Predicting ACL 2017: Critical Darlings

This is one of my favorite posts to do, in part because I get to revisit the awesome spreadsheet done by Rob Mitchum that takes all of the top/reputable best album of the year lists and mashes them together into a mega list of the consensus best music of the year. Love it.  Usually I use it to do an end-of-year post, but missed out on it in 2016.  But, I have also found it useful in determining artists who might show up at ACL, with the thought being that critically acclaimed artists are more likely to be hot the next year and get named to the ACL lineup.

I first found Mitchum's spreadsheet through the Rock Critic Hivemind article that came out in 2014.  I've talked about this article a lot. If I had all the time in the world, I'd love to make something similar every year, but thankfully he is a data nerd like me and just keeps on making it.  I love him.  Although he loves Phish more than I find healthy.  Here is the 2016 spreadsheet.

Now, obviously, using this list goes for a more universal angle at critical love.  This takes everyone's thoughts into account, including non-US sources.  So we may be getting data from sources that the ACL folks would never ever look to.  The ACL booking folks may be looking at best of lists by some obscure blogger, or Austin-centric sources like The Chronicle, Waterloo Records, and the Statesman.  I dunno.  But I still think that getting the consensus picks for best of the year can shed some light on the potential lineup choices.

Here's a look at history:  in each year I'll check the year of that well-received album and the year after.  And I'm sticking to just the top 30 in each year, just because I have to limit this and not entirely lose my eyesight or fire up carpal tunnel.  Here is what I found:

With regard to the 2014 Top 30 Albums:

• Some top artists in the year end rankings got no big festival sets.  Sharon Van Etten, Aphex Twin, and Sun Kill Moon were all among the top ten of the critical darling list, but none played the big 4 festivals in 2014/2015.  Eight of the top 30 total artists had no show at any of the big 4 in either 2014 or 2015.
• In 2014, 10 of the top 30 2014 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.  So only 1/3, which isn't a real strong correlation.
• 5 of those 10 were booked for ACL, though, which is strong. (St. Vincent, Mac DeMarco, Spoon, Lana Del Rey, and Real Estate). ACL had the closest connection, as Lolla, Coach, and Roo each only had 3.  
• The next year, in 2015, 18 of the top 30 2014 artists scored a big Four Festival slot - a much stronger connection.  So maybe the critical love has to percolate a year before the artists can get booked to play a Fest.
• However, only two of those came to ACL (Sturgill and Run the Jewels), which is kind of crazy. The runaway winner for the Festival booking last year's top album artists was Cochella, with 14 of the 18 playing Coachella.  That looks like a strong connection. Lolla had five and Roo had ten.

With regard to the 2015 Top 30 Albums:

• More of the top ten got shows, as only two (9th place Sleater-Kinney and 10th place Bjork) didn't have any big four festival dates in 2015 or 2016.  Eleven total artists in the 2015 top 30 were blanked for big four festival dates in 2015/2016.
• In 2015, again, 10 of the top 30 2015 artists had a slot in one of the big 4 festivals.
• However, this time, 7 of those 10 were booked to ACL for 2015 (Tame Impala, Father John Misty, Vince Staples, Kurt Vile, Drake, Alabama Shakes, Chance the Rapper (Donnie Trumpet album)).  So even better than the year before.  Coach had 5, Roo had 4, and Lolla had 3.  So maybe ACL is the festival with the better chance to book artists with excellent albums of the year because, as just about the last fest of the year, they get more time to figure out what's good and plug it in.  Or maybe the booking people are just better.
• In 2016, 16 of the top 30 2015 artists played a big four festival show. Slightly down from the year before, but over 50% is pretty strong.
• However, only one of those came to ACL for 2016 (Kendrick Lamar), which again shows a pretty weak connection here between last year's top albums being booked to be at this year's ACL.  Instead, the C3 people are apparently going to slip out a crystal ball and predict who will be the best artists of 2017 before its even happened.  Of the other fests, Coach had 8, Roo had 8, and Lolla had 4 top 2015 artists play their 2016 festival.

How did I do last year with this metric?  I got pretty much all of them right.  I was one of two for the ones I thought would come (Kendrick and Sufjan) and then correctly called the rest of them not coming.  I had a couple of waffling predictions, like "it could happen" or "makes some sense," so I'll try to do better this year.

We likely won't see repeats of the seven who were here in 2016, so we'd be looking at the following potential matches:

• David Bowie.  Uhhh, no.  Unless they do one of those obnoxious holograms, but I'd think this is too soon for that.
• Frank Ocean.  Yeah, I guess this would be something that ACL might do.  He played Roo in 2014, but isn't scheduled to do Coach or Roo this year.  he is doing Hangout, Sasquatch, Primavera, Panorama, and some other festivals, so he's up for that type of experience.  He does not appear to have a real tour going on, just these festival dates. So he appears to have the time to be there.  I wouldn't say this excites me that much if he is going to be a headliner, but maybe he'll be down the poster a few rows for me. But I honestly don't think he makes that much sense for ACL, so I'll say no.  Might be wrong.
• Solange.  Doubt this one.  Just not the normal crowd for her type of music, to me. Essentially play the same R&B stuff as Ocean.  Between the two I'd expect Ocean, I guess I just feel like a semi-rap R&B guy like him is more likely.  Another artists who has no real tour this year, but is playing a handful of the smaller festivals (Okeechobee, Boston Calling, Primavera, Panorama).  None of these are C3 booked, so I doubt it.
• Radiohead.  Nope.  Here last year.
• Beyonce.  Man, I never would have thought that she would get added to any of the big festivals.  She can sell out any stadium right now, so you don't expect her to be on the festival circuit.  With no other current tour dates, and no other festival dates scheduled, I doubt that we get her in Austin.  [edit - now that she is apparently pregnant with twins (Red Grass and Green Lotus, I'm sure) there is no way she'll be here in October to perform.]
• Angel Olsen.  She'll be here in Austin in a week or so, playing the Mohawk for two sold out shows, so she's got local demand and a tour going on.  She's also playing Trees in Dallas (a C3 booked joint).  Like others, she's playing Primavera, Roskilde, and Panorama, as well as some other European fests.  The tour and fest dates peters out before October, so I'm going to go with yes.
• A Tribe Called Quest.  No.  I'd love to see them tour, but they seemed pretty clear that they were going to just release that last album and then be done.
• Kanye West.  Last here in 2011, so he could definitely come back to the Fest.  Recently played the Erwin Center in Austin, and I heard blah reviews.  No longer on tour.  Not playing other festivals (that I can find).  No.
• Bon Iver.  This one feels like a likely candidate. On tour behind this album, playing Coachella, Boston Calling, Primavera, and something in Minneapolis called Rock the Garden.  Very much the kind of artists that ACL would book, feels pretty good to me.
• Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds.  Hmmmm.  Here's something weird.  Googling "Nick Cave tour" gets you a google result that says he is playing Austin on Monday, June 19. If he was playing Austin in June, that seems pretty close to the festival to have a separate show.  But his website shows that he is actually playing Utah on June 19 and does not have an Austin show.  I'm going to make a random call here and decide that this means he is actually coming to ACL.  Yes.
• Chance the Rapper.  No.  Was just here two years ago and I doubt they'd bring him right back.  He is playing Roo this year, so he's back out on tour...
• ANOHNI.  Whatever this is, they/it are not playing a tour this year.  I say no.
• Danny Brown.  He was on tour last year, and played Emo's in October.  No other future tour dates on his website except for something in the UK in August.  Doubt it.
• Anderson.Paak.  No, was here last year.
• Mitski.  She's touring Europe now until coming back to the states in April for more touring, but none of that comes to Austin.  She's booked for Coachella, Primavera, Panorama, and Boston Calling, so she's out there doing the festival thing.  She feels like the kind of person who would play ACL, indie rock and strongly feminine.  I'll go with yes.  Oh, and if you haven't listened to "Your Best American Girl," you should go do it now.  She's going to crush your heart.
• Leonard Cohen.  Uhhh, no.
• Rihanna.  I don't see this one happening.  Despite Beyonce doing a fest, Rihanna just doesn't make any sense at ACL.
• KAYTRANADA.  Booked for Coachella.  Also booked for Sasquatch and something called Lightning in a Bottle.  But no other touring.  Like Danny Brown, he played Emo's at the end of 2016.  Nah, not feeling it.  Kind of cool music, but I see nothing on the web that would lead me to think ACL would book the guy.  But the music matches something you'd see here, so maybe the Emo's show was a taste test and now they'll sign him up for the real thing?  Maybe.
• Car Seat Headrest.  Yes.  Well, the definite nature of that proclamation is mainly wishful thinking, because I'd love for him to show up.  Oh, and he's playing all the festivals. Coach, Roo, Governors, Shaky Knees (c3 booked), Sasquatch, Boston Calling, . Touring Australia right now, then a little Europe before his festival run, but no dates on calendar after August 8.  I say lock this one in.
• Blood Orange.  No tour, but playing some tiny festivals.  Played Roo last year, played Lolla and Coachella in 2014.  I guess he'll play a fest, but I see nothing that leads me to believe he'd be here this year.  No.
• Kendrick Lamar.  No, here last year.
• Young Thug.  Man, I hope not.  he was at Sound on Sound last year, and I doubt that he'd be back to another Austin fest so soon, but he is playing a few small fests this spring and summer.  I'll say no.
• The 1975.  Another band that would really shock me if they were on the poster for ACL, just not the type of music I'd expect here.  On the pro side, they are playing the south American Lolla shows.  On the con side, they are playing two nights in Austin in April.  Playing a few small festivals, and played Lolla and Coach last year.  I'm going with no.
• Sturgill Simpson.  Nah.  I wish he would, I'd love to see him for a fourth time, but he was just here in 2015 (when he played all four big fests) and he has no tour dates on his calendar.  Don't see it happening.
• Jenny Hval.  No clue what this even is.  The picture she has on google is of her with a plastic bag on her head.  Mmmkay.  Playing Austin (the Barracuda) on May 29, so I'd guess no on booking her for ACL.  No.
• Parquet Courts.  On a little bit of tour this year, ending on Feb. 9.  They were here in 2013, so there is precedent to bring them back, but I don't see anything online or hear any buzz about them that would make me think they'll be here.  No.
• Nicholas Jaar.  Never heard of this guy before, he is apparently a Chilean-American composer, who does kind of Latin-inflected EDM stuff?  He is playing Coachella, Primavera, and Panorama, and his tour ends before ACL, so he could be there.  I have no reason to suspect he'd be there, but then again, this would fall into the sweet spot ACL inhabits now of EDM love and Texas' latin roots, so maybe this makes sense.  I'll step out on a limb and say yes.
• Skepta.  English rapper guy who has at least one good song I've heard.  Playing Governor's Ball, Primavera, and Lolla Paris, but otherwise doesn't have a tour.  I guess he could end up here, but I have no reason to think he'd come do it.  I'll say no.
• James Blake.  Hope not.  I wouldn't say I liked his last album too much.  He has a few tiny festival dates, stuff I've never heard of before in Toluca, Mexico, Gdynia, Poland, and Rotselaar, Belgium.  Going with a solid no here.
• Margo Price.  Nope, here last year.

It appears that I've identified quite a few more people in this list to come to ACL thna would be normal.  Angel Olsen, Bon Iver, Nick Cave, Mitski, Car Seat Headrest, and Nicolas Jaar.  Looks like a terrible lineup to me (save for Car Seat Headrest), but I'm more than likely entirely wrong, right?