guess it might be time, but I don't feel any real buzz that would make me expect this to happen. Doubt it.
- Jay-Z. No upcoming live shows listed. Despite some kind of weak-looking rumors back in August, I don't see any news about a new album. He also hasn't played a big four fest. Doubt it.
- Nickelback. Hahahahaha. The fact that LiveNation hasn't scoured this name from their website is hilarious. Is there a bigger musical punchline than Nickelback these days? Maybe Milli Vanilli? No.
- Jack White. Sure, why not? He was at ACL for 2012, and has previously come through as White Stripes and Raconteurs, and then has done other big 4 appearances since. But I see no news of a new album or new project right now, and his website says no shows booked at the moment. I seem to recall news that he was taking a hiatus? No.
- Rihanna. No. Again, just so outside of the norm for this festival, I can't see it happening. Also, she has no tour happening right now. Although who knows, I would have said the same thing about the Weeknd previously, or Beyonce playing Coachella this year, so maybe things are changing...
- Kanye West. Saint Pablo is old-ish, his tour ended on December 31, and so there are no real indications pointing to him being here. Also, I wouldn't be excited anymore about seeing him, unless he committed to playing only his first two albums and not the more recently meandering blurg, so no. No.
- Coldplay. I was certain that they would play last year, as part of their big world tour and supporting their new album, but no such luck. This year? They are still out there touring on that 2016 album, with a bunch of Asian shows on tap in March/April, then more Europe from then to mid-July, and then some more US shows from August 1 to October 8. They could play Lolla on Saturday night, but are booked to be in Boston on Friday night and DC on Sunday night, so that looks doubtful AND they play Chicago anyway on Aug. 17. Then while they don't play Dallas, Austin, or San Antonio on this tour, they have a Wednesday show in CA and then a Sunday show in CA, so it would be theoretically possible for them to shoehorn a trip to Austin to play Friday night, that seems unlikely. But it could happen. I'll give this one a weak maybe.
- Jason Aldean. No, see Luke Bryan above.
- Beyonce. Sincerely doubt this, even though she is playing Coachella. It would be cool, I think, to see her, but she just doesn't match up to what we would expect from ACL. Her tour ended in October, so she won't be travelling this year (except for Coach).
- Nicki Minaj. Another I highly doubt. Not that ACL doesn't support rappers, or even female rappers (shout out to LIZZO from last year!), but she hasn't released an album in a while and has no tour dates listed on her site. She joked about a new album release in October 2016, but made clear it was just a joke. No.
- Usher. No. Not ACL music at all, although again, with the Weeknd somehow being considered ACL tunes, what do I know?
- Madonna. Every year, I manage to talk myself into this. It would be so super rad to see her play her classics. If she played "Crazy For You," you'll just have to forgive me if I cry the entire time thinking of what could have been in third grade, but when she plays "Into the Groove," I'mma be a-ight and I might dance myself into a heart attack. Oh, will she come here? Sincerely doubt it. No new music on tap, her last tour ended March 2016, and she's not one who plays the festivals. So I'm just going to save myself the heartbreak this year and say No.
Confident potential picks moving on from this post:
- Metallica
- Red Hot Chili Peppers
- Arcade Fire
- Kings of Leon
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